在缺少適當理論與方法的輔助下，管理者與設計者對動態問題系統的分析與解釋經常基於蒙昧與錯誤的假設，無法以系統整體觀點進行各政策行動間的動態搭配設計。系統動力學是專門處理動態複雜系統問題的理論、方法、與工具，可建構動態複雜系統背後的問題結構。如何在建構複雜的系統結構後，發展與設計最具槓桿作用的改善政策為系統動力學的重要議題。然而，回顧現有系統動力學高槓桿解設計方法相關研究，可發現絕大多數的高槓桿解設計方法所得出的政策建議往往欠缺實質的管理意義，同時也與系統動力學拆解與建構問題結構的基本觀點有所出入。

針對系統動力學方法所建構出來的問題系統結構，本研究以影響系統狀態變化的流徑為分析單位。在達成系統整體目標的前提下，設計各流徑之間的搭配運作關係，決定系統內所有可控決策的決策規則。這套以流徑搭配設計為基礎的高槓桿解設計方法之核心，在使控制流徑運作的率量決策存取共同的資訊，並設定各流徑在同一時間點產出相同比率或數量的決策規則，使各流徑在運作量與運作時間上達到同步運作搭配的設計方法，故稱為同步化的流徑搭配方法。同步化流徑搭配方法包含四個部份，首先設定系統運作的基調。其次找出並決定與該運作步調同步運作的流徑，設計對應率量的決策函數。接著透過所發展的時間延遲處理機制，補足率量決策函數和實際流徑產出之間因時間延遲所造成的差距。在系統整體目標下設計流徑間的同步搭配關係後，再調整個別積量的期望狀態值。

經過與其他高槓桿解設計方法比較與各類的情境測試之後，本研究證明所發展的同步化流徑搭配方法可應用在成長導向或是穩定導向系統，並兼顧系統績效的改善的有效性與穩健性。這套高槓桿解設計方法除了提供更具改善效果與更具實質意義的政策建議外，也考量時間因素而建立動態高槓桿解設計方法之先驅。

This paper attempts to develop a dynamic alignment approach to leverage design of system dynamics models. The approach developed in this research is a flow-based design, different from traditional macro designs of aggregated system structures or loop analysis. It is grounded on some major concepts in Synchronous management at plants and uses the Drum-Buffer-Rope (DBR) system to align the various operations of rate decisions. This paper takes two famous system dynamics models as examples to examine the performance of the proposed leverage design method. One is the customer-producer-employment model, and the other is the market growth model. Both of the models are developed by Forrester(1961; 1968). By applying the dynamic alignment approach, the redesigned customer-producer-employment system shows that the original oscillation behavior can be fully eliminated, and the redesigned market growth model can sustain its growth pattern instead of stagnation or collapse. By comparison with previous high leverage design methods, the dynamic alignment approach developed in this paper is proved to be more efficient and robust for system redesign in different scenario.

目錄


1.緒論…………………………………………………………………..……….1
1.1. 研究背景與動機…………….……..………………..…………...……1
1.2. 研究目的………………….……..…………………..…………...……4
1.3. 論文架構………………….………………………....…………...……6

