二氧化碳為造成全球暖化與海平面上升的溫室氣體中最重要的成份，據研究發現賴於發電的火力機組為最大的二氧化碳排放源，其將使得大氣層中的熱量無法逸散至外太空，進而造成全球溫度逐漸上升。為了避免溫室氣體排放所造成的全球暖化效應，溫室氣體排放配額交易有了其合法性，且將成為一個新興的交易市場。本論文之研究重點聚焦於公用電力事業之動態經濟調度議題與溫室氣體配額交易市場模型進行研究，並將以導入配額交易市場機制後，考慮風能及太陽能發電之動態經濟調度問題為主題進行研究。

本論文將ㄧ改良式粒子群最佳化演算法-具時變性質加速度粒子群最佳化演算法(PSO-TVAC)用以求解公用發電業、獨立發電業與風力機組併存下，考慮配額交易市場之公用發電業之動態經濟調度策略。規劃各小時之發電量之同時，其必須將獨立發電業參與後所帶來的利益與碳交易買賣對環境污染的影響等因素皆納入考量。本論文之研究將著重於導入配額交易市場機制後之電廠擴建規劃問題，溫室氣體的減排將不再以外部成本(如：空污稅等)的方式來看待，而將視為是ㄧ種電廠營運必須之內部成本。污染排放須先行購得排放配額，多餘的配額將得以轉售至交易市場中，反之，若配額短缺，則須於排放前於交易市場中先行購得足量的排放配額。最後，本論文為了避免原粒子群最佳化演算法可能會有過早收斂的缺點，導入PSO-TVAC法整合後，根據本文的測量可大幅提昇整體求解之效率。

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important component of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) that causes global warming and sea-level rising. Thermal power plants dominate electric power generation in the world, and has been reported to be the major contributor of CO2 emission. To prevent the related global warming caused by GHG emission, carbon quota trading is implemented and becomes a gradually arising market. This thesis proposed a research focused on the relationship between the carbon trading scheme and dynamic economic dispatch (DED) problem for the public utility. A model of the carbon trading market was investigated and introduced into DED problem incorporating wind and solar power plant.
A refined particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, PSO with time-varying acceleration coefficients (PSO-TVAC), is applied to determine the DED strategy with the incorporation of independent power providers (IPPs) and green power plant. The model of the carbon trading was considered in the DED problem. Carbon reduction is treated as the inner-cost of utility, and the fictitious carbon quotas can be resold to the market, while the energy shortage can be satisfied by purchasing quotas from the market. In order to avoid premature convergence of the original PSO, the PSO-TVAC method is introduced to improve the searching efficiency.

摘要..…………………………………..…………………………i
Abstract.……...………………………..………………………...ii
目錄..………………...…………………………………………..iii
圖次..………………….…..……………………………………..vi
表次…..……………….....………..……………………………viii

第一章 緒論..…………………………...…..………………....1
1.1 研究背景及動機..………………....…………………....…1
1.2 研究方法與目的......……………………..…...………...…2
1.3 論文架構..………………..…………..……………………3

第二章 碳交易與電力市場架構……………..………………5
2.1 碳交易市場架構………………..………...………..……..5
2.1.1 碳排放減量機制………………..…….……..……...…7
2.1.2 碳排放交易機制………………...............…..……...…8
2.2 電力市場架構………………..……….………………....10
2.2.1 自由化電力市場………………..…………...…..…...10
2.2.2 購電模型………………..…………...……………….12

第三章 風力發電機與太陽能發電…………..……….…….14
3.1 風力發電機原理……………...…………………………14
3.2韋伯風速分佈特性之機率及參數估計模型………...….17
3.3 短期風速預測與最小平方迴歸分析………………...…20
3.4 太陽能發電原理與特性模型…………………...………23

第四章 動態經濟調度與電力潮流數學模型…………….....27
4.1 動態經濟調度問題描述...................................................27
4.2 電力潮流...........................................................................30
4.3 碳排放交易.......................................................................42
4.4 最佳化演算法…………………….........................……..44
4.4.1 粒子群最佳化演算法…………………….........…….44
4.4.2 具時變性質加速系數粒子群最佳化演算法(PSO-
TVAC)….…..……...................................................…48
4.5 應用PSO-TVAC於動態經濟調度問題之測試.........…...50

第五章 系統測試與案例分析…………...........…………….54
5.1 考慮再生能源發電量之動態經濟調度測試...…………59
5.2 考慮獨立發電業者之動態經濟調度測試……...........…64
5.3 考慮獨立發電業者與再生能源之動態經濟調度測
試…...............................................................................…67
5.4 考慮碳配額與獨立發電業者以及再生能源之案例測
試……………….......................................................……72
5.5 各模擬案例之探討……………...............………………78

第六章 結論與未來研究方向………….......……………….83
6.1 結論……………...................……………………………83
6.2 未來研究方向……….......................……………………84

參考文獻………............................……………………………86
附錄……...............................................……………………….90

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