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博碩士論文 etd-0711102-120115 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0711102-120115
論文名稱
Title
供應鏈不確定性指標建立之研究
The Construction of Supply Chain Uncertainty Indicator
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
104
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2002-06-25
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2002-07-11
關鍵字
Keywords
不確定性衡量、供應鏈管理
Measurement of Uncertainty, Supply Chain Management
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5824 次,被下載 87
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5824 times, has been downloaded 87 times.
中文摘要
結合企業流程再造與網際網路的發展,全球運籌管理及供應鏈管理已成為二十一世紀無法抵擋的潮流。供應鏈是透過鏈結關係將企業上、下游相關的個體串聯起來形成一個複雜的階層式網狀架構,企業透過這些鏈結關係改善其作業流程以求供應鏈成本的降低或是能夠快速反應市場的需求。在此複雜的供應鏈網路關係仍存在著許多的不確定性因素,而這些不確定性因素會降低整體供應鏈管理的績效,使得企業欲推行供應鏈以提升競爭優勢大打折扣。換言之,能夠了解供應鏈的不確定性因素並且加以控制,即能將不確定性的影響降至最低。
以往研究僅就單一製造面探討因應不確定性的製造改善方式,或是僅就需求面探討產品特性對需求面的影響,但是供應鏈涉及上、下游多個企業的整合,推行企業供應鏈的時候必須對供給、製造與需求三大構面進行完整的分析與探討。故本研究以供應鏈推行主導廠商的觀點,整合供給、製造與需求三大構面,對不確定性因素做完整的分析。本研究首先透過文獻探討將可能之不確定性來源做初步歸類,由學術與業界專家組成之焦點團體,經由數次討論對於不確定性因素的變數作篩選,最後建立供應鏈需求、供給與製造三大構面不確定性因素之變數,再利用探索性因素分析來歸納出具代表性的指標因素,並輔以相關分析來驗證指標之間的獨立性。
研究結果在有關需求不確定性包含了4項指標,分別為:通路、產品特性、需求預測與需求變更,其中又以「通路」指標最能夠代表需求面的不確定性。有關供給面的不確定性包含了4項指標,分別為;供應商能力、採購任務類型、採購物料特性、與供應商穩定的合作關係、採購交貨,其中又以「供應商能力」最為重要。有關製造不確定性包含了3項指標,分別為;產品複雜度、流程複雜度、工程變更,尤以「產品複雜度」指標最能代表製造不確定性的來源。
本研究確定了跨產業供應鏈不確定性指標,有助於企業推動供應鏈管理時,了解自身所面臨的不確定性因素,並可利用此指標探就不同產業供應鏈所面臨不確定性的差異。

Abstract
Due to the development of business process reengineering(BPR) and Internet, global logistics management and supply chain management(SCM) have been unresistible trend for companies. Supply chain is a complex hierarchical network which links members from upstream to downstream industries. Enterprise can improve process through these linkages to cut down cost or shorten its response time to market. As the scope of inter-organizational activities enlarges, there exist many uncertainty factors in the supply chain network. The existence of such factor not only reduces the performance of supply chain as a whole but also the competitive advantage of individual companies in the supply chain. In other words, understanding and controlling SCM uncertainty factors will mitigate their deleterious impact.
The concern of past research only addressed a single dimension of supply chain uncertainty, which is either focused upon production process on the manufacturing side or upon product characteristics on the demand side. This research proposed supply chain uncertainty constructs including demand, manufacturing, and supply aspects, which was based upon the perspective of leading company in a supply chain.This set of constructs was based upon literature survey and examination of focus group formed by academic and industry experts. Exploratory factor analysis was called upon to find out representative factors and correlation analysis was conducted to verify independence of the constructs.
The research results indicated that channel, product characteristics, demand forcast, and demand change were included in demand uncertainty. Especially, the channel construct is the most representative one. In the supply aspect, supplier’s ability, type of procurement, material characteristics and stable relationship with suppliers were included in supply uncertainty. Especially, the supplier’s ability is the most representative. In the manufacturing aspect, product complexity, process complexity and engineering change were included in manufacturing uncertainty. Especially, the product complexity construct is the most representative one.
This research has established supply chain uncertainty factors. It will be helpful for companies using this scale to evaluate their uncertainty situations. Comparision among heterogeneous industries is also possible because this scale can be applied to discover their differences.

目次 Table of Contents
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究目的與動機 3
1.3 論文架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 不確定性因素 6
2.2 需求不確性因素 14
2.3 供給不確定性因素 17
2.4 製造不確定性因素 23
2.5 小結 29
第三章 供應鏈不確定性因素構面建立方法 35
3.1 定義構面領域 36
3.2 擬出研究包含變數 36
3.3 檢測衡量工具 37
3.4 大樣本的問卷測試 38
3.5效度檢驗 38
3.6信度檢驗 39
第四章 供應鏈不確定性因素構面建立的過程與結果分析 40
4.1 定義構面的領域 40
4.2 擬定研究所包含的變數 40
4.3 檢測衡量工具 49
4.4 大樣本的問卷測試 53
4.5 效度與信度檢驗 56
第五章 結論與建議 70
5.1 研究回顧 70
5.2 研究結論 70
5.3 研究限制 72
5.4 研究貢獻 74
5.5 後續研究建議 74
參考文獻 76
中文參考文獻 76
英文參考文獻 77
附錄A 81
附錄B 93
B-1需求不確定性因素分析 93
B-2 供給不確定性因素分析 96
B-3 製造不確定性因素分析 99

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