隨著布列敦森林體系的瓦解，跨國景氣循環的研究漸為經濟學家重視。東亞國家在1997年金融危機發生以及1999年歐元誕生以後，亞洲是否適合成立共同貨幣區域成為熱門的話題，而各國的景氣循環是否同步是成立共同貨幣區域的先決條件，其中貿易是國家之間重要的連結，文獻也普遍認為貿易與景氣循環的同步性呈現高度相關連。但根據過去理論文獻，區域內貿易產生的經濟整合，是否破壞景氣循環同步化的程度，有兩種說法，一為國家之間為產業間貿易主導，會使得兩國產生專業分工的現象，如此會使兩國的經濟結構差距變大，導致景氣循環同步性的程度降低。二為國家之間若為產業內貿易主導，會使得兩國之間經濟趨於同質，因而促進景氣循環同步性的程度上升。
隨著東亞區域內貿易以及產業內貿易逐年上升的趨勢，本文利用東亞國家作為研究對象，利用工具變數以及兩階段估計解決貿易內生性的問題，估計雙邊貿易密切程度與雙邊產業內貿易程度對跨國景氣循環同步性的影響，而估計結果顯示，東亞的產業內貿易以及雙邊貿易密切程度皆對跨國景氣循環的波動有著顯著正向的影響，因此東亞國家之間的貿易以及產業內貿易的提升可以促進國家間景氣循環同步化的程度。尤其產業內貿易對於景氣循環同步性的影響力最為顯著，本文的結果也暗示著東亞若要成立共同貨幣區域，跨國間產業內貿易的提升會是一個重要的途徑。

After East Asian financial crisis in 1997 and European monetary unification in 1999, if it is suitable of establishing the Asian common monetary area becomes the hot topic. The precondition of establishing the monetary policy cooperation depends on the synchronization of various countries’ business cycle co-movement. And the trade is the connector among the countries. Trade linkages seemed to have an influence on business cycle co-movement. Countries with close international trade link are more likely to be members of an optimal currency area. According to the theoretical literature, the impact of trade integration on business cycle correlation may go either way. On the one hand, if trade occurs mainly by Heckscher-Ollin or is of the Ricardian type, higher specialization would induce the industrial structures of the trading countries to diverge, resulting in less synchronized movements of business cycle. In contrast, if trade occurs mainly through intra-industry trade, specialization does not necessarily lead to less synchronized. In summary, the total effect of trade intensity on cycle correlation is theoretically ambiguous and poses a question that could only be solved empirically.
The volume of trade in East Asia has increased continuously. This paper extends the study of Frankel and Rose (1998) to analyze the impact of trade integration on business cycle correlation and intra-industry trade by using SITC data and other macroeconomic factors. Moreover, using two-stage estimation and instruments to take into account the fact that trade intensity itself may be endogenous. Then, we use panel data to estimate our equation. By gathering annual information of 10 East Asian countries from 1987 to 2005, we found that higher trade integration leads higher business cycle synchronization. To sum up, intra-industry trade is the process of establishing East Asian common monetary area.

第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………...1
第一節 研究背景與動機…………………………………………………...1
第二節 研究方向與目的…………………………………………………...2
第二章 文獻回顧………………………………………………………………...5
第一節 景氣循環理論文獻………………...………………………………5
第二節 實證文獻……….…………………...……………………………...6
第三章 模型設定與實證研究方法…………………………………………….13
第一節 簡單迴歸模型的建立…………………………………………….13
第二節 變數之衡量……………………………………………………….15
第三節 實證模型與計量方法…………………………………………….19
第四章 實證結果分析………………………………………………………….29
第一節 資料來源與研究變數之選用…………………………………….29
第二節 實證結果………………………………………………………….31
第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………….39
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………...42
附錄………………………………………………………………………………...46

國內文獻
張淑華 (1998),「東亞開發中國家之景氣循環分析」, 行政院國家科學委員會硏究報告。
彭德明 (2005), 「東亞共同貨幣區可行性初探-兼論東亞地區的經濟與金融合作」, 中央銀行季刊第二十七卷第四期。
高國鋒 (2005), 「七大工業國家景氣循環的依存關係」, 碩士論文, 國立中山大學中山學術研究所。
周怡秀 (2006), 「七大工業國家景氣循環與傳導機制」, 碩士論文, 國立中山大學經濟學研究所。

