本研究主要針對OECD 30個國家中探討1980年至2013年間結構性改變對於能源消費與經濟成長之關係的影響，本研究採用追蹤資料單根檢定及共整合檢定，並於檢視長期關係及短期關係時，將結構性改變之影響帶入向量誤差修正模型，以檢視結構性改變對於長短期關係之影響。

根據本研究發現：首先，證據指出在能源消費及石油消費與消費者物價指數及貨幣供應量M2呈現穩定之長期關係，其次，在結構性改變以前，能源消費、石油消費及電力消費與GDP存在短期關係，而結構性改變後這樣的關係為不顯著，再者，當不考慮結構性轉變時，消費者物價指數與總能源消耗為正相關，然而當加入結構性轉變後，消費者物價指數與總能源消耗則為負相關，研究顯示當我們忽略了結構性改變會導致管理當局可能採用具誤導性之結論。

This research adopts a panel analysis method to research the panel co-integration and panel vector error correction models for a set of 30 OECD countries by using annual data covering the period 1980-2013. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated by taking into account structural breaks when applying the vector error correction model.

The following results are found: Firstly, a fairly long-run relationship is acquired from the model between the two energy variables: Energy and petro-consumption, and the two economic variables: Consumer price index and M2. Secondly, after adopting structural breaks, the different results shown reflect the causality relationship: Before the structural break actually takes place, a short-run relationship exists between the three energy variables of energy, electricity, and petro-consumption, and the economic variable GDP. However, this relationship is not significant after the structural break. Thirdly, when structural breaks are not considered, the relationship between energy consumption and CPI is positive. After taking structural breaks into consideration, the relationship between energy consumption and CPI becomes negative. It is found that neglecting the impact of structural breaks tends to mislead policy makers about the direction and effect of the casual relationships.

致 謝 ii
摘 要 iii
Abstract iv
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vii
I. Introduction 1
II. Literature Review 4
III. Data description 8
IV. Methodology and empirical results 9
V. Conclusion 26
References 29

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