2.文獻探討……………..……………………………………………………. 9
2.1.系統動力學高槓桿解設計方法相關文獻………..…………………. 9
2.2. 多決策或多行動間搭配關係設計之相關文獻……….………….. 16
2.2.1. 工作站間搭配關係的設計….….……...……..…………….. 17
2.2.2. 同步化的流徑搭配方式..………..…...…………………..… 21
2.3. 同步化調整控制的重要特性…………….…….………..…………. 27
3. 同步化流程搭配方法的開發…...………………………..…………… 36
3.1. 同步化流徑搭配方法的設計原則………………………..………... 36
3.1.1. 由系統特性建立設計原則…………………………………. 36
3.1.2. 由流程特性建立設計原則……………………….…...……. 39
3.1.3. 由流徑間交互關係之特性建立設計原則……..…………... 43
3.2. 同步化流徑搭配關係的設計步驟…………………………………. 45
3.3. 時間滯延處理機制…………………………………..…….…...…... 51
3.4. 緩衝大小與穩定水平調整機制…….………..………….…………. 56
3.5. 小結…………………………………………………………………. 58
4. 方法的實作與評估…….……...……………………………….………. 59
4.1. 案例模式的選取………………………………..……...…..…….… 59
4.2. 穩定導向系統實作－生產商、雇員、與存貨模式……………… 60
4.2.1. 案例介紹…………..………………………..………………. 60
4.2.2. 方法實作…………………………………..………………... 63
4.2.3. 模擬與評估………………………………..………………... 72
4.3. 成長系統範例－成長與投資不足模式…………………………… 88
4.3.1. 案例介紹……………………………………………………. 88
4.3.2. 方法實作……………………………………………………. 89
4.3.3. 模擬與評估…………………………………………………. 92
4.4. 小結…………………………………………………………….…… 95
5. 結論與後續研究建議……………………………………..…………... 96
5.1. 研究的總結與貢獻…………………....………………..…………... 96
5.2. 研究限制………………………………………………..…………... 98
5.3. 後續研究建議…………………………………………...………….. 99



參考文獻………………………………………………………………….. 101
附錄一「客戶、生產、與雇員系統模式」之方程式……………… 107
附錄二「市場成長模式」之方程式…………………………..……… 117
附錄三、重要專有名詞對照表………………………………………119



