本論文考慮太陽能光電(PV)系統發電量及可靠度成本分析，達到最具投資成本效益之配電系統容量擴充規劃模式。根據各類型用戶樓地板面積與地區之開發強度，以負載密度法執行小區域目標年之負載預測，推估小區域單元內各類型用戶目標年最終負載，再根據各類型用戶之負載成長模式，推估個別規劃年小區域單元內各類型用戶的負載量。應用Markov模型預測太陽日照量，推估太陽能光電系統之發電量，作為未來配電系統變電所規劃之依據。考慮各區處負載特性，利用時間序列負載預測模式，推估未來二十年之尖峰負載，再利用主變壓器故障率（FOR），推估個別供電區年尖峰負載值對應之缺電機率（LOLE），並提出應用PV系統之主變壓器容量擴充計劃。為配合配電系統互聯容量限制，考慮相鄰供電區之容量轉供，重新擬定變電所容量規劃。本論文提出配電系統容量擴充規劃模式，在滿足配電系統可靠度之條件下，推導最佳主變壓器擴充時程，不但優於傳統變電所規劃模式且提升主變壓器容量擴充之投資成本效益。

This thesis investigates the capacity expansion of distribution substation of each service area considering PV system penetration to achieve the cost effectiveness of substation investment to comply with the service reliability. With the land use planning of Kaohsiung City Government, the load density of each small area for the target year is derived according to the final floor area and development strength of the land base. The load forecasting of each small area is then solved by considering the load growth of each customer class and a Markov model is applied for the forecasting of solar energy, which is then included in the expansion planning of substations. The forecasting of annual peak loadings for each area over the future 20 years is performed by the time series method based on the historical load data and load type of customers served. The forced outage rate （FOR） of main transformers in the substations is used to solve the loss of load expectation（LOLE） according to the peak loading of each service area. By this way, the capacity expansion planning of main transformers to meet the service reliability can therefore be derived. To further enhance the distribution system planning, the capacity transfer capability of main transformers and the tie line flow capacity between different areas are considered too. It is found that the expansion planning of main transformers by the proposed methodology can provide better cost effectiveness of transformer investment to satisfy the service reliability as well as the system peak loading.

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 ix
第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 1
1.3 論文內容概要 3
第二章 分散式再生能源模型與分析
2.1 前言 5
2.2 PV光伏特電池模型 5
2.2.1 特性曲線與模型 9
2.2.2 光電池類型及輸出效能分析 10
2.3 滲透率分析 13
2.3.1 光電池之滲透率影響因素 15
2.3.2 光電池配置與供電滲透率分析 20
2.4 Markov模型 22
2.4.1 連續每小時持續狀態模型 24
第三章 區域負載預測
3.1 前言 29
3.2停電管理系統 30
3.2.1停電管理系統操作介面 32
3.3區域單元內之最終飽和負載預測 33
3.4區域負載預測法 40
3.5單元規劃範例 43
3.6負載特性調查 49
3.6.1用戶日負載模型推導 50
第四章 考慮可靠度之變電所容量規劃
4.1 前言 51
4.2 可靠度理論 51
4.2.1 可靠度理論 51
4.2.2 單一變壓器組可靠度模式 52
4.3 區域性供電可靠度分析 56
4.3.1 新興供電區可靠度分析 56
4.3.2 四維供電區可靠度分析 66
4.4 區域性互聯供電可靠度分析 74
4.5 結論 78
第五章 結論與未來研究方向
5.1 結論 79
5.2未來研究方向 80
參考文獻 82

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