政府規模大小一直是學術界及公共領域研究的熱門議題，究應是一個大有為全能政府好，還是小而美的廉能政府優？本文主要為研究台灣地方政府支出規模的決定因素及其影響關係，以台灣20個縣市政府為研究範圍，採用1998~2013年之追蹤資料，先作單根檢定確定樣本量為定態，再建立雙維靜態追蹤資料模型，分別進行隨機效果模型、固定效果模型估計與Hausman檢定，並為避免內生性問題，將前一期因變數加入估計式中，建立動態追踨模型，採用2-step GMM估計方法，選取因變數落後1至3期作為工具變數，進行估計及Hansen檢定，以求得最有效的估計及穩健一致的實證結果。最後再進一步將研究樣本分成六都及十四縣市2個組別進行迴歸估計，以觀察各自變數對政府規模的影響程度在六都與十四縣市之差異。
實證結果發現：
一、人均實質所得與政府支出規模關係有著相當程度的負向關係，Wagner法則在台灣地方政府並不適用。
二、縣市人口佔比與政府支出規模為負向關係，即規模經濟假說在台灣地方政府是成立的。
三、Leviathan假說在台灣地方政府並不成立，財政分權並無法約束地方政府規模擴張，反而因收支分權及補助制度而擴張政府支出的規模。
四、分組估計結果，(一)在六都組的人均實質所得對政府支出規模影響程度大幅降低、財政分權影響程度亦變小。(二)在十四縣市組則人口佔比對政府支出規模(規模經濟)影響程度變為不顯著、財政分權影響程度則大幅提高。

The size of government has been an issue in both academia and the public sector whether a large and complete government is better than a small and efficient government. In the study, we discuss the determinant factors and the impacts of the scale of local government expenditure in Taiwan. First, unit root test is used to examine the panel data of 20 local governments in Taiwan between 1998 and 2013 to ensure the data is stationary. Second, the two-dimensional and static panel data model is built up and it is estimated by the random effect model and the fixed effect model and verified by the Hausman test respectively. In order to prevent endogeneity problems, a dynamic panel model is used by adding previous endogenous variables to the equation. The lag lengths of the endogenous variables are from 1 to 3 for the two-step GMM estimation in order to reach effective and consistent empirical results. Finally, the data is divided into two groups: 6 special municipalities and 14 county-controlled cities. Regression analysis is adopted to discuss the difference of the relationship between the variables and the scale of local governments in special municipalities and country-controlled cities. The empirical results show that
(i)There is a negative relationship between national income per capita and the scale of government expenditure, which means The Wagner’s Law is invalid for the local governments in Taiwan.
(ii)There is a negative relationship between population density and the scale of government expenditure. The hypothesis of economies of scale is efficient for the local governments in Taiwan.
(iii)Leviathan hypothesis is invalid for the local governments in Taiwan. Fiscal decentralization cannot restrict the expansion of local governments. Instead, revenue decentralization and expenditure decentralization and central fiscal subsidies help expand the scale of local governments’ expenditure.
(iv)The estimation in the two groups show that: (1) In 6 special municipalities, the influence of national income per capita to the scale of government expenditure decreases significantly and the effect of fiscal decentralization declines as well. (2) In 14 country-controlled cities, the influence of population to the scale of government expenditure is not obvious, while the effect of fiscal decentralization increases considerably.

論文審定書……………………………………………………….…..……i
中文摘要…………………………………………………………..………ii
Abstract……………………………………………………..……………iii
目錄…………………………………………………………….…….……v
圖次……………………………………………………………….………vi
表次…………………………………………………………...….………vii
第一章 緒論…………………………………………..………………… 1
第一節 研究動機與目的……………….………………..……………… 1
第二節 研究架構…………………………………………………………6
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………...……………… 7
第一節 政府支出規模相關理論文獻……………………………………7
第二節 實證文獻回顧 …………………………………………………12
第三章 實證模型與研究方法……………………………….…………17
第一節 資料來源與變數說明 …………………………...……………17
第二節 研究方法介紹…………………………………………………19
第三節 實證模型………………………………………….……………23
第四章 實證結果及分析………………………………….……………24
第一節 敘述統計 ………………………………………………………24
第二節 單根檢定結果………………………………………………… 28
第三節 實證結果………………………………..……….….………… 30
第四節 討論與比較……………………………………….…………… 32
第五章 結論與建議 ……………………………………….……………34
第一節 結論………………………………………………….….………34
第二節 政策及建議 ………………………………………….…………35
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………37

