景氣循環一直是經濟學者研究的重要議題，因為產出、就業等總體變數的波動深深的影響國民的生活和社會的穩定，所以各國政府莫不致力於降低景氣循環的波動程度。要設法降低景氣循環的波動，當然得先瞭解景氣循環的成因。由於國際之間的交流日益頻繁，一國的產出波動不只受國內經濟變數的影響，也受國外的經濟變數影響，本文的目的即在於分析跨國之間景氣循環波動的傳導機制對於跨國之間景氣循環同步化的影響。
本文最主要的目的在於探討國際之間垂直分工對於工業國家跨國景氣循環同步性的影響，其效果可分為兩種；其一為間接效果，因為垂直分工發生於工業國家與開發中國家，藉著垂直分工的發展而降低工業國家之間貿易的緊密程度，進而間接的降低工業國家之間的景氣同步性。其次為直接效果，垂直分工改變了工業國家的經濟結構，使其專注於產品開發與行銷工作，此類型的公司資本密集程度低，進而使工業國家受到共同衝擊的影響降低，進而使工業國家之間的景氣循環同步性下降。
我們以六大工業國家（美、日、英、法、德、加）進行實證，實證的結果與我們的推論的結果一致，垂直分工透過對於工業國家之間貿易緊密程度的降低而使其跨國景氣循環同步性下降，垂直分工與工業國家之間景氣循環同步性呈現負向關係。

Business cycle is an important issue for economist. Because the fluctuations of product and employment have deep influences on people’s life and social stability, almost every government tries to reduce the volatility of national business cycles. If we want to make it, we must realize it first. Since countries communicate with each other more frequently in recent decades, the volatility of national product cycles is not only influenced by domestic economic variables but also foreign ones. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of transmission mechanism on international business cycles synchronization (BCCs).
The major purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of international vertical specialization on BCCs among industrial countries. There are two kinds of effect. One is indirect effect. Vertical specialization happens between industrial countries and developing countries, so it can reduce bilateral trade intensity among industrial countries. Through this way, BCCs among industrial countries will reduce. The other one is direct effect. Vertical specialization changes the economic structure of industrial countries. Industrial countries can focus on product development and market research. This kind of economic structure is less capital intensive, which lessens the effect of common shocks to industrial country’s business cycles. BCCs among industrial countries will reduce.
We measured the effect using the data from G6 (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, UK and US). The result is consistent with our inferance. Vertical specialization can reduce BCCs by reducing bilateral trade intensive among industrial countries. There is a negative relation between Vertical specialization and BCCs among industrial countries.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 1
第二節 研究方法與目的 2
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 封閉體系下的景氣循環 5
第二節 國際景氣循環 6
第三章 實證模型 12
第一節 國際景氣循環的模型建構 12
第二節 變數的衡量方式 14
第三節 計量方法 21
第四章 實證結果 30
第一節 資料來源及研究變數的選取 30
第二節 實證結果與其分析 31
第五章 結論 37
參考文獻 40

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