台灣地區行動通信業者面臨第二代（2G）與第三代行動通信（3G）的使用者轉移問題，以及政府電信政策開放；如行動電話門號號碼可攜（MNP;Mobile Number Protability）、新3G競爭者的進入等因素影響，使其營收不如預期等問題。然而新3G競爭者對台灣大3G用戶影響最大，且台灣大的實際3G使用率偏低。本研究針對『3G業者動態決策對用戶擴散之影響』此問題做探討，由於此問題特性為高階、非線形、時間滯延，傳統的研究方法如個案研討（Case Study）其缺乏數量的基礎，無法模擬出每一種可行方案的效果。對於問題的解決方案可能導致的結果無法評估，因此很容易作出錯誤的決策。另外一些數學研究方法並無法解釋真實問題的動態本質。這類方法如線性方法、排隊理論、蒙地卡羅模擬等，都是線形且靜態的，無法處理高階、動態的問題。對於實際管理問題的解決，並沒有幫助。而系統動力學可以解決動態性複雜特性的問題；由透過問題的描述、邊界的定義、系統模式建立、模式的測試與模擬等步驟來了解問題的結構與行為並做出政策的設計與評估。
本研究採用系統動力學研究方法以BASS擴散模型為基礎，以計劃行為理論觀點建構3G採用關鍵因素，作為建模之依據。本研究之目的為利用系統動力學建立台灣大3G使用者擴散模型，透過情境模擬找出影響系統行為之主導環路與高槓桿解，作為政策設計時之參考。
本研究結論為（一）業者若持續採取高額GSM手機補貼綁約銷售政策，將出現『自己造成之成長上限』行為。當市場出現價格競爭時，此政策將導致3G實際用戶數偏低。而業者最佳營收政策應配合手機價格縮短GSM合約期限或提前停止GSM綁約銷售時程。（二）若寡佔市場所有業者不做積極價格競爭時，業者間競爭關係將出現『富者愈富、貧者愈貧』。而業者最佳營收政策應採多階段之資費政策，配合網路負載，爭取高資料傳輸用戶為目標。中後期（約36個月後）再降低客戶進入門檻，以增加客戶數為目標。此政策模擬與目前業者採取之政策方案明顯差異。（三）如果市場所有業者積極縮短GSM用戶轉移至3G用戶之時程，而縮短GSM合約期限，業者的3G網路建設政策應配合客戶擴散領先指標做動態性政策搭配。系統動力學情境政策模擬常出現與業者既存觀念相反之反直覺（Counter-Intuitive）現象，可避免業者政策設計時之侷限思考。

The mobile operators face the problem that the users how to transfer from 2G to 3G as well as telecommunication policy has been opened by government； mobile number protablility、the new 3G competitor’s entry as to result in unexpected revenue in Taiwan. However, the new 3G competitor，s entry with the great impact on TWM, then the actual utility is lower of TWM. The study is exploring for 『The effect on subscribers diffusion 3G mobile optrator dynamic decision effect on』, because the property of problem is high order、nonlinear、time delay, the traditional approach lacking of quantifying basis such as Case Study which cannot simulate the consequence of feasible policy. It cannot estimate what becomes of the solution, thus apt to making wrong decision. Others mathematics approachs cannot explain the dynamic essence of the practical problem. All these approaches are linear and static as linear programing、Queuing Theory、 Monte Carlo Simulation that cannot solve the high order、dynamic problem. These approaches are no usefulness in solving practical management problem. However, System Dynamics is able to solve the dynamic complexity problem that trough the steps of problem description、 boundary definition、system model constructing、 model testing and simulation to understand the structure and behavior of problem, moreover, to do policy design and evaluation.
This study is as system dynamics approach on the foundation of BASS diffusion model and constructing model upon the 3G adoption critical factor in the viewpoint of Theory of Planed Behavior. The objective of study is to construct the diffusion model of TWM subscribers upon system dynamics, then to seek the leading loop and high leverage of behavior through scenario analysis for consultation in policy design.
The conclusion of study as following（1）if the operators take high allowance of GSM handset bundling contract sales, will trun up『The self-limit to growing』. When the price competition between operators in the market, the policy will cause that TWM 3G actual subscribers are lower. The best revenue policy is to shorten GSM contract duration by handset price or ceasing GSM bundling contract sales schedule to be advanced.（2）If all the operators do not do the competition in price aggressively in oligopoly, the relationship between competitors will result in『The rich more rich and the poor more poor』. The best revenue policy for operator is the tariff shall be divided into different stages to co-operate with network load and to acquire high data usage subscribers for the goal. It shall reduce the threshold of customer entry for the sake of increasing subscribers in the middle stage. There is an obvious discrenpancy between the best policy in simulation and operator taking. （3）If the operators attempt to shorten the timetable of subscribers from GSM transfer to 3G as to shorten GSM contract duration, the network constructing policy should do dynamic policy co-operation with the leading indicator of subscribers diffusion. The scenario simulation upon system dynamics that the counter-intuitive phenomenon often contrasts to the operator’s preconception, avoiding to the confined thinking in policy design.

