用戶之負載特性為電力系統營運最基本資訊，透過對用戶負載特性瞭解，可提高負載預測準確度，有效支援電源開發及系統規劃。本論文以負載特性調查為基礎，應用統計學分層隨機抽樣法，於現場裝置智慧型電表量測每十五分鐘一筆之需量用電，統計加總鳳山區處所有各類型用戶日負載模型，配合各類型用戶售電資料，推導區處日負載組成及模型，分析各類型用戶對系統尖峰之貢獻度。
本論文根據鳳山區處配電系統之負載組成與蒐集各變電所歷年尖峰負載值，將鳳山區處劃分為六個供電區，考慮各區負載特性，利用時間序列負載預測模式，推估未來二十年之尖峰負載，再利用主變壓器強迫故障率（FOR），推估個別供電區年尖峰負載值對應之缺電機率（LOLE），並提出滿足供電可靠度之主變壓器容量擴充計劃，此外本文亦考慮相鄰供電區之容量轉供，配合配電系統之互聯容量限制，重新擬定變電所容量規劃，本論文突破傳統變電所規劃模式，在滿足配電系統可靠度之條件下，推導最佳主變壓器擴充時程，提升主變壓器容量擴充之投資成本效益。

Customer load characteristics provides very critical information for power system operation. The accuracy of load forecasting and the effective cases of system generation and network planning can be enhanced by the investigation of customer load characteristics. In this thesis, the intelligent meters have been used to collect the power consumption within each 15 minutes of study customers, which have been selected by stratified sampling method. The typical load patterns of each customer class have been derived. The load composition and the power system load profile of Fengshan District in Taipower have been solved by the typical load patterns and the power consumption of each custom class.
To investigate the distribution system reliability, the service territory of Fengshan district is divided into six service areas. The forecasting of yearly peak loadings for each area over the future 20 years is performed by the time series method based on the historical load data and load characteristics. By using the forced outage rate （FOR） of main transformers in the substations, the loss of load expectation（LOLE） which corresponds to yearly peak loading of each service area is solved. By this way, the capacity expansion planning of main transformers to meet the service reliability can therefore be derived. To further enhance the distribution system planning, the capacity transfer capability of main transformers and the tie line flow capacity between different areas are considered too. It is found that the expansion planning of main transformers by the proposed methodology can provide better cost effectiveness of transformer investment to satisfy the service reliability as well as the system peak loading.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究步驟 3
1.3 論文章節概要 5
第二章 負載特性調查及負載組成 6
2.1 前言 6
2.2 負載特性調查 6
2.2.1 分層隨機抽樣 7
2.2.2 負載模式推導 11
2.2.3 日負載組成推估 13
2.3 鳳山區處日負載組成分析 14
2.3.1 表燈非營業負載特性比較分析 19
2.3.2表燈營業負載特性比較分析 21
2.3.3 高壓電力負載特性比較分析 23
2.3.4 特高壓電力負載特性比較分析 25
2.3.5 執行負載管理對尖峰負載特性比較分析 27
2.4 結論 30
第三章 變電所負載成長分析 31
3.1 轄區簡介 31
3.2 預測理論 33
3.3 區域負載預測分析 34
3.3.1 鳳山供電區負載預測 35
3.3.2 小港供電區負載預測 38
3.3.3 寮園供電區負載預測 40
3.3.4 仁武供電區負載預測 42
3.3.5 大樹供電區負載預測 44
3.4 各供電區負載成長比較 47
3.5 結論 48
第四章 考慮可靠度之變電所容量規劃 49
4.1 前言 49
4.2 可靠度理論 49
4.2.1 可靠度理論 49
4.2.2 單一變壓器組可靠度模式 50
4.3 區域性供電可靠度分析 53
4.3.1 鳳山供電區可靠度分析 54
4.3.2 小港供電區可靠度分析 60
4.3.3 寮園供電區可靠度分析 64
4.3.4 仁武供電區可靠度分析 67
4.3.5 大樹供電區可靠度分析 70
4.4 區域性互聯供電可靠度分析 73
4.5 結論 78
第五章 結論與未來研究方向 79
5.1 結論 79
5.2 未來研究方向 80
參考文獻 81

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