應用類神經網路於電力系統負載之溫度敏感度分析

陳智宏* 陳朝順**

國立中山大學電機工程學系

摘　要

用戶負載特性的探討乃是電力系統運作最基本的一環，透過負載特性研究，可以有效掌握各類型用戶之用電特性，提高負載預測之準確性及更有效的支援系統規劃，以降低電力系統容量不足之壓力。

本論文以負載特性調查研究為基礎，以統計學分層隨機抽樣法，於全省12個抽樣區處選擇1315戶各類型具代表性之用戶，以統計分析推導各類型用戶標準化日負載模式，配合台電用戶資訊系統(CIS)之售電資料，推估區處各類型用戶日負載組成。整合全省12個抽樣區處各類型用戶之標準化日負載模式及台電系統各類型用戶售電資料，推估台電系統各類型用戶日負載組成。同時應用類神經網路訓練之方法，學習各類型用戶耗電量與溫度及溼度之關係，探討北市區處、鳳山區處及台電系統之溫度敏感度。藉由溫度敏感度分析可知冷氣空調佔比較高的類型用戶，其耗電量會隨著溫度變化而有明顯變動，因此商業化較高的北市區處之溫度敏感度，遠較工業化高的鳳山區處之溫度敏感度為高。對台電系統而言，透過用戶負載的溫度敏感度分析，能夠了解負載變動的範圍，並提供各區處供電及未來容量規劃之參考。


*作者 **指導教授

The Temperature Sensitivity Analysis of Power System Load Demand with Neural Networks

Chih-Hung Chen* Chao-Shun Chen**

Institute of Electrical Engineering
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Kaohsiung, Taiwan, R.O.C.

ABSTRACT

The analysis of customer load characteristic plays the fundamental role of power system operation. Based on the load survey study, the load pattern of each customer class is derived to achieve more effective load forecast for system planning to reduce the risk of system capacity shortage.

For the load survey study, a stratified sampling method has been used to select the proper size of customers for meter installation to collect the customer power consumption. By the way, the customer load patterns derived can represent the load behavior of whole customer population. The standardized daily load pattern of each customer class has been solved with the mean per-unit method of customer load. According to the total power consumption by all customers within the same class and considering the corresponding daily load pattern, the daily load profile of the customer class is then determined. The standard daily load pattern of each customer class and total power consumption within the territory of service districts of Taipower system are integrated to construct Taipower system daily load profile. The temperature sensitivity analysis of customer power consumption is performed for each customer class by applying neural networks. The proposed method has been used to investigate the change of power consumption due to temperature rise for each district and Taipower system. For the districts with high ratio of the air conditioner loading, the increase of power consumption is in proportion to the temperature. It is concluded that the research of temperature sensitivity on power consumption can support power system operation and better capacity planning of power system in the future.


*Author **Advisor

目　錄
摘要 i
Abstract iii
目錄 v
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 x

第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究背景及目的 1
1-2 研究步驟 5
1-3 各章節概要 8

第二章 負載特性調查 9
2-1 前言 9
2-2 統計抽樣調查 10
2-2-1主軸分析 11
2-2-2群集分析 15
2-3 台電系統分層隨機抽樣 20
2-4 電表異常耗電資料處理 24

第三章 負載模式與組成推估 29
3-1 前言 29
3-2 日負載模式推估 29
3-3 區處日負載組成推估 36
3-4 台電系統日負載組成推估 42

第四章 類神經網路介紹 48
4-1 前言 48
4-2 類神經網路之發展 48
4-3 神經元之數學模式 49
4-4 網路架構 55
4-5 類神經網路學習法則 57
4-5-1倒傳遞式演算法 57
4-5-2 Levenberg-Marquardt 演算法 60
4-6 適時停止 63
4-7 合議機制 66

第五章 負載溫度敏感度分析 68
5-1 前言 68
5-2 應用類神經網路於溫度敏感度分析 68
5-3 各類型用戶溫度敏感度分析 71
5-4 區處溫度敏感度分析 75
5-5 台電系統溫度敏感度分析 83

第六章 結論與未來研究方向 87
6-1 前言 87
6-2 未來研究方向 88

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