螺絲螺帽（扣件Fasteners ）號稱工業之米，主要用於汽車、電器、機械、營造、建築等耐久財之上，而耐久財除房屋建築較屬區域性商品外，絕大多數皆係以全球為市場之全球性商品。全球性商品迫於全球競爭，已形成體系與體系、供應鏈與供應鏈間之競爭。個別企業全球競爭力之提升已無法完全仰賴內部組織之資源與能力達成，必需跨越企業之邊界，與供應鏈下游客戶及上游供應廠商協同運作，共同提升供應鏈整體之全球競爭力以謀存活發展。以目前全球扣件業供應鏈管理趨勢以Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)供應商管理庫存模式為核心，台灣號稱螺絲王國，自不能忽略全球扣件市場營運的趨勢。
本研究目的欲以系統動力學擅長於研究動態性複雜系統的特性，分析扣件業供應鏈在VMI模式及加入同步化模式下的運作機制及結構，個別建置動態模型，模擬整體供應鏈運作，比較二種模式之優劣。並依據扣件業主要營運條件及需求型態，以本研究所建構的模型發展成扣件業實施VMI模式之決策支援工具。
本研究結論發現(1) 扣件業供應鏈VMI模式加入同步化模式後可提高企業營運績效(2) 建立VMI模式加入同步化的設計原則及步驟。
本研究貢獻有二，(1)於VMI模式模型中加入同步化流徑搭配方式，實證結合同步化模式，可讓VMI模式的效能更佳。(2) 建立VMI模式加入同步化的設計原則及步驟，可作為實施VMI營運模式的產業加入同步化模式設計步驟之參考。

The screw nut (Fasteners) is known as the “Rice of Industry”. It is mainly applied on durable products such as automobile, electric apparatus, machinery, construction and building. Most of the durable products belong to the global products except the construction and building, which belong to regional. Due to the global competition, the competitions among the systems and supply chains have been formed. The improvement of the individual enterprise is not able to rely on the resource and ability of that organization only. It should operate across the border of the enterprises, and operate cooperatively with the downstream clients of the supply chains and the upstream manufacturers in order to improve the global competitiveness of the supply chain and seek for further development. Nowadays, the Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) is the core of the trend of supply chain management (SCM) of global Fasteners industry. Taiwan is known as the empire of screw nut and it is not possible to neglect the operation trend of the global Fasteners market.

This study attempts utilizing the characteristics of the System Dynamics, for which it is excellent on studying dynamic complicated system, to analyze the operation mechanism and structure of the Fasteners supply chain under VMI mode and applying synchronized mode. The individual dynamic model will be established to simulate the overall operation of the supply chain and compare the advantages and disadvantages of the two models. In addition, according to the major operation conditions and the demanding types, the model established by this study is utilized to develop the decision-making support tool for implementation of VMI mode of Fasteners industry.

The conclusion of this study include (1) adding the synchronized model to Fasteners supply chain VMI mode can improve the operation performance of the enterprise, (2) to establish the design principle and steps of adding the design of synchronization to VMI mode.

There are two contributions in this study: (1) the collocation of adding synchronization to the VMI mode model has proved that the combination with the synchronization mode can improve the performance of VMI mode. (2) The design principle and steps of adding the design of synchronization to VMI mode can be the reference for design steps of adding synchronization mode to the industry that implements VMI operation mode.

1.緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 3
1.3研究限制 3
1.4研究架構與流程 4
1.5論文架構 6
2.文獻探討 7
2.1供應鏈管理 7
2.1.1供應鏈管理定義 7
2.1.2供應鏈管理所面臨的問題與不確定性 9
2.1.3供應鏈績效 15
2.2 VMI 17
2.2.1 VMI定義 17
2.2.2 適合採用VMI的物料種類 18
2.2.3 VMI效益、關鍵成功因素、營運條件差異 21
2.3系統動力學 23
2.3.1動態性複雜 23
2.3.2系統動力學簡介 24
2.3.3系統動力學的理論基礎 26
2.4同步化流徑搭配方法 27
2.4.1同步化流徑搭配定義及其理論基礎 27
2.4.2同步化流徑搭配方法的設計原則 37
2.4.3同步化流徑搭配關係的設計步驟 40
3.扣件業產業體系營運概況 44
3.1全球扣件市場概述 44
3.1.1未來需求面之變化走勢 44
3.1.2供應面之變化與未來趨勢 48
3.2國內扣件業概述 51
3.3產業上、中、下游之關聯性 53
3.4個案公司簡介 55
4.系統動力學模型建構與應用 57
4.1系統動力學建模 57
4.1.1 扣件業供應鏈VMI模式系統邊界 58
4.1.2 扣件業供應鏈VMI模式因果回饋分析 59
4.1.3 扣件業供應鏈VMI模式模型線流圖及方程式 60
4.1.4 加入同步化搭配流徑系統線流圖及方程式 83
4.1.5 模型基本模擬 88
4.2模型效度測試 92
4.2.1模型效度測試理論 92
4.2.2模型效度測試結果 93
5.情境分析與政策模擬 98
5.1情境與政策說明 98
5.1.1情境設定內容說明 100
5.1.2情境政策模擬參數值及方程式變化 101
5.2情境模擬一、客戶耗用率為定值需求（FIX） 102
5.3情境模擬二、客戶耗用率為定值波動需求（SINWAVE） 108
5.4情境模擬三、客戶耗用率為線性遞增需求（RAMP） 114
5.5情境模擬四、客戶耗用率為步階突增需求（STEP） 120
5.6小結 126
6.結論與後續研究建議 127
6.1研究結論與貢獻 127
6.2後續研究及建議 129
7.參考文獻 130

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