一、中文部分
行政院主計總處中華民國統計資訊網縣市指標資料庫http://statdb.dgbas.gov.tw/pxweb/Dialog/statfile9.asp
李允傑、孫克難、李顯峰與林博文，2007，政府財務與預算，台北：五南圖書。
李建強、李起銓與陳怡君，2012，「財政赤字與財政支出關係的檢驗–Buchanan-Wagner假說成立嗎？」，應用經濟論叢，91：117-153。
何宗武，2011，Eviews高手–財經計量應用手冊，台北：鼎茂圖書。
徐仁輝，2014，公共財務管理，台北：智勝文化。
徐偉初，1984，「Wagner法則及貝克假設之實證檢定：台灣地區公共支出水準成長趨勢研究」，國立政治大學學報，50：205-224。
徐仁輝與鄭敏惠，2011，「新六都時代地方財政的挑戰與展望」，研考雙月刊，35：57-70。
孫克難，1997，「台灣地區政府支出成長之政經因素分析」，財稅研究，29：1-20。
陳仕偉與陳韻婷，2011，「OECD國家財政支出與經濟成長之間的因果關係–Wagner法則的驗證」，台灣銀行季刊，62：138-162。
財政部財政統計月報http://www.mof.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeid=285&pid=57474
財政部財政統計資料庫查詢http://web02.mof.gov.tw/njswww/WebProxy.aspx?sys=100&funid=defjspf2
康學軍與侯榮華，2001，中國財政支出效益，北京：中國計劃出版社。
張李淑容，1996，「台灣地區公共支出水準成長之研究–Wagner法則與貝克假說之實證檢定」，台中商專學報，28：333-370。
單珮玲與陳雅惠，2015，「政策工具與地方公共支出–台灣地方政府的實證研究」，財稅研究，44：28-55。
楊少強，2014，「首度揭開財政黑洞4成縣市正失去機能」，商業周刊，1379：118-126。
鐘惠民、周賓凰與孫而音，2011，財務計量Eviews的運用，台北：新陸書局。
二、英文部分
Ahsan, S. M., Kwan, C. C., and Sahni, B. S., 1996,“Cointegration and Wagner’s Hypothesis: Time Series Evidence for Canada, ”Applied Economics, 28:1055-1058.
Ansari,M.I.,Gordon,D.V. and Akuamoah,C.A.,1997,“Kenynes versus Wagner:Public expenditure ans national income for three African countries,”Applied Economics,29:543-550.
Brernan , G. and J. M. Buchanan.,1980,The Power to Tax : Analytical Foundations of a Fiscal Constitution, Cambridge：Cambridge University Press .
Courakis,A.S.,Moura-Roque,F. and Tridimas,G.,1993,“Public expenditure growth in Greece and Portugal:Wagner’s law and beyond,”Applied Economics,25:125-134.
Chang, T.,2002,“An econometric test of Wagner’s law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques,”Applied Economics , 34:1157-1169.
Chow, Y. F., J. A. Cotsomitis and A. C. C. Kwan,2002,“Multivariate cointegration and causality tests of Wagner’s hypothesis evidence from the UK,”Applied Economics , 34:1671-1677.
Fiva,J.H.,2006, “New Evidence on the effect of Fiscal Decentralization on the Size and Composition of Government Spending,” FinanzArchiv,62:250-280.
Grossman,P.J. ,1989,“Fiscal decentralization and Government Size:An extension,”Public choice，62:63-69.
Islam, A. M.,2001,“Wagner’s law revisited：cointegration and exogeneity test for the USA,”Applied Economics Letters, 8:509-515.
Jin,J. and Zou,H. 2002,“How does fiscal decentralization affect aggregate,national and subnational government size? ”Journal of Urban Economics,52:270-293
Legrenzi, G.,2002,“The role of omitted variables in identifying a long-run equilibrium relationship for the Italian government growth,”International Tax and Public Finance, 9:435-449.
Marlow, M. L. ,1988,“ Fiscal decentralization and government size ,”Public Choice,3:259-269
Oates,W.E.,1985,“Searching for Leviathan:An empirical analysis,”American Economic Review,79:578-583.
Rodden,J.R.,2003, “Leviathan : Fiscal Federalism and the Growth of Government,”International Organization，57:695-729.
Verma,S. and Arora, R.,2010,“Does the Indian Economy Support Wagner's Law? An Econometric Analysis,”Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics , 3 :77-91
Tang, C. F., 2008,“Wagner’s law Versus Keynesian Hypothesis :New Evidence from Recursive Regression-Based Causality Approaches,”ICFAI Journal of Public Finance, 6 : 29-38.
Wahab, M.,2004,“ Economic growth and government expenditure: Evidence from a new test specification,”Applied Economics,36: 2125-2135.
Wu, A. M. and Lin, M. ,2012,“Determinants of government size : Evidence from China,”Public Choice,151:255-270.
Yousefi, M. and Abizadeh, S.,1998,“An empirical analysis of South Korea’s economic development and public expenditure growth,” Journal of Socio-Economic, 27: 687-700.