本研究探討黑潮入侵東海陸棚的機制，採用2003年1月至2010年12月的Argos浮球歷史資料，配合數值模式(EASNFS)結果。分析流速、海表面高度、渦度等資料，討論渦漩與黑潮入侵東海陸棚之變化。
研究結果顯示：(1) 以200m等深線為界，入侵東海的浮球共計68顆，未入侵則有18顆。浮球四季皆有入侵現象，春季8組、夏季13組、秋季21組、冬季26組，各月份皆有入侵現象產生。(2)浮球入侵時機配合數值模式，冷渦有42組，暖渦有10組，冷渦與暖渦渦漩分布約為4:1，冷暖渦漩同時存在有16組。(3)模式8年長期平均海流的漂流軌跡，與18顆未入侵東海的浮球軌跡相比，流徑相似；參照sb-ADCP(20m)平均流速棍棒圖，證明數值模式(EASNFS)的可靠性。入侵東海的浮球，秋冬持續性較高，春夏持續性較短暫。(4)春季，上游區域渦度值大時(0~1.5)，會影響下游黑潮主軸更偏向東海陸棚，產生入侵現象。

The mechanisms of Kuroshio intrusion onto East China Sea (ECS) were analyzed, applying historical Argos drifter tracks from January 2003 to December 2010, and (EASNFS) numerical modeling results. The relationships of eddies and Kuroshio intrusions were analyzed based on flow velocities, sea surfave high anomalies, and vorticities.
Results showed that (1) there were 68 drifters intruded, using 200 m contour as boundary, onto the continental shelf ECS, and 18 drifters following the long-term average path of Kuroshio. Drifters intrusion occurred at all seasons, 8 in spring, 13 in summer, 21 in fall, and 26 in winter. (2) Statistics of eddies during drifter intrusion showed 42 cyclonic eddies and 10 anticyclonic (high pressure) eddies, a ratio of 4: 1. There were 16 cases of co-exist anti- and cyclonic eddies. (3) Long-term average flow pattern (8 years of EASNFS) agreed well with the 18 drifter tracks not intruded. This results verified, to centain degree, the robustness of modeling results. The endurance of drifter intrusion showed more persistance in winter and autumn than spring and summer. (4) In spring season, the vorticity in up-stream with high values (0~1.5) might cause the main axis of Kuroshio down stream shifted to coastal region, and consequential Kuroshio intrusion.

謝誌 i
摘要 ii
英文摘要 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 前言 1
1-2 文獻回顧 5
1-3 研究目的 8
第二章 資料來源 9
2-1 Argos浮球資料 9
2-2 EASNFS模式資料 11
第三章 資料處理分析 12
3-1 浮球資料軌跡品管 12
3-2 浮球軌跡與不同深度海流之關係 15
3-3 EASNFS模式渦度分析 20
第四章 結果與討論 21
4-1 浮球軌跡特性 21
4-2 表面流場和浮球軌跡之比較 28
4-2-1浮球ID-42559與海表面高度 29
4-2-2浮球ID-21619與海表面高度 33
4-3 渦度場和渦漩關係 38
4-3-1浮球ID-42559路徑渦度變化情形 39
4-3-2浮球ID-21619路徑渦度變化情形 42
4-4 浮球軌跡與渦度相關性 46
4-4-1浮球軌跡與漂流軌跡之比較 46
4-4-2渦度相關性之討論 57
第五章 結論 64
第六章 參考文獻 66

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