摘 要
近年的研究中，開始有學者指出，單只有實體資本與人力資本並無法有效表達產出水準的異同，於是許多經濟學家嘗試加入更多解釋變數，試圖弭平實體資本與人力資本不能解釋經濟成長的原因。一般而言，經濟成長理論常用在跨國的成長比較分析，對於單一國家的實證研究甚少探討，其原因為無法直接有效估算國內各州郡的實體資本存量。為瞭解美國投入生產要素對產出的影響，本文藉由Garofalo and Yamarik (2002)所提供的方式估算美國各州實體資本存量，以驗證Solow成長模型的正確性，並以美國新經濟年代(1990-2000)為研究期間，將研究重心放在美國各州，即州與州間的產出分析，衡量產出時需考慮更周延的因素。
「人可以選擇生命的長度」，諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Grossman於1999年提出健康資本(health capital)的概念：每個人通過遺傳都獲得一筆初始健康存量，這種與生俱來的存量隨著年齡漸長而折舊，但也能由於健康投資而增加。所以人的健康也是一種重要人力資本要素，是其他人力資本存在與效能正常發揮的先決條件。因此，我們認為衡量美國各州產出除了探討實體資本與人力資本的影響力外，對於健康資本在美國經濟成長的貢獻更是有必要加以研究。
分析三個模型背後的經濟意涵，可以總結以下結論：
第(一)、實體資本與人力資本對美國各州在1990年至2000年的經濟產出都具有正面的助益效果，但對產出卻呈現不同的影響程度。實體資本估計係數的降低，說明其影響力愈來愈小；反觀人力資本的估計係數增加，知其對產出的影響力變大。
第(二)、對美國經濟成長的解釋原因，在加入健康資本後會提高其解釋能力。這是因為每個人透過健康投資而增加其生命長度，當生命週期提升時，將使人們的退休年齡往後延長而增加生產力，進而推升經濟的成長。
第(三)、模型中的 項代表各州的隨機變數，除了反應科技存量外，尚包括每一州郡不同的資源稟賦、區域位置、制度等特有限制因素，它會顯現出各州的不同特性，因此，當模型考慮更多的解釋變數(例如政治變數：每一州的執政黨型態)時，相信對經濟成長的解釋原因，會更趨於明確。
第(四)、文中 偏低的情形，可能是模型以長期經濟產出為研究對象，缺少考量短期景氣循環的問題，因此在做生產函數估計時，可能會碰到Romer (1987)所提到的估計困難，即當經濟產出成長受到經濟變數的短期景氣循環效果所支配時，將使得估計結果變得無效率性。
綜合上述結論，可以瞭解1990年至2000年的美國之所以能有長期的經濟成長進而在全世界建立強大的經濟地位，除了感謝實體資本累積及人力資本累積的貢獻外，對於健康資本累積所帶來的影響力，亦應給予高度的重視。本文認為國家對於健康投資愈加以重視，將會使該國能夠擁有愈高的經濟成長率與國際競爭力，因此，世界各國可以藉助美國經驗來追求經濟成長，增進生活品質。

Abstract
In recent years, many economists point out that physical capital stock and human capital stock cannot identify the difference of income effectively. Therefore, they attempt to add more interpreted variables, trying to illustrate economic growth that physical capital and human capital cannot explain. In general, economic growth theory has been applied to cross-country studies, and empirical researches of single country are limited. The main reason is that one cannot know how to measure the physical capital stock between states of a country efficiently. According to the method of Garofalo and Yamarik (2002), one can estimate the physical capital stocks of each state of the United States and justify the validity of Solow growth model. This paper specifically focuses on the so called new economy era (1990-2000). Our primary goal is to expand the existing models into more comprehensive one by including more explanatory variables.
In 1999, The Nobelist -Grossman- released the concept of health capital “One can choose the length of life”. Each will be endowed initial value of health stock which depreciates through time and appreciates through the self-investment, exercising, for example. Health capital is also a kind of element of human capital; it will help human capital work normally. For this reason, we consider to measure U.S. output not only consider the effects of accumulation of physical capital and human capital, but also contains contributions of health capital.
To analyze economic implications in three models from this study, there are several remarks can be drown：
Firstly, physical capital and human capital provide significantly positive effect for economic growth rates of U.S. states from 1990 to 2000. The magnitude of estimated coefficient of physical capital has been decreasing, which denotes two phenomenons. In the one hand, physical capitals positively contribute the US economic growth. On the other hand, its influence to economic growth has marginally decreased over time. In contrast to physical capitals, human capital has shown constantly increasing influence to the US economic growth.
Secondly, after adding the variable of health capital, the model can account the large scale of variation of the U.S. economic growth. The reason is that agents in the economy add their own length of life in the model and, then defer retirement and extend their productivities to economic growth.
Thirdly, although term of is a random variable of cross states in the model; despite of technology stock, it comprises different endowment of resource, geographical location and institution etc. Therefore, it displays individual characteristics of every state. Hence, economic growth will reveal significant and positive beneficial result when we can think about more component of (for instant, adding political party variables) to improve and develop it.
Lastly, we have low adjusted in this paper, and maybe because we focus on long-run output, and do not look upon puzzle of short-run business cycle. Romer (1987) denotes that short-run business cycle of economic variables dominates change of some variables for contributing long-run economic growth that will make estimation to convert nefficiently.
Synthesizing the above mentioned consequences, one can find that U.S. impressed economic performance from 1990 to 2000. Not only contribute physical capital and human capital to the economy, health capital is another key element to maintain such sustained economic growth. Consequently, we suggest that if a nation pays more attention to health capital, which will result in economic growth and increase competitiveness for the nation. The results of this paper using the US as a sample may can serve as a reference to other countries using as a example to improve economic growth in the future.

目 錄
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………1
第二章 文獻回顧………………………………………………5
第一節 經濟成長理論文獻回顧……………………………5
第二節 經濟成長實證文獻回顧……………………………10
第三章 建立模型與研究方法…………………………………15
第一節 經濟成長模型推導…………………………………15
第二節 實證研究方法說明…………………………………27
第四章 實證分析結果…………………………………………35
第一節 資料來源與處理……………………………………35
第二節 實證結果之分析……………………………………37
第五章 結論……………………………………………………48
參考文獻………………………………………………………50

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