本文以負載特性調查研究為基礎，首先以分層隨機抽樣法決定抽樣用戶數，於抽樣戶裝置智慧型電錶，量測記錄用戶全年每15分之耗電量。將所收集之電錶資料作異常資料處理後，以統計分析方法推導出各行業別用戶正規化日負載模型。同時配合台電用戶資訊系統(CIS)之行業別用戶之售電量，推估北市及高雄兩區處之行業別負載組成。並應用統計迴歸分析方法擬合各行業別用戶用電量之溫度迴歸模型，探討其用電量受溫度變化影響之程度，以評估各行業別用戶及整個台電系統由於溫度變化所造成之負載變動量。
為探討負載特性對電力系統穩定度之影響，本文以台電345KV匯流排為架構，建立台電等效系統，結合負載特性調查之負載組成、負載溫度敏感度，推導溫度變化對系統負載的變化，於不同溫度下當系統發生故障時，負載特性對系統暫態穩定度之響應，及分析相對應之故障臨界時間。

A systematic procedure is proposed in this thesis to study the effect of temperature change to the power system load demand by using the typical load patterns of customer classes. The billing data of all service customers are retrieved to derive the daily load profile of the selected Taipower district. To verify the accuracy of the estimated load composition, the simulation results are compared to the actual load profile collected by the SCADA system. The sensitivity analysis of load demand with respect to the temperature change for each customer class is performed by statistic regression according to the actual customer power consumption and temperature data. With temperature rise, the load contribution by each customer class is updated by the corresponding temperature sensitivity and integrated together to form the new load profile of the service district.
To investigate the effect of customer load characteristics to system stability, the equivalent circuit of Taipower 345 KV network is created. With the integration of the load composition by load survey study and temperature sensitivity of customer load, the load demand of each load bus is derived. For fault contingency of system buses, the transient stability analysis has performed to determine the critical clearing time under different temperature conditions.

摘要
目錄
圖表索引
第一章 概論
第二章 負載特性調查
第三章 負載組成推估模式及行業別負載之溫度敏感度分析
第四章 溫度變化對台電輸電系統之影響
第五章 溫度變化對電力系統暫態穩定度之影響
第六章 結論
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