1. 緒論
1.1研究背景
1.3研究目的
1.4 研究限制
1.5研究架構與流程
1.6論文架構
2.文獻探討
2.1系統動力學理論發展相關文獻
2.2 經濟學上網路外部性
2.3創新擴散模型
2.4 通信產業定價
2.5 計劃行為理論
3 信產業概況
3.1 電信產業市場概述
3.2個案外部環境分析
3.3 個案公司簡介
4 系統動力學模型建構與應用
4.1 系統動力學建模
4.2 數學方程式
4.3 模型基本模擬
4.4 模型效度測試
5 情境分析與政策模擬
5.1 情境一模擬
5.2 情境二模擬
5.3 情境模擬三
5.4 小結
6 結論與後續研究建議
6.1 研究結論與貢獻
6.2 後續研究及建議
7 參考文獻
7.1 國外相關參考文獻
7.2 國內相關參考文獻

國外相關參考文獻:
Fourt, L. A., & Woodlock, J. W. (1960, October). Early prediction of early success of new grocery products. Journal of Marketing,25, 31– 38.
Mansfield, E. (1961). “Technical change and the rate of imitation ”Econometrica, 29, Page 741– 766.
Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Stigler, G.J. 1968. “The Organization of Industry”. Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin.
Adams, W.; Yellen, J. (1976), “Commodity bundling and the burden of monopoly”,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90, pp. 475 – 498.
Schmalensee 1982 “Commodity bundling by single product monopolies” Journal of Law and Economics,25,67-71.
Lewbel.A, 1985,“Bundling of substitutes or complement ”, International Journal of Industrial Organization. 3, 101-107.
Richard Schmalensee 1984 “Gaussian Demand and Commodity Bundling” The Journal of Business, Vol. 57, No. 1, Part 2: Pricing Strategy (Jan., 1984), S211-S230.
Mahajan, Vijay and Robert Peterson. 1985. Models for Innovation Diffusion. Newbury Park,CA; Sage Publications.
Michael L. Katz, Carl Shapiro1985 “Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility” The American Economic Review, Vol. 75, No. 3, pp. 424-440
Eppen GD, Hanson WA, Martin RK 1991 “Bundling--new products, new markets, low risk” Sloan Management Rev. Summer,vol. 23, pp. 7-14.
Paun, D., 1993. “When to bundle or unbundle products,” Industrial Marketing Management, 22: 29-34.
Jay W. Forrester 1995 , ”Counter-intuitive Behavior of Social System” Systems Dynamics in Education Project in Massachusetts Institute of Technolog.
David Gabel, August 1996 “Costing and Pricing standars for telcommunications interconnections” ,Queens College The National Regulatory Research Institute Volume 12, Issue 3, Date: Autumn (Fall) 1996, Pages: 211-234
Peter M. Milling 1996 “Modeling innovation processes for decision support and management simulation”System Dynamics Review Volume 12, Issue 3, Date: Autumn (Fall) 1996, Pages: 211-234
Herrmann, A., Huber, F., and Coulter, R. H. 1997, “Product and Service Bundling Decisions and their Effects on Purchase Intention” Pricing Strategy & Practice, 5(3): 99 – 107
Jean-Jacques Laffont, Patrick Rey, Jean Tirole, 1997 “Competition between Telecommunications operators”, Eurpean Economic Review 41
Frank H. Maier 1998 “New product diffusion models in innovation management - a system dynamics perspective”System Dynamics ReviewVolume 14, Issue 4, Date: Winter 1998, Pages: 285-308
Mark Armstrong, May 1998 “Network Interconnection in Telecommunication”, Economic Journal
Tommaso M. Valletti & Antonio Estache, March 1998 “The theory of access pricing: an overview for infrastructure regulators”, Prepared for the World Bank Institute
Eero Wallenius1, Timo Hämäläinen, 2002 “Pricing model for 3G/4G networks”, Nokia Oyj IP Mobility Networks (IMN) & University of Jyväskylä, Department of Mathematical Information Technology
Andreas Jonason, 2002 “Innovative Pricing”, Royal Institute of Technology Department of Industrial Economics and Management
Douglas Franco,2003 “Modeling the Telecommunication Market”, The 21rd International Conference of the System Dynamics
Yulin Fang Richard,2003 “A Conceptual Model of Operating Internet-based B2C Business In Fast-growing Industries”, Ivey School of Business The University of Western Ontario ,The 21rd International Conference of the System Dynamics
A.B. Blinov, A.I. Koblov, V.I. Shiryaev 2003 “Dentification of Carrying Capacity of the Market And Synthesis of a Cellular Communication Company Price Strategy” , The 21rd International Conference of the System Dynamics
Oleg V. Pavlov, 2003 “Using System Dynamics to Assess Economic Feasibility of Satellite-Augmented Cellular Networks”, The 21rd International Conference of the System Dynamics
Dutta, A.; Sridhar 2003 “Modeling growth of cellular services in India: a systems dynamics approach”, V.; 6-9 Jan 2003 Page(s):10 pp. /HICSS.
