中文摘要
延遲策略提供了廠商達成效率管理供應鏈的機會，而根據延遲的進行方式可概分為將產品差異點延後的製造延遲(manufacturing postponement)以及將物流配送作業延後到確認訂單才進行的物流延遲(logistics postponement)。對於廠商而言，製造延遲牽涉層面的廣泛和複雜度，常顯得本多利少。物流延遲的進行，相較於製造延遲，則顯得簡單許多，廠商僅是透過中央倉儲或是配銷中心在作存貨成本和顧客服務水準之間的調節。因此，物流延遲不失為廠商調配各地市場供需和存、缺貨成本控制的一個效率操作方式。

物流延遲策略的進行，可以幫助廠商更精準的掌握市場需求波動與存、缺貨成本。實質選擇權與延遲的相關性也在此顯現。廠商待顧客訂單確定後，才由中央倉儲出發進行最後的配置，就如同實質選擇權等待資訊充分後，再作出對廠商最有利的決策。而執行後的結果，亦即因進行物流延遲而降低的存、缺貨成本就是實質選擇權中等待所帶來的效益。
本文中，管理者面對的不確定情形主要來自於市場需求的波動，而廠商的管理彈性表現在面對不同的市場需求、存貨、缺貨成本時，有權利且有能力，為公司是否建置中央倉儲而進行物流延遲作出最佳決定，中央倉儲的建置成本相當於廠商要購買進行物流延遲的權利，而這個買權所帶來的價值將體現在物流延遲所帶來的效益上，廠商能夠藉著實質選擇權來評估在何情形下投資，才能追求最大成本節省效益。延遲策略和實質選擇權的意涵相同處，在於兩者的價值都是藉由延遲/等待所帶來的彈性來呈現的，本研究因此希望以實質選擇權進行的方式來 (1)評估物流延遲策略的效益；(2)若廠商可以透過產量調節壓低存貨和缺貨成本，是否還有進行物流延遲的必要?以作為本研究主要之貢獻。

ABSTRACT
Postponement strategies offer opportunities for firms to achieve effective supply chain management. Postponement strategies could be classified into manufacturing postponement which delays the product differentiation and logistics postponement which delays the distributing process to the confirmed customer orders. In practice, the way to implement manufacturing postponement is more complicated than logistics postponement’s. By employing the logistics postponement strategy, all the firms have to consider is the distribution of finalized products from a centralized inventory to final retailers. Comparing with integrating all the manufacturing activities, logistics postponement strategy could be an effective one for firms to handle the demand uncertainty over the regional markets.
By employing the logistics postponement strategy, firms could decrease the cost of inventory and backorder through delaying products distribution to the confirmed customer orders. The connection between real options and postponement is also showed on this point. By employing the real options, decisions could be made when the firms wait and get more information about the market. The value the firms wait to get is also the benefits that logistics postponement strategy could reach by logistics postponement. Thus, the flexibility to decrease the inventory and backorder cost is considered as the management flexibility that real options could evaluate.
On the other way, it’s not always free for firms to get such a flexible management ability. The capital that firms have to invest for any change of the supply chain becoming the flexible one could be equal to buying the exercise right in real options. We therefore could construct a model to evaluate the value of logistics postponement strategy via real options and help the firms to judge what would be the proper occasions for logistics postponement to be implemented.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 論文架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 延遲策略 6
2.1.1 延遲理論的發展與分類 6
2.1.2 延遲策略相關成本效益與評估模型 11
2.2 實質選擇權之應用 29
2.2.1 實質選擇權在物流領域的運用...31
2.2.2 實質選擇權在物流延遲策略規劃上的意義 32
第三章 實質選擇權評估下的物流延遲效益模型 34
3.1 模型基本假設與限制 34
3.2 模型分析 38
3.2.1 假設A、B市場需求變異相近，即σA =σB =σ 38
3.2.2 假設A、B市場需求變異不同，即σA σB 41
3.3 數值分析 45
3.3.1 市場A與市場B的需求變異(σA、σB)對物流延遲效益的影響45
3.3.2 缺貨成本對物流延遲效益的影響 47
3.4 小結 49
第四章 以產量調節降低缺貨風險之物流延遲效益評估模型 51
4.1 模型分析 51
4.1.1 假設A、B市場需求變異相近，即σA =σB =σ 51
4.1.2 假設A、B市場需求變異不同，即σA σB 60
4.2 數值分析 73
4.2.1 市場A與市場B的需求變異(σA、σB)對物流延遲效益的影響73
4.2.2 缺貨成本對物流延遲效益的影響 78
4.3 小結 82
第五章 結論與建議 85
5.1 結論 85
5.2 建議 88
參考文獻 89

參考文獻
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