特殊保護系統在現代電力系統中被廣泛運用來提高電力系統供電之能力，其中特殊保護系統的架構可分為資訊收集、訊息處理、動作執行三個部份，而特殊保護系統成功的運轉歸功於各部份正常的運作；過去針對特殊保護系統進行可靠度評估時，僅考慮訊息處理邏輯與動作設備是否正常，然而近年來隨著訊息與通訊技術進步，特殊保護系統逐漸轉向自動化運轉，因此電力系統資訊收集與傳送扮演了很重要的角色。本論文採用隨機流量演算法，計算系統資訊無法即時送至特殊保護系統決策裝置與決策無法即時執行之機率，再利用故障樹與蒙地卡羅模擬計算特殊保護系統失效機率；另外本文比較於不同網路流量情境下，特殊保護系統的可靠度變化，證明訊息收集與傳送確實對特殊保護系統可靠度有所影響；本文所提出之架構可以於設計特殊保護系統時，比較使用不同通訊架構設計之可靠度，能夠幫助特殊保護系統設計者設計出更為完善之架構。

Special protection schemes (SPS) have been implemented by many utilities to maintain power system integrity. Successful operations of SPS depend on reliable sensors, actuators, controllers and data processing units involved. In the past, if performance analysis of SPS is conducted, only the reliability of processing and decision systems is considered assuming that the data needed for correct operations are always available. However, experiences have indicated that the performance of information and communication technologies (ICT) adopted plays an essential role of the SPS dependability. By adopting a stochastic-flow network to model the effect of communication network and using fault tree technique and Monte Carlo simulation to model the causes of failure on demand and spurious trip, this thesis presents reliability assessment results of a local SPS deployed in Taiwan power system. Test results indicate that the traffic of communication channels will affect the SPS reliability calculated.

論文審定書..........................................................i
致謝詞................................................................ii
摘要...................................................................iii
英文摘要............................................................iv
目錄...................................................................v
表目錄...............................................................vi
圖目錄..............................................................vii
第一章 緒論........................................................1
1.1 研究背景與動機.............................................1
1.2 世界各國特殊保護系統之應用..........................5
1.3 台電之特殊保護系統應用................................12
1.4 研究貢獻.......................................................15
1.5 論文內容概要................................................16
第二章 信息和通訊技術可靠度於電網之重要性.......17
2.1 ICT在電力系統中的角色.................................17
2.2 ICT系統中存在的威脅與漏洞...........................18
2.3自動化系統ICT故障評估...................................24
2.4 ICT故障與特殊保護系統可靠度........................27
第三章 可靠度分析方法........................................29
3.1故障模式影響分析...........................................29
3.2 定量分析方法................................................30
3.2.1 故障樹分析.................................................31
3.2.2 隨機流量演算法..........................................35
3.2.3 序列型蒙地卡羅模擬....................................43
3.2.4 非序列型蒙地卡羅模擬.................................47
3.3 靈敏度分析....................................................48
第四章 分析案例─台電冬山特殊保護系統...............50
4.1 台電冬山SPS簡介..........................................50
4.2 動作邏輯.......................................................52
4.3 通訊架構.......................................................55
第五章 特殊保護系統可靠度評估...........................58
5.1 分析流程.......................................................58
5.1.1 SPS之故障模式影響分析.............................58
5.2 SPS動作失敗機率之計算................................62
5.2.1 應用隨機流量網路法計算通訊可靠度.............62
5.2.2 故障樹模型-PFD.........................................65
5.3 SPS誤動作率之計算......................................68
第六章 模擬結果與討論........................................72
6.1 考慮ICT故障和不考慮ICT故障之PFD結果比較..73
6.2 不同網路流量條件下SPS可靠度之比較............75
6.3 蒙地卡羅法與故障樹之模擬結果比較................78
6.4 靈敏度分析結果.............................................79
6.5 可能的改善方案.............................................80
第七章 結論與未來研究方向.................................83
7.1 結論與建議...................................................83
7.2 未來研究方向...............................................86
參考文獻...........................................................87

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