圖、表目錄


圖1-1 論文架構 ……………………………………………………………. 7
圖2-1 集中與分散的資訊連接形式 ……………………………………… 22
表2-1 各生產系統的網線連接結構 ……………………………………… 23
圖2-2 系統動力學模式表徵下的比例控制結構………………………….. 28
圖2-3 比例控制中偏誤與操作量的比例關係……………………………. 29
圖2-4 比例控制中控制量的行為..….………….…..….……...…….…….. 30
圖2-5 以系統動力學表徵的積分控制結構 ….………………………… 31
圖2-6 積分控制與PI控制中控制量的變化行為.……..………..………... 31
圖2-7 以系統動力學表徵的微分控制結構……...….…………………….. 32
圖2-8 不同微分控制狀況的控制量變化..…………..….……………….… 33
圖3-1庫存調整系統…..….………..….….………………..……….…….… 37
圖3-2 庫存調整系統的庫存量變化…………………….….....……….…... 37
圖3-3 同步化流徑搭配下之庫存調整系統…….....…….…….…….….…. 38
圖3-4 同步化流徑搭配的庫存量變化……….……………...….……….… 38
圖3-5 具三階時間滯延的庫存調整系統……......…………...……....……. 42
圖3-6 具三階時間滯延的負回饋環行為………..…....……..…......……… 43
圖3-7 控制點的設定(一)…………………….…………………………….. 48
圖3-8 控制點的設定(二)………………….……….…………………….… 48
圖3-9 控制點的設定(三)….…………………….……………………….… 49
圖3-10 流徑間同步化搭配關係設計的進行步驟.………………………... 51
圖3-11 應用同步化流徑搭配方法的三階延遲庫存調整模式…………… 53
圖3-12 應用同步化流徑搭配方法之庫存量變化.………………………... 53
圖3-13 同步化設計之時間滯延處理機制……….………………………... 55
表3-1 時間滯延處理機制之計算程序.…………………………….……… 55
圖3-14 經處理時間滯延後之三階滯延庫存調整變化…………...………. 56
圖3-15 緩衝調整機制……….………...……….………....…………...…… 57
圖3-16 加上緩衝調整機制的庫存量變化……....……..………………….. 58
表4-1 Forrester之系統動力學經典模式…………………………………... 59
圖4-1 客戶、生產商、與雇員系統模式的模擬行為(一)…….………….. 62
圖4-2 客戶、生產商、與雇員系統模式的模擬行為(二)…….…….……. 62
圖4-3 客戶、生產商、與雇員系統模式中各廠商訂單間的關係……….. 63
圖4-4 客戶、生產商、與雇員系統模式中各廠商訂單間的關係……….. 64
圖4-5 送貨率與存貨流之間的關係………………………...…………..…. 66
圖4-6 生產製造與原料採購間關係……………………..…………….…... 67
圖4-7 存貨製造時間滯延的處理方式…………………….………..……... 68
圖4-8 原料採購時間滯延的處理方式…………………………..….…...… 69
圖4-9 存貨平衡水準調整的實作………………………….………..……... 70
圖4-10 原料平衡水準調整的實作………………………….……..………. 71
表4-2 二年性波動下的有效性衡量指標變化…………………………….. 75
圖4-11 下游顧客需求為二年週期變化之現金總量………...……..……... 77
圖4-12 下游顧客需求為二年週期變化之存貨數…………….…..………. 77
圖4-13 下游顧客需求為二年週期變化之投入生產人數…….…………... 78
圖4-14 下游顧客需求為二年週期變化之累積訂單數……….…..………. 79
表4-3 下游顧客需求呈現STEP變化時的主要變數穩定度衡量值……... 80
圖4-15 下游顧客需求呈現STEP變化時的現金總數……..……………... 80
圖4-16 下游顧客需求呈現STEP變化時的存貨數…………….………… 81
圖4-17 下游顧客需求呈現STEP變化時的投入生產人數………………. 81
圖4-18 下游顧客需求呈現STEP變化時的累積訂單數…………………. 82
表4-4 下游顧客需求呈現二年週期變化的主要變數穩定度衡量值…….. 83
圖4-19 下游顧客需求呈現週期性變化時的現金總量…………..……….. 83
圖4-20 下游顧客需求呈現週期性變化時的存貨數……………..….……. 84
圖4-21 下游顧客需求呈現週期性變化時的投入生產人數……...………. 84
表4-5 下游顧客需求呈現持續成長變化的主要變數穩定度衡量值…….. 85
圖4-22 下游顧客需求呈現週期性變化時的累積訂單量………...………. 85
圖4-23 下游顧客需求持續成長時的累積訂單量……………...…………. 86
圖4-24 下游顧客需求持續成長時的投入生產之人數………...…………. 86
圖4-25 下游顧客需求持續成長時的現金總量………………...…………. 87
圖4-26 下游顧客需求持續成長時的存貨數………………..…….………. 87
圖4-27 市場成長與投資不足模式之因果回饋圖………………………… 88
圖4-28 銷售員人數變化…………………………………………………… 92
圖4-29 產能變化…………………………………………………………… 93
圖4-30 累積訂單變化……………………………………………………… 93
圖4-31 市場察覺之交期變化……………………………………………… 94
圖4-32 產能利用率變化…………………………………………………… 95

