本研究主要探討在不同的景氣循環階段下，尤其是在景氣衰退階段，整體的顧客滿意度對消費支出變動之影響。本研究利用NBER(The National Bureau of Economic Research)所公布的景氣循環階段定義，將資料期間區分為景氣衰退期間和非景氣衰退期間；同時，本研究使用EGARCH模型來解決資料殘差異質性之現象，並捕捉消費支出在不同景氣循環階段下的不對稱反應。
實證結果發現，在景氣非衰退期間，前期顧客滿意度的增加能提高當期的消費支出成長率，但此關係並不存在於景氣衰退期間。不論是在景氣衰退或非衰退期間，前期消費者償債比率的增加都會降低當期的消費支出成長率，消費者償債比率的增加也會削弱顧客滿意度對消費支出成長率的影響效果；甚且，在景氣衰退期間，消費者償債比率對消費支出成長率以及顧客滿意度的影響關係更為顯著。

This study investigates the effect of National American Customer Satisfaction Index (NACSI) to aggregate consumer spending at different stage of business cycle. In this paper we use the data from The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to determine the recession term ,and we use EGARCH model to catch the asymmetric performance of aggregate consumer spending at different stage of business cycle.
In this study we found that when the economic is not in recession period, improvement in aggregate customer satisfaction have a positive impact on future changes in aggregate discretionary consumer spending. The growth in financial obligations ratio have a negative impact on future changes in aggregate discretionary consumer spending at whole business cycle. The growth in financial obligations ratio also attenuate the positive impact from customer satisfaction, and the effect become more strong in recession period.

第一章 緒論 .......................................................... 1
第一節 研究背景與動機...................................................................................... 1
第二章 文獻探討 .................................................. 5
第一節 顧客滿意度對消費者支出成長之影響................................................ 5
第二節 消費者的償債比例對消費者支出成長之的影響................................ 7
第三節 消費者在景氣衰退時的反應................................................................ 7
第四節 企業在景氣衰退時的反應.................................................................... 8
第五節 消費者對於景氣循環的不對稱反應.................................................... 9
第三章 研究方法 ................................................ 12
第一節 資料蒐集與說明.................................................................................... 12
第二節 敘述性統計分析.................................................................................. 14
第三節 EGARCH 模型配適 ............................................................................ 16
第四章 實證結果與分析 .................................. 20
第一節 單根檢定結果分析.............................................................................. 20
第二節 殘差異質性檢定分析.......................................................................... 21
第三節 EGARCH 模型實證結果 .................................................................... 22
第五章 結論 ...................................................... 24
參考文獻 .............................................................. 25
附錄: ..................................................................... 31
單根檢定.............................................................................................................. 31
殘差異質性檢定.................................................................................................. 33
EGARCH 模型配適 ............................................................................................ 34

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