摘要
本文所探討的重點是以Nordhaus(1975)的模型為出發，來分析內閣制政治景氣循環。由Nordhaus模型的假設，引進不確定因素 ，以動態最適控制的方法來求得內閣制下失業率的最適控制路徑 ，並且將兩者的結論作比較，解釋其經濟意涵。內閣制下的政治景氣循環會比總統制下(Nordhaus)的政治景氣循環具有較高的選舉頻率、較低的振幅。此外，就社會福利的觀點來看，對於選民面對兩種類型的政治景氣循環時，其福利變化的優劣，乃是取決於選民的偏好。

Abstract
Based upon the Nordhaus' model, we can analyze the political business cycle (PBC) of parliamentarian system. This is our point in this paper. Adding an uncertain factor in the Nordhaus' assumptions, we can get unemployment rate of optimal control path by using the dynamic optimal control theory. Comparing these two results, the model of political business cycle of parliamentarian system has higher elective frequency and lower amplitude in the unemployment rate of optimal control path. From the social welfare point of view, which one is better is hard to say? The social welfare is decided by voters' preferences when voters face these two type of PBC.

Keywords: Political business cycle (PBC). Parliamentarian system. The optimal

目錄

第一章 研究動機 2
第一節 序言….……………………………………………………….… 2
第二節 政治景氣循環的基本模型….……………………………….… 4
第三節 美國經濟與總統大選………….…………………………….… 6

第二章 文獻回顧 8
第一節 貨幣政策方面….…………………………………………….… 8
第二節 模型設計方面……………….……………………………….…11

第三章 模型設定 15
第一節 政治景氣循環的建構…….………………………………….…15
第二節 多數決的中間策略………….……………………………….…19

第四章 內閣制的政治景氣循環 28
第一節 動態最適控制.……………………………………………….…28
第二節 選舉的不確定性…………….……………………………….…32
第三節 經濟分析……………………….…………………………….…34
第四節 新經濟與大蕭條的模型….………………………………….…37

第五章 結論與未來研究方向 44
第一節 結論…….…………………………………………………….…44
第二節 未來研究方向…………………………………………………..46

參考文獻 48




圖目錄

圖一 總和投票函數….…………..………………..……….…. 5
圖二 偏好低失業率的政治景氣循環….…………..………...18
圖三 高通貨膨脹、低失業率型政治景氣循環……………..19
圖四 選民訴求不一致的政治景氣循環(狀況一)……….…20
圖五 菲利普變動量..……………………………..…..……..21
圖六 菲利普變動量偏好的分布(狀況一)………………….22
圖七 選民訴求不一致的政治景氣循環(狀況二)………….23
圖八 菲利普變動量偏好的分布(狀況二)………………….24
圖九 選民訴求一致的政治景氣循環(狀況一)…………….25
圖十 菲利普變動量偏好的分布(狀況一)………………..…25
圖十一 選民訴求一致的政治景氣循環(狀況二)………….26
圖十二 菲利普變動量偏好的分布(狀況二).…………..…26
圖十三 預期政策實現變動率強度的分析………………….30
圖十四 總統制與內閣制政治景氣循環的比較…………….36
圖十五 新經濟的政治景氣循環………………………….…40
圖十六 大蕭條的政治景氣循環…………………………….41

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