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博碩士論文 etd-0627101-151951 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0627101-151951
論文名稱
Title
乏晰地域性電力負載預測模式建立
A Fuzzy Modeling Method for Small Area Load Forecast
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
105
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2001-06-01
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2001-06-27
關鍵字
Keywords
乏晰模式、負載預測
Fuzzy Modeling, Load Forecast
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5707 次,被下載 2096
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5707 times, has been downloaded 2096 times.
中文摘要
在一個具競爭性的電力零售市場中,地域性電力負載預測具有兩大應用功能,其一,電力供應事業必須進行詳細的市場調查以發掘不同用電型態商機並規劃其營運策略。在許多市場研究要素中,往往牽涉很強的地區因素,而在這方面地域性電力負載預測後的資料往往能提供有利的訊息。其次對輸配電的運轉業者之應用上,和以往一樣他們必須要能預測未來的電力運用以利輸配電系統擴展的評估及規劃。本論文整合一地理資訊系統(GIS)和一乏晰模式為基礎之地域性負載預測模式,並將此研究應用於台灣高雄市區。

由於乏晰模式在決定乏晰規則和歸屬函數時,必須使用試誤法求出的缺點。因此,本文利用一套群落估算法(cluster estimation)鑑別乏晰模式,並用於預測電力系統的小時負載。群落估算法可以算出真實負載資料的群落中心,而群落中心的數目可視為乏晰模式的規則總數,且其位置為乏晰模式前件部各輸入變數之歸屬函數的位置。在結論部參數的估計過程中,使用遞回最小平方估算法(recursive least-squares estimation)求反矩陣的解避開反矩陣的運算,所以本方法計算效率較高。
Abstract
In a more competitive environment, load forecast serves two different applications. First, load forecast results can be used by the retailers of power to study their opportunities and plan their business strategies. Second, accurate projections of load are useful for T&D operators in performing system operation and expansion studies. Several key elements in their market and system planning studies have strong location factors that the spatial load forecast can address. In this dissertation, a package that integrates a Geographic Information System (GIS) used for automatic mapping and facility management (AM/FM) and a spatial load forecast module is presented. The interface functions and the procedure of the fuzzy logic based spatial load forecast module are described. Simulation studies are performed on a metropolitan area of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

The conventional fuzzy modeling has a drawback in that the fuzzy rules or the fuzzy membership functions are determined by trial and error. In this dissertation an automatic model identification procedure is proposed to construct the fuzzy model for short-term load forecast. In this method an analysis of variance is used to identify the influential variables on the system load. To setup the fuzzy rules, a cluster estimation method is adopted to determine the number of rules and the membership functions of variables involved in the premises of the rules. A recursive least square method is then used to determine the coefficients in the conclusion parts of the rules. None of these steps involves nonlinear optimization and all steps have well-bounded computation time.
目次 Table of Contents
摘要 …….…………………………..……………………………..………….I
Abstract ……..………………………………………..……………..……….II
目錄 …………….…………..………………………………………..………IV
圖目錄 …………….…………….………….………………………....…….VI
表目錄 ……………….……..……………………………………….………IX
第一章 緒論 …….………………………………………..…..………………1
1.1 研究背景與動機 …….………….………………..…………………1
1.2 研究目的 ………………….…………..….…………………………8
1.3 本論文貢獻 ……………………..……..………..….….……………9
1.4 本論文組織架構 ………….…..………….………………….….…10
第二章 一群落估算法用於乏晰負載預測的模式鑑別 ….…...…...…….11
2.1 簡介 ………..….……………………….…..…..………..……….....11
2.2 變異數分析 ……..…………………….……..………….…………12
2.3 群落估算法 ……..…………………………...……………..………13
2.4 乏晰模式鑑別 …….…………………….….…..….……….………18
2.5 乏晰模式 ………………….………………..……………..……….20
第三章 地域性電力負載預測之乏晰模式 …………..………………….25
3.1 簡介 …………………………..……………………………………25
3.2 地域性負載預測 ………………….……………….………………26
3.2.1 被預測區之空間劃分 …………..……………..…..….……28
3.2.2 成長計分考慮的因素 …………...……………………………29
3.2.3 土地使用變化之自動學習模式 ……………………………31
3.2.4 輸入/輸出變數 …………….………………..………………32
3.2.5 地域性負載預測 …………....………………………………33
3.2.6 基準年資料收集和計算 …….….….…………………….…34
3.2.7 地理資訊系統與人機界面 .…….………….…….…………36
第四章 測試結果 …………………………...………………………………39
4.1 長期負載預測之測試結果 ………..…..………….………………39
4.1.1 資料分析 ….…………..………………………………….…39
4.1.2 預測模式與結果分析 …….…..….…………………………40
4.1.3 討論 ………………..……….….……………………………42
4.2 短期負載預測之測試結果 …………..……….……..……………44
4.2.1 台電公司夏季負載資料之測試結果與討論 …….….….…44
4.2.2 台電公司整年負載資料之測試結果與討論 …....………49
4.3 地域性負載預測之測試結果 ….……..…..…….…………..……56
第五章 結論及未來研究方向 ……………..………………………………81
參考文獻 …………………………….…..….………………………………83
附錄 A 一般乏晰邏輯的運算方式 …..….….………..……………………89
附錄 B ARIMA MODEL之建立 ……..…...……….…….…………………99
附錄 C 轉換函數模式之建立 ……....….….……..………………………102
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