西元2011年3月11日，日本宮城縣東方外海發生規模9.0矩震級地震，除了強大的地震波襲擊東日本各城市以外，由地震所引發之海嘯更是對各沿海城市帶來更加嚴重的破壞。其中，日本東京電力公司所屬的福島核電廠也因為海嘯引發核外洩事件，核電使用安全議題再次引發全球關注。鄰近的我國同樣無法置身事外，國人陸續發起街頭運動，訴求核一、核二與核三廠立即或屆齡停機除役，同時必須用更嚴格的標準檢視興建中的龍門電廠(核四)。政府經過不斷的開會協商之後決議未來核能能源政策方針訂為「既有核能發電廠在預定除役日期到達後不予以延役；核四廠暫停施工，直到在確保在安全基礎上才會予以商轉」。而台電公司亦因應此政策下訂定了無核四版本之未來電源開發計劃，以供應未來可能持續成長的電力負載。

本文提出以改良式粒子群最佳化演算法-結合模糊控制器之具時變性質加速係數粒子群最佳化演算法(FCHTVAC-PSO)用以求解台灣電力系統24小時各時段發電成本最小化之動態經濟調度問題。除了考慮各時段供需平衡、各機組發電量限制、發電機升載率與降載率以外，亦考量負載潮流、匯流排電壓限制以及傳輸線容量等限制。本論文研究將著重於探討每部核能發電機組屆齡除役時，該年度24小時各時段最小發電成本動態經濟調度狀況，包含其結果對系統備載容量率、夏季與非夏季各時段每度電邊際成本等衝擊，作為未來電力系統規劃與電價制定主管機關之參考依據。

The 9.0 magnitude earthquake occurred on 11 March 2011 in the north-western Pacific Ocean, Not only the strong seismic waves but also tsunami caused destructive damage to the coastal city in eastern Japan,. The nuclear power safety became a big issues because of nuclear leakage incident. People started to attend street campaign to appeal for compulsory retirement of Nuclear Power Generators. At the same time , using more strict standard to examine the construction of the Long-Men (4th nuclear power plants). After negotiation meeting, Republic of China government announced 1st , 2nd and 3rd nuclear plant will be retired when arriving compulsory retirement date. And 4th nuclear power plant should be suspended the construction until safety measurement is finished. According to the policies, Taipower company proposed the power planning without nuclear power to supply increasing electric power load.

This thesis proposed the application of Fuzzy Controller Hybrid Time-Varying Acceleration Coefficients Particle Swarm Optimization (FCHTVAC-PSO) to solve the dynamic economic dispatch (DED) problem over the entire 24-hour period with minimum cost each hour period for Taiwan power system. The DED problem must satisfy the constraints of the load demand, generating limits, and also the limit of power flow, buses voltage and transmission line capacity. This thesis proposed a research focused on the minimum cost DED result with compulsory retirement of every nuclear power generators and variation of percent operating reserve and marginal cost.

目 錄
論文審定書 ..................................................................................................................... i
致謝 ................................................................................................................................ii
摘要 .............................................................................................................................. iii
Abstract ......................................................................................................................... iv
目錄 ................................................................................................................................ v
圖次 ..............................................................................................................................vii
表次 ................................................................................................................................ x
第一章 緒論 ................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 ............................................................................................ 1
1.2 研究方法與目的 ............................................................................................ 2
1.3 論文架構 ........................................................................................................ 3
第二章 台灣電力系統發電結構與電價發展現況分析 ............................................ 5
2.1 台灣電力公司之起源 .................................................................................... 5
2.2 台灣電力系統現今發電結構概況 ................................................................ 6
2.2.1 火力發電概況 ........................................................................................ 6
2.2.2 核能發電概況 ........................................................................................ 8
2.2.3 再生能源等發電概況 .......................................................................... 10
2.3 台灣電力系統電價發展現況分析 .............................................................. 11
第三章 台灣電力系統動態經濟調度模型之設計 .................................................. 15
3.1 等效電流注入法求解電力潮流問題 .......................................................... 15
3.1.1 負載匯流排模型推導 .......................................................................... 16
3.1.2 電壓控制匯流排模型推導 .................................................................. 20
3.2 台灣電力系統24 小時動態經濟調度模型與模擬案例設計 .................... 24
3.2.1 台電系統24 小時動態經濟調度數學模型之設計 ............................ 24
vi
3.2.2 模擬案例設計 ...................................................................................... 30
第四章 結合模糊控制器之具時變性質加速係數粒子群最佳化演算法 .............. 34
4.1 模糊理論 ...................................................................................................... 34
4.1.1 模糊集合與歸屬函數 .......................................................................... 35
4.1.2 模糊推論引擎與解模糊化 .................................................................. 36
4.2 粒子群最佳化演算法 .................................................................................. 38
4.3 具時變性質加速係數粒子群最佳化演算法 .............................................. 42
4.4 結合模糊控制器之具時變性質加速係數粒子群最佳化演算法設計 ...... 44
4.4.1 模糊控制器設計 .................................................................................. 44
4.4.2 結合模糊控制器之具時變性質加速係數粒子群最佳化演算法 ...... 49
第五章 系統測試與案例分析 .................................................................................. 51
5.1 改良型粒子群最佳化演算法之收斂測試 .................................................. 55
5.2 台灣電力系統24 小時動態經濟調度案例分析 ........................................ 61
5.2.1 案例一：民國104 年現況分析 .......................................................... 61
5.2.2 案例二：民國107 年核一廠第一機組除役分析 .............................. 68
5.2.3 案例三：民國108 年核一廠第二機組除役分析 .............................. 75
5.2.4 案例四：民國110 年核二廠第一機組除役分析 .............................. 82
5.2.5 案例五：民國112 年核二廠第二機組除役分析 .............................. 88
5.2.6 案例六：民國113 年核三廠第一機組除役分析 .............................. 94
5.2.7 案例七：民國114 年核三廠第二機組除役分析 ............................ 100
第六章 結論與未來研究方向 ................................................................................ 107
6.1 結論 ............................................................................................................ 107
6.2 未來研究方向 ............................................................................................ 109
參考文獻 .................................................................................................................... 110
附錄 ............................................................................................................................ 115

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