國外文獻
Rose, Andrew K and Engel, Charles. (2002), “Currency Unions and International Integration.” Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,34(4).
Athukorala, Prema-chandra and Yamashita, Nobuaki. (2005), “Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context.” (RSPAS working paper), Australian National University.
Backus, D.K. and Kehoe, P.J.,(1992), “International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles.” American Economic Review 82, 864-888.
Backus,David K.;Kehoe Patrickand Kydland. (1992), “International Borrowing and World Business Cycles.” Journal of Political Economy,100(4), 745-75.
Bayoumi, Tamim and Barry Eichengreen. (1993a), “Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification,” in (F. Giavazzi and F. Torres, eds.), The Transition to Economic and Monetary Union in Europe (New York: Cambridge University Press).
Bayoumi, Tamim and Barry Eichengreen. (1993b), “Is there a Conflict between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification.“ Greek Economic Review, 15(1), 131-154.
Baxter, Marianne and King, Robert G, (1995), “Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series.” NBER Working Paper Series,No.5022.
Canova, Fabio and Marrinan, Jane. (1998), “Sources of Propagation of International Output Cycle:common Shocks or Transmission.” Journal of international Economics 46,133-166.
Canova, Fabio and Harris, Dellas. (1993), “Trade Interdependence and the International Business Cycle.” Journal of International Economic, 34(1/2), 23-47.
Choe, Jong-II. (2001), “An Impact of Economic Integration through Trade: on Business Cycles for 10 East Asian Countries.” Journal of Asian Economics, 12, 569-586.
Crosby, Mark. (2003), “Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific.” Economics Letters, 80, 35-44.
Fidrmuc, Jarko. (2004), “The Endogeneity of The Optimum Currency Area Criteria Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement.” Ontemporary Economic Policy , 22(1).
Frankel, A. Jeffrey and Andrew K. Rose. (1998). “The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency criteria.” The Economic Journal, 108, 1009-1025.
Frankel, A. Jeffrey and Andrew K. Rose. (2002), “An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2), 1009-1025.
Gerlach, (1988), “World business cycles under fixed and flexible exchange rates.” Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 20, 621–632
Gruben, William C. Koo, Jahyeong and Mills, Eric. (2002), “How Much Does International Trade Affect Business Cycle Synchronization.” Working Paper 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Grubel, Herbert G. and Lloyd, Peter J.(1971), "A Empirical Measurement of Intra- Indutry Trade", Economic Record, 47, 494-517.
Hodrick, Robert J and Prescott, Edward C. (1997), “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking, 29(1).
Imbs, Jean M. (2004), “Trade, Finance, and Specialization.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, 723-734.
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, Bent E. Sorensen, and Oved Yosha. (2003), “Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence” American Economic Review, 91(3).
Krugman, Paul. (1993), “Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU.” The Transition to Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, edited by F. Torres and F. Giavazzi. New York: Cambridge University Press, 241-261.
Kumakura, Masanaga. (2006), “Trade and Business Cycle Co-movements in Asia-Pacific.” Journal of Asian Economics, 17, 622-645.
Lee, Jong-Wha, Park, Yung Chul and Shin, Kwanho. (2002), “A Currency Union in East Asia.“ Seoul, South Korea: Korea University .
Lucas E. Robert, Jr. (1976), “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique.” In Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19-46.
Lucas E. Robert, Jr. (1977), “Understanding business cycles. ” Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 7-29.
Lucas, E. Robert, Jr. (1980), “Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory.” Journal of Monetary, Credit and Banking, 12(4), 696-715.
Long, B. John and Plosser, I. Charles. (1983), “Real Business Cycles.”, Journal of Political Economy, 91(1), pp. 39-69.
Mundell, Robert A. (1961), “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas.” American Economic Review, 51, 657-665.
Mundell, Robert A. (1968), International Economics, The Macmillan Company, New
York,239∼321.
Nasution, Anwar. (2005), “Regional Financial Arrangements in East Asia.” Journal of Asian Economics, 17,109-126.
Ng, Francia and Yeats, Alexander, (2003). “Major Trade Trends in East Asia.” World Bank policy research working paper no.3084.
Otto, Glenn, Graham Voss and Luke Willard. (2001), “Understanding OECD Output Correlation” manuscript.
Rose, Andrew K. (2000), ”One Money, One Market: The Effect of Common Currencies on Trade” Economic Policy, 15, 9-45.
Shin, Kwanho and Wang, Yunjong. (2003), “Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia.” Working Paper 03-01, Korean Institute for International Economic Policy.
Shin, Kwanho and Wang, Yunjong. (2004), “Trade Integration and Business Cycle Co-movements : the Case of Korea with Other Asian Countries.” Japan and the World Economy, 16 (2), 213-230.
Shin, Kwanho and Wang, Yunjong. (2005), “The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe.” Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 141 (1), 104-23.

Stockman, C. Alan and Linda L. Tesar. (1995), “Tastes and Technology in Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle：Explaining International Co-movements.” American Economic Review, 85(1), 168-185.