參考文獻


英文文獻

Ackoff, R.L., Ackoff’s Best: His Classic Writings on Management, 1999, New York: Oxford.
Ackoff, R.L., Re-Creating the Corporation: A Design of Organizations for the 21st Century, 1999, New York: Oxford.
Adair, C.B. and B.A. Murray, Breakthrough Process Redesign: New pathways to Customer Value, 1994, New York: AMACOM.
Anderson, P., “Complexity Theory and Organization Science”, Organization Science, 10(3), 1999, pp. 216-232.
Checkland, P.B., “Science and the Systems Movement”, in Open Systems Group ed. Systems Behaviour, 1981, pp. 26-58, London: Harper and Row.
Cheng, Y. and A.H. Van de Ven, “Learning the Innovation Journey: Order Out of Chaos”, Organization Science, 7(6), 1996, pp. 593-614.
Coyle, R.G., “/the Use of Optimisation Methods, for Policy Design in a System Dynamics Model”, System Dynamics Reviews, 1, 1985, pp. 81-92.
Daft, R.L. and A.Y. Lewin, “Where Are the Theories of the “New” Organizational Forms? An Editorial Essay”, Organization Science, 4(4), 1993, pp.i-vi.
Davenport, T.H. and J.E. Short, “The New Industrial Engineering: Information Technology and Business Process Redesign”, Sloan Management Review, Summer, 1990, pp.11-27.
Dooley, K.J. and A.H. Van de Ven, “Explaining Complex Organizational Dynamics”, Organization Science, 10(3), 1999, pp. 358-372.
Dornor, D., The Logic of Failure: Why Things Go Wrong and What We Can Do to Make Them Right, 1989, Rowohlt Verlag GMBH.
Drucker, P.F., Peter Drucker on the Profession of Management, 1998, Boston: Harvard Business Press.
Evans, R. and A.Danks, “Strategic Supply Chain Management: Creating Shareholder Value by Aligning Supply Chain Strategy with Business Strategy”, in Gattorna J. ed., Strategic Supply Chain Alignment: Best Practice in Supply Chain Management, pp.18-38, Hampshire: Gower Publishing.
Evens, G.N., M.M. Naim, and D.R. Towill, “Dynamic Supply Chain Performance: Assessing the Impact of Information Systems”, Logistics Information Management, 6(4), 1993, pp. 15-24.
Forrester, J.W., Industrial Dynamics, 1961, Mass: MIT Press.
Forrester, J.W., Principles of Systems, 1968, Mass: MIT Press.
Forrester, J.W., Urban Dynamics 1969, Mass: MIT Press.
Forrester, J.W., World Dynamics 1971, Mass: MIT Press.
Forrester, N.B., The Life Cycle of Economic Development, 1973, Mass: MIT Press.
Fox, F.V., L.E. Pate, and L.R. Pondy, “Designing Organizations to be Responsive to their Clients”, in Kilmann, R.H. ed. The Management of Organization Design: Strategies and Implementation, 1976, pp. 53-72, New York: North-Holland.
Franco, D., “Policy Design in Oscillating Systems”, Proceedings of the 1990 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 1990, pp. 381-394.
French, W. L. and C.H. Bell, Jr., Organization Development: Behavior Science Interventions for Organization Improvement, 1978, Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.
Galbraith, J.R., E.E. Lawler III, and associates, Organizing for The Future: The New Logic for Managing Complex Organizations, 1993, New York: Jossey-Bass.
Galbraith, J.R., Organization Design, 1977, Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
Gavirneni, S., and S. Tayur, “Value of Information Sharing and Comparison with Delayed Differentiation”, in Tayur, S., R. ganeshan, and M. Magazine eds. Quantitative Models for Supply Chain Management, 1998, pp. 441-466, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Goldratt, E.M. and Cox, J., The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement. 1992, Great Barrington: North River Press.
Goldratt, E.M., Critical Chain. 1997, Great Barrington: North River Press.
Goldratt, E.M., It’s Not Luck! 1994, Great Barrington: North River Press.
Goldratt, E.M., The Haystack Syndrome: Sifting Information from the Data Ocean. 1990, Great Barrington: North River Press.
