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博碩士論文 etd-0626106-212825 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0626106-212825
論文名稱
Title
距離與省界對中國工資差距的影響
The Distance and Borders on the Influence of Wage Differential in China
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
90
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2006-06-15
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2006-06-26
關鍵字
Keywords
工資差異、人口遷移、中國大陸地區、追蹤資料、單一價格法則
China area, migration, law of one price, panel data, wage differential
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5630 次,被下載 2216
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5630 times, has been downloaded 2216 times.
中文摘要
由於中國大陸地區缺乏遷移人口的統計紀錄,故我們以Johnson(2003)的估計方法,比較1994 - 2003年人口統計紀錄,以對中國大陸地區跨省的遷移人口做估算。在人口數量的增加只導因於自然增加率─出生率減死亡率的前提下,與1995 - 2004年歷年各省的實際人口數量做比較,求出遷移人口的估計量,但不幸的,各省因遷移而增加的人口估計量,大於各省因遷移而減少人口的估計量,造成如此差距的主要可能原因,為遷入人口的低估,與各省對現役軍人人口紀錄的遺漏。然而這樣的差距小於1995 - 2004年總人口數的3%,其實差異並不大,故本文以此數據對中國大陸地區的工資差異做一探討。
接著,因工資為價格的一種,故本文採用Engel and Rogers (1996)的方法,以單一價格法則,檢測中國大陸地區各地職工工資的差異。發現兩省遷移人口的高度差距、遠距離與是否為沿海省份,對職工工資的差異的現象有增加的作用,亦發現距離的平方與省界,對工資差距的影響為負。其中,距離與工資差異為正向關係,而距離平方與工資差異為反向相關,表示工資差異與距離間的關係為凹性相關。
最後,觀測1994 - 2003年中國大陸地區工資變異與人口遷移變異的情形,發現工資差異的變異現象有擴大的趨勢,而人口遷移的變異則無顯著的上升或下降趨勢。工資差異的成長率近年雖多為正,但這樣的幅度越來越低,而平均各省遷移人口的成長率則趨近於零,無顯著的增加或減少。
Abstract
Due to there is no record of migration in China, we estimate migration by Johnson’s (2003) way. Estimates of migration among the provinces of China area were made by comparison of the provincial population from the 1994 to the 2003 censuses. The estimates were made by comparing every year between 1995 and 2004 population of each province with what it would have been if population had increased solely due to national growth-the excess of births over deaths. Unfortunately, the estimate of the increase in provincial populations due to migration was much greater than the estimate of the loss of population by migration. Possible reasons for the difference in the estimates due primarily to the underestimation of immigrants. Because this difference amounts to less than 3% of the 1995-2004 population of China, the data is still useful to us.
Because wage is a kind of price, we adopt the method by Engel and Rogers (1996), and use the law of one price to examine the wage differential in China area. We find that high migration gap, long distance and the presence of coast all lead to an increase in wage differential in China area. We also find that distance and border reduce differential among provinces. Note that the distance has a positive effect on wage differential, and the square of distance has a negative effect. This means the distance relationship were concave.
Finally, we examine the tendency in the standard deviation of wage differential and migration gap among the provinces of China during the period 1994-2003. The standard deviation of wage differential widened, and the standard of migration gap did not display strong increasing or decreasing. Although the growth rate of wage differential was positive, it reduced in recent years. The average growth rate of migration gap was close to zero, there is not significant tendency.
目次 Table of Contents
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………1
第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………6
第一節 工資差異理論的文獻回顧…………………………6
一、工資差異理論與實證文獻回顧 …………………6
二、單一價格法則的失敗與工資差異 ………………7
第二節 人口遷移的文獻回顧………………………………8
一、人口遷移理論文獻回顧 …………………………8
二、人口遷移實證文獻回顧 …………………………12
第三節 戶籍制度的演變背景文獻回顧……………………14
第三章 建立模型與研究方法……………………………………18
第一節 整體迴歸模型推導…………………………………18
ㄧ、遷移人口的估算 …………………………………19
二、工資在各省間的差距 ……………………………20
三、距離與省界對工資差異的影響 …………………22
四、整體迴歸式 ………………………………………23
第二節 實證研究方法說明…………………………………26
一、板塊資料(panel data)的基本模型 ……………27
二、一次差分模型(First difference, FD) ………28
三、固定效果模型(Fixed effects, FE)……………29
四、隨機效果模型(Random effects, RE) …………30
五、模型檢定 …………………………………………32
六、固定效果與隨機效果模型的選取 ………………33
七、模型的異質變異與自我相關 ……………………34
第四章 實證結果分析……………………………………………37
第一節 資料來源與處理……………………………………37
一、 資料來源…………………………………………37
二、 資料處理…………………………………………38
第二節 實證結果分析………………………………………42
一、遷移人口估計量的比較探討 ……………………42
二、遷移人口對工資差距的影響 ……………………51
第五章 結論………………………………………………………57
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………60
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