洋流能源為一種再生能源，但卻沒有被充分廣泛的開發。洋流發電需要大量的投資，因此如何從洋流發電系統獲取最大的能量相當重要。洋流發電在特定週期內受到輸出限制的原因是由於天候情況及遠距離傳輸導致故障率的上升與修復時間較長。此論文使用了在台灣近海的洋流流速紀錄資料，藉由故障樹分析與網路簡化法，分析不同離岸電能收集架構和傳輸方式之可靠度，並計算無法傳送能量指標。分析模式中參數不確定性對系統可靠度之影響與這些架構的經濟評估也包含在本研究的分析中。

Marine energy is a renewable source that has not been exploited widely. Fetching the off-shore marine energy requires a lot of investments, thus, maximizing the power delivered by the marine current system is important. Marine current power generation may be limited during certain periods due to weather situation and far distance power transmission that makes failure rate arise and repair time long. In this thesis, using marine current speed recorded at Taiwan coastline, we analyze the reliability and not-delivery energy indices of different off-shore power collection topologies and transmission system by using fault tree analysis and network reduction method. Model parameter uncertainty effects on the system reliability are studied and economic assessments of these configurations are also conducted.

中文摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 III
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VIII

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 海流特性與海流發電介紹 3
1.3 世界各地海流發電簡介 7
1.4 離岸發電系統可靠度與經濟分析相關研究文獻 9
1.5 論文架構 22

第二章 洋流發電之可靠度分析 23
2.1 可靠度定義與相關分析方法 23
2.1.1 可靠度基本參數與指標 23
2.1.2 故障模式及影響分析 24
2.1.3 網路簡化法 26
2.1.4 故障樹分析法 28
2.1.5 參數之不確定性因素 32
2.2 離岸洋流發電系統可靠度評估之模型 35
2.2.1 影響洋流發電可靠度之因素 35
2.2.2 本研究所計算之可靠度評估指標 37
2.3 洋流資料統計分析之方法 39
2.3.1 洋流資料之統計分析 39
2.3.2 發電機參數之選擇方法 41
2.4 區域離岸能源場發電機相互影響因素 43
2.5 離岸發電至岸邊之電能傳輸方式 50
2.5.1 交流傳輸 50
2.5.2 直流傳輸 51
2.6 離岸能源場電能收集系統之架構 53
2.6.1 放射狀架構 53
2.6.2 單端環狀架構 54
2.6.3 雙端環狀架構 54
2.6.4 星形架構 55
2.7 洋流發電之經濟評估 56
2.7.1 影響離岸系統發電之成本因素 56
2.7.2 離岸發電系統之經濟分析 57

第三章 可靠度分析與經濟評估 60
3.1 洋流資料之分析結果與發電機之參數選擇 60
3.2 區域能源場之平均輸出功率分析 62
3.3 不同集電架構之可靠度分析 65
3.3.1 可靠度分析 65
3.3.2 不確定因素之影響分析 74
3.4 不同集電架構之經濟評估 77

第四章 結論與未來研究方向 82
4.1 結論與建議 82
4.2 未來研究方向 84

參考文獻 85

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