Goldratt, E.M., The Theory of Constraints Journal. 1987, Great Barrington: North River Press.
Goldratt, E.M., What Is This Thing Called Theory of Constraints and How Should It Be Implemented? 1990, Great Barrington: North River Press.
Graham, A.K., Principles of Relationship Between Structure and Behavior, Ph.D. Dissertation, 1977, M.I.T.
High Performance Systems Inc. ithink: The Visual Thinking Tool for the 90’s-Business Applications Guide, 1994.
Hutchins, E., Cognition in the Wild, 1996, Mass: MIT Press.
Ishikawa, K., Guide to Quality Control, 1984, Japan: Asian Productivity Organization.
Jayanthi, S. and K.K. Sinha, “Innovation Implementation in High Technology Manufacturing: Chaos-Theoretic Empirical Analysis”, Journal of Operation Management, 16, 1998, pp. 471-494.
Keloharju, R., Relativity Dynamics, 1981, Helsinki School of Economics, Helsink.
Kent J.L.Jr. and D.J. Flint, “Perspectives on the Evolution of Logistics Thought“, Journal of Business Logistics, 18(2), 1997.
Kivijavi, H. and M. Tuominen, “Solving Economic Optimal Control Problems with System Dynamics”, System Dynamics Review, 2, 1986, pp.135-150.
Klein, M., “Reengineering Methodologies and Tools: A Prescription for Enhancing Success”, Information System Management, Spring, 1994, pp.30-35.
Krafcik, J.F., “Triumph of the Lean Production System”, Sloan Management Review, Fall, 1988, pp. 41-52.
Lawrence, P.R. and J.W. Lorsch, Organization and Environment: Managing Differentiation and Integration, 1967, Boston: Harvard University.
Lee, H.L., and C. Billington, “Managing Supply Chain Inventory: Pitfalls and Opportunities”, Sloan management Review, Spring, 1992, pp. 69-73.
Lee, H.L., V. Padmanabhan, and S. Whang, “ The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains”, Sloan Management Review, Spring, 1997, pp. 93-102.
Lee, H.L., V. Padmanabhan, and S. Whang, “Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect”, Management Science, 43(4), 1997, pp. 546-558.
Lewin, A.Y., “Application of Complexity Theory to Organization Science”, Organization Science, 10(3), 1999, pp. 215.
Lucas, H.C. and J. Barudi, “The Role of Information Technology in Organizational Design”, Management Information Systems, 10, 1994, pp. 9-23.
Lyneis, J.M., Corporate Planning and Policy Design: A System Dynamics Approach, 1980, Mass: MIT Press.
McKelvey, B., “Quasi-Natural Organization Science”, Organization Science, 8(4), 1997, pp. 351-380.
McKelvey, B., Organizational Systematics, 1982, Berkley: University of California Press.
Meadows, D.H., “The Unavoidable A Priori”, in Randers, J. ed. Elements of the System Dynamics Method, 1980, pp. 23-60, Mass: MIT Press.
Metters, R., “Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains”, Journal of Operations Management, 15, 1997, pp.89-100.
Mintzberg, H., The Structuring of Organizations, 1979, Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.
Mohapatra, P.K.J., and S.K. Sharma, “Synthetic Design of Policy Decisions in System Dynamics Models: A Modal Control Theoretical Approach”, System Dynamics Review, 1, 1985, pp. 63-80.
Mohr, L.B., Explaining Organizational Behavior, 1982, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Morecroft, J.D. W., “System Dynamics and Microworlds for Policymakers”, European Journal of Operational Research, 35, 1988, pp. 301-320.
Nelson, R.R. and S.G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic change, 1982, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Open Systems Group, Systems Behaviour, 1981, London: Harper and Row.
Orlicky, J., Material Requirements Planning, 1975, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Orman, L.V., “A Model Management Approach to Business Process Reengineering”, Journal of Management Information Systems, 15(1), 1998, pp.187-212.
