本文中我們建立一個具有黃金市場的開放經濟體系模型，以談論匯率動態調整的經典文獻Dornbusch(1976)為模型建構基礎，並參考Barsky and Summers (1988)對黃金市場之設定，試圖將既有文獻的部分均衡分析推廣至一般均衡分析。於本文模型中，我們嘗試放寬了傳統文獻對資產間完全替代關係的假設，如：理性預期的民眾可以同時持有債券及黃金兩項不完全替代的資產，並進一步搭配政策宣告效果的議題，嘗試使用資產替代程度大小的觀點去探討金價與匯價長、短期的連動關係，以及驗證結果是否與實證現象-美國貨幣價值與黃金價格呈現負向關係相符。
我們發現，當兩資產替代程度相對較大時，若政策宣告與執行間的時差夠大，體系就有可能出現錯向調整的現象；反之，替代程度較小時，金價與匯價的動態調整路徑只會呈現單調上揚或下降的走勢。我們也發現，當資產替代程度趨近於無窮大時，則Barsky and Summers (1988)有關資產完全替代的假設為本文模型的一種特例。

By using the Barsky and Summers (1988) specification in the gold market, this thesis develops an open economy model featured with mutual interactions between the gold market and the foreign exchange market. To be more specific, based on the observation that the public treats gold as a financial asset, this thesis introduces the gold asset into the Dornbusch (1976) model, and uses it to examine the determination of exchange rates and gold prices. It is found that the asset substitutability between bonds and gold plays a crucial role for governing the transitional adjustment of exchange rates and gold prices upon receiving news of pre-announced macroeconomic policies.

目 錄
論文審定書 i
誌 謝 ii
中文摘要 iii
英文摘要 iv

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 文獻回顧 2
第三節 本文架構 5
第二章 基本模型 6
第一節 理論架構 6
第二節 長期均衡分析 10
第三節 動態相圖分析 16
第三章 政策宣告效果 22
第一節 財政政策 22
第二節 貨幣政策 30
第四章 結論 39
附錄 42
參考文獻 60

參考文獻
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