根據國人十大民怨統計，總體經濟不振、物價上漲率過高和房價高漲通通入榜。痛苦指數年年不斷上升，過高的房價讓民眾越來越難以負擔。本研究將以縣市合併後之五大都會區為主要研究對象，欲觀察其五都之每坪成交價大幅成長是否深受貸款利率、經常性所得、失業率及政府歲出等總體經濟變數影響。而選取之總體經濟變數，亦採用個別區域資料作辨別，以提高實證之準確性。由民國八十九年第一季至民國一○一年第二季之季資料，以單根檢定、共整合分析、因果關係檢定、衝擊反應分析及預測誤差變異數分解進行實證分析，以觀察總體經濟變數對於房地產價格之影響、短期動態調整及是否存在長期均衡關係。
實證結果主要結論如下：(1)中北部區域之房價比南部區域更顯著受到總體經濟變數響。(2)政府歲出對於都會區房價有領先趨勢。(3) 而五大都會區的房價對於失業率之衝擊反應均呈現負向反應，意味著當失業率上升時，房價會因為經濟景氣衰退而有負向之影響。政府歲出方面，則呈現南北分歧的情況，北部區域為負向反應，而中南部區域則呈現正向反應。

There’s a survey revealed that depression of macro- economic, high inflation rate, and high real estate price have been in the list of Top 10 Complaints in Taiwan. Misery index has been rising every year. Furthermore, people can’t afford high real estate prices. This study will show that how the dramatic growth of real estate prices in five major municipalities, which are indicated as Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taichung City, Tainan City and Kaohsiung City, is affected by macro-economic variables such as property loan interest rate, constant income, unemployment rate and government expenditure etc. These variables are isolated data from the five major municipalities to improve the accuracy of empirical research. Based on the data from the first season of 2000 to second season of 2012, I use ADF unit root test, Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, to do the empirical analyzing, and observe how macro- economic variables affects real estate prices, short-run dynamics and to show if there’s long-run equilibrium relationship.
The following are the major conclusion of empirical research：1.The real estate price in northern and middle Taiwan are significantly more affected than in southern Taiwan. 2.Government expenditure leads the change of real estate prices. 3.The real estate price has a negative correlation with unemployment rate, which means when unemployment rate goes up, housing price will go down because of depression. For the relationship between government expenditure and real estate prices, there are different situations between northern and southern Taiwan. In the north, they have negative correlation. On the other hand, in the middle and the south they have positive correlation.

論文審定書...............................................................................................................i
誌謝........................................................................................................................ii
中文摘要.................................................................................................................iii
英文摘要.................................................................................................................iv
第 一 章 緒論..........................................................................................................1
1.1 研究背景........................................................................................................1
1.2 研究動機與目的..............................................................................................2
1.3 研究範圍........................................................................................................3
1.4 研究流程........................................................................................................7
第 二 章 文獻回顧與探討.........................................................................................9
2.1 國外相關文獻.................................................................................................9
2.2 國內相關文獻................................................................................................11
第 三 章 研究方法與模型設定.................................................................................14
3.1 單根檢定......................................................................................................14
3.2 向量自我迴歸模型.........................................................................................16
3.3 共整合檢定...................................................................................................17
3.4 向量誤差修正模型.........................................................................................20
3.5 衝擊反應分析................................................................................................21
3.6 預測誤差變異數分解......................................................................................21
3.7 Granger因果關係...........................................................................................22
3.8 變數資料說明及處理......................................................................................26
第 四 章 實證結果分析...........................................................................................32
4.1 台北市之實證分析.........................................................................................32
4.2 新北市之實證分析.........................................................................................39
4.3 台中市之實證分析.........................................................................................46
4.4 台南市之實證分析.........................................................................................52
4.5 高雄市之實證分析.........................................................................................58
4.6 小結.............................................................................................................66
第 五 章 結論與建議..............................................................................................69
5.1 研究結論......................................................................................................69
5.2 後續研究之建議............................................................................................70
參考文獻...............................................................................................................71

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