Orton, J.D. and K.E. Weick, “Loosely Coupled Systems: A Reconceptualization”, Academy of Management Review, 15(2), 1990, pp. 203-223.
Ouchi, W.G., “Markets, Bureaucracies and Clans”, 1980, Unpublished paper, Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles.
Paich, M. and J.D. Sterman, “Boom, Bust, and Failures to Learn in Experimental Market”, Management Science, 39, 1993, pp. 1439-1458.
Poole, M.S. and A.H. Van De Ven, “Using Paradox to Build Management and Organization Theories”, 14(4), 1989, pp. 562-578.
Porter, M.E., Competitive Advantage, 1985, New York: The Free Press.
Richardson, G.P., Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory, 1991, Phiadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Richmond, B. “System Thinking/System Dynamics: Let’s just get on with it”, System Dynamics Review, 10(3), 1994, pp. 135-158.
Sandelands, L. and R. Drazin, “On the Language of Organization Theory”, Organization Studies, 10(4), 1989, pp. 457-478.
Senge, P.M. and G.L. Roth, “From Theory to Practice: Research Territory, Processes and Structure at the MIT Center for Organizational Learning”, Journal of Organizational Change Management, Special Issue on Organizational Learning, 1995.
Senge, P.M., The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, 1990, New York: Doubleday Currency.
Simon, H.A., The Sciences of the Artificial, 1996, Mass: MIT Press.
Srikanth, M.L. and A.E. Podzunas, Synchronous Manufacturing: Principles for World-Class Excellence, 1990, CT, New Haven: The Spectrum Publishing Company.
Sterman, J.D. and D.L. Meadows, “Strategem-2: A Microcomputer Simulation Game of the Kondrative Cycle”, Simulation and Games, 16(2), 1985, pp.174-202.
Sterman, J.D., “Misperception of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making”, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 43, 1989, pp.301-335.
Sterman, J.D., “Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamics Decision Making Experiment”, Management Science, 35, 1989, pp.321-339.
Sterman, J.D., “Testing Behavioral Simulation Models by Direct Experiment”, Management Science, 33, 1987, pp. 1572-1592.
Sterman, J.D., “The Economic Long Wave: Theory and Evidence”, System Dynamics Review, 2, 1986, pp. 87-125.
Talavage, J.J., “Modal Analysis to Aid System Dynamics Simulation”, in A.A.Legasto et al. System Dynamics, TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, 14,1980, pp. 229-240.
Thompson, J.D., Organizations in Action, 1967, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Umble, M.M. and M.L. Srikanth, Synchronous Management: Profit-Based Manufacturing for the 21st Century-Implementation Issues and Case Studies, 1997, Guilford, Connecticut: The Spectrum Publishing Company.
Van de Vegte, J, Feedback Control Systems, 1995.
Van de Ven, A.H., “Central Problems in the Management of Innovation”, Management Science, 32(5), 1986, pp.590-606.
Van de Ven, A.H., “Suggestions for Studying Strategy Process: A Research Note”, Strategic Management Journal, 13, 1992, pp. 169-188.
Vansina, L.S. and T. Taillieu, “Business process reengineering or socio-technical system design in new clothes”, Research in Organizational Change and Development, 9, 1996, p.81-100.
Venkatraman, N., “IT-Enalbed Business Transformation: From Automation to Business Scope Redefinition”, Sloan Management Review, Winter, 1994, pp.73-87.
Volberda, H.W., “Toward the Flexible Form: How to Remain Vital in Hypercompetitive Environments”, Organization Science, 7(4), 1996, pp. 359-374.
Weick, K.E., The Social Psychology of Organizing, 1979, New York: Newbery Award Records, Inc.

中文文獻

汪維揚, 以系統動力學探討自組織團隊的認知機制, 2001, 國立中山大學資訊管理學系博士論文.
張道弘, PID控制理論與實務, 1995, 台北: 全華科技圖書.
陳加屏, 系統動力學模式結構層次高槓桿解決策函數產生法之研究, 1999, 國立中山大學企業管理學系博士論文.
陳耀宗, 使用SDM-PRN轉換法以輔助建構系統動力學模型及政策設計, 2000,國立中山大學資訊管理學系博士論文.
賴士葆, 生產�作業管理－理論與實務, 1994, 台北: 華泰書局.
嚴慕光, 同步器、伺服器、迴轉儀之基本原理, 1979, 台北: 徐氏基金會.