濕地為全球三大生態系統之一，其具有保水抑洪、調解水患、野生動物棲息地的作用、穩定海岸線等多方面的功能與價值。隨著經濟快速發展、人口增加導致土地資源不敷使用，濕地區域成為競相開發利用之對象，造成濕地面積減少或零碎化，使得整體濕地生態環境劣化及資源枯竭。為避免濕地區域土地不當開發利用繼續蔓延，需就濕地環境之社會經濟、生態環境及管理策略等面向整合考量，以引導其合理利用，方達濕地資源永續發展。
因此，本研究以現今即將面臨轉置成高雄市興達港遊艇產業專區的茄萣濕地為例，使用群體建模方法擷取茄萣濕地區域權益相關者對於濕地轉置成遊艇產業專區之認知與建議。而後，使用系統動力學之動態模擬技術，建立符合茄萣濕地區域現況之動態模式並進行相關情境政策分析。
本研究結果顯示，茄萣濕地採用濕地特定區、人工浮島與補償替代費之單一政策與多重政策組合進行濕地管理時，其管理策略最佳化執行作業分別為單一政策以濕地特定區劃設機制；多重政策組合以濕地特定區與人工浮島之政策組合。同時，政策解析過程中，提供權益相關者了解濕地環境系統作用行為，亦檢核模式行為趨勢與心智模式落差性，促發權益相關者進行事件行為反思與心智模式改善，達到群組於事件行為之共識。

Wetland, one of the three major ecosystems on earth, can prevent flood, purify water quality and provide habitat for wildlife; also protects the shore line from erosion, and has many other functions and values. Owing to the economic development and the rapid population growth, the land resource has being inadequate to meet all demands. Thus, coastal wetlands have become the target of development. This tendency causes reduction and fragmentary of wetlands, degradation of ecosystem and depletion of ecological resources. To avoid the improper development on the wetland, it is necessary to integrate considerations over the social economy, ecosystem, and management strategy. Based on the unique feature of the wetland, it is therefore possible to effectively manage the wetland resources for achieving the goal of sustainable development.
This study explores the group model building approach which design for the discussion of the various potential effects of the yacht industry park may have on Cheting Wetland. Participants of stakeholders in Cheting had met several times and the structured debates had been organized with them in order to promote the emergence of a consensual view of the main issues and their implications. And then, a system dynamic model was built to evaluate the development in the wetlands zone. The authentic results of the policies and scenario analyses inspected the effectiveness of the designate plans for Cheting Wetland development.
Particular Wetland Zone, Artificial Floating Island and In Lieu Fee were adopted as management strategies in Cheting Wetland Zone case. The study concludes that: under single-policy condition, implementation of Particular Wetland Zone is the best management strategy; while under the multi-policy conditions, the combination of Wetland Zone and Artificial Floating Island would have the best managerial performance. Additional benefits of the GMB study include: (1) providing stakeholders with information and knowledge to understand the behavior of wetland environment system; (2) A revealing gap between system behavior patterns and participants’ mental model. Both achievements will further promote the participants to introspect and to improve their mental model, eventually help the whole community to reach consensus about wetland management.

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
目 錄 III
圖 目 錄 V
表 目 錄 VIII

第一章 前言 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究流程 3
1.4 研究範圍與限制 5

第二章 文獻回顧 8
2.1濕地環境之管理 8
2.2群體建模之應用 9
2.3系統動力學之應用 11

第三章 研究方法 15
3.1系統動力學 15
3.1.1系統動力學理論 15
3.1.2系統動力學之組成元件 17
3.1.3系統動力學建模流程 20
3.2群體建模 21

第四章 模式架構與建置 24
4.1濕地管理之評估指標 25
4.2建構量化模擬模式 29
4.2.1社會經濟子系統 29
4.2.2環境狀態子系統 44
4.2.3管理政策子系統 61
第五章 模式驗證與情境分析 66
5.1模式驗證 66
5.2情境及政策分析 70
5.2.1無遊艇專區設置 71
5.2.2遊艇專區設置 73
5.2.3遊艇專區設置下單一政策 77
5.2.4遊艇專區設置下多重政策 93
5.3政策總整理 97

第六章 結論與建議 100
6.1結論 100
6.2建議 103

參考文獻 105
附錄A STELLA程式碼說明 110
意見回覆表 131

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