E.D. Adamides1, N. Pomonis1 and Y. Stamboulis 2003 “Embedding game-theoretic concepts into system dynamics models: The case of complementary products development”,The 21rd International Conference of the System Dynamics .
Yueping Chen ,2003 “Economic Dynamics in Mobile Service Industry of China”, The 21rd International Conference of the System Dynamics.
Costas Courcoubetis , Richard Weber, Marlana Coe 2003 “Pricing Communication Network: Economics, Technology and Modeling” , Wiely- Interscience Series in System and Optimization.
Gil Shapira ,2004 “System Dynamics Simulation of the Telecom Industry”, Master of Science in Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Portio Research 2004 “Mobile Fact Book” Published in August 2004
Takanori Ida Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University Yoshida, Sakyoku 2004 “Discrete Choice Model Analysis of Mobile Telephone Service Demand in Japan”, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan and Toshifumi Kuroda Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University Yoshida, Sakyoku, Kyoto.
Wenqing Wang; Cheong, 2005 “Using system dynamics to simulate the strategic planning of the mobile commerce terminal (MCT) industry and mobile commerce diffusion”
國內相關參考文獻:
宋彥青 2001年“行動電話消費行為之研究—業者、費率方案、與使用量混合需求模式”, 國立成功大學交通管理學系碩士論文,
戴紹琪 2001年“OECD及台灣之行動電話用戶數擴散的時間軌跡研究”, 國立臺灣大學/經濟學研究所碩士論文
川嶋一郎、吉川尚宏、姬野桂一、桑津浩太郎、此本臣吾、椎野孝雄、中井浩之、田崎嘉邦、張正武、高韶霞、林怡靜和陳英華，（2001年），”第三代行動通信執照競價釋出整體規劃研究案”,日商野村總合研究所
林宏怡 2002年“新產品擴散之動態研究－系統動力學觀點”,大葉大學碩士論文
洪昌哲 2002年3G環境下行動服務產業經營之研究”,國立中山大學高階經營碩士論文
黃佳櫻2002“建構行動商務的關鍵成功因素”, 國立臺灣大學碩士論文
黃仁德、姜樹翰2002年”電信定價制度之探討” 學術網站
彼得-聖吉2003年著，”第五項修煉-學習型組織的藝術與實務”
廖俊雄、許心怡（2003），「寡占電信市場行銷組合訂價策略之研究」，公平交易季刊，11：2，111-148
曾幼蘭2003年“影響行動電話使用者選擇行動上網服務相關因素之探討”, 國立台灣科技大學管理研究所碩士論文,
樊晉源 2003年“創新產品多代擴散模式系統動力學研究-以電視遊戲機產業為例,大葉大學事業經營碩士論文,
謝文雀、游蓓怡 、 胡同來 2003年“行動電話系統服務商競爭優勢之研究”,臺北科技大學學報第三十七之一期
趙雅萍2003年“行動商務在台灣之發展：與日本電信產業之比較”, 銘傳大學/國際企業學系碩士論文
林謂立2003年”一個涵蓋通訊、應用與辨識服務的行動商務費率設定模式”, 國立交通大學資訊管理碩士論文
王前智2003年“行動電話月租費方案對用戶通話量之影響” 國立成功大學電信管理碩士論文
范國恩 2004年“行動電話服務市場之轉換用戶市場區隔研究－以台北市地區為例”, 國立成功大學電信管理研究所碩士論文
張正明2004年“多代擴散模型實證研究 ─ 以日本地區電信業者 NTT DoCoMo為例”,國立交通大學管理學院碩士論文,
謝政勳2004年“應用分解式計劃行為理論探討消費者採用第三代行動通訊服務意願之研究”, 樹德科技大學資訊管理研究所碩士論文
陳德明2004年“我國行動通信市場策略之研究-以競合理論來探討”, 國立中山大學資訊管理碩士論文
薛瑞文2004年“台灣行動電話產業管理飛行模擬器之發展與政策實驗”, 屏東科技大學資訊管理系碩士論文
林宗延2004年“行動電話服務轉換障礙對轉換意願之影響－以大台北地區為例” , 銘傳大學管理研究所碩士論文
何明珊2004年“行動加值服務市場區隔與使用意願之研究” 國立成功大學電信管理研究所碩士論文
MIC 資訊市場情報中心Market Intelligence Center 2005“數位內容市場重要指標分析”
秦素霞 2005 MIC 資訊工業策進會“潘朵拉之盒子-探索3G世代更替之價值鏈破壞與增生”
MIC 資訊工業策進會2006 “順流、逆流-MVNO發展機會與挑戰分析”情報顧問產業研究報告。
陳恆中博士 2006年MIC 資訊工業策進會2006 “2006 3G Development”
劉惟珺、 戴基峰“2006年第一季台灣行動電話產業產銷動態瞭望”MIC資策會FIND�經濟部工業局「電信平台應用發展推動計畫」
“2006年我國家庭寬頻、行動與無線應用現況與需求調查--行動無線應用”「資策會FIND�經濟部工業局「電信平台應用發展推動計畫」