近年來，我國政府致力於行銷及輔導各地的商圈，好像設立商圈真的能促進當地發展，對當地店家帶來正面的影響。另一方面，人潮聚集的商圈內，餐飲店一定不可少，對餐飲業的管理者來說，可能會把地點是否位於商圈作為店家選址的重要考量因素。但把店開在商圈內真的會比較好嗎？綜合以上所述，本研究以餐飲業為例，探討店家位於商圈內對店家存活率是否有正面影響。
本研究以2006年9月至2016年10月經濟部商業登記資料中的台南市餐飲店為樣本，以及台南市的商圈資料，運用存活分析的方法進行分析。研究結果發現，商圈設立前，餐飲店位於商圈內對其存活率並沒有顯著的幫助；而在商圈設立後，餐飲店位於商圈內對其存活率有顯著的正面影響。
不過，有趣的發現是，政府設立商圈對店家存活率有正面的影響，其實是因為政府設立商圈時，會選擇當地店家「店齡」較高，也就是「老店」較多的區域。換言之，其實政府設立商圈並不是真的對當地店家有幫助，而是因為政府界定的商圈範圍內，有非常多本來就不容易倒閉、營運無虞之店家。此結果反映了過去政府的商圈政策是屬於錦上添花而非雪中送炭的政策，政府把資源用來輔導、行銷這些營運無虞的老店商圈，結果只是讓這些店家好再更好，真正需要輔導與資源投入的店家反而沒有得到幫助。

In recent years, the government is committed to establish and promote commercial districts. Additionally, there are many demands of eat and drink in commercial districts, should managers of restaurants and beverage shops consider commercial districts established by the government as a primary selection of store location? Can shops located in commercial districts established by the government be better? Therefore, this study will use survival analysis method for analysis to discuss if restaurants and beverage shops located in commercial districts established by the government have better chance to survival. Our results indicate that shops located in the commercial districts do not have more survival rate before the commercial districts been established by the government; But after the commercial districts have been established by the government, shops located in the commercial districts have more survival rate. However, the interesting finding is that the true reason is that the government always choose the areas have more "old shop". In other words, the establishment of commercial districts is not really helpful to the local shops, because there are always many shops that are operated well and not easy to collapse in the areas selected by the government.

誌　謝 i
摘　要 ii
Abstract iii
表次 v
圖次 vi
1.緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 2
1.2研究問題 10
2.文獻回顧 11
2.1商圈的探討 11
2.2餐飲業的存活分析 13
3.研究方法 17
3.1資料來源與處理 17
3.2分析工具 30
4.研究結果 35
4.1樣本存活概況及敘述統計 35
4.2基本分析結果 37
4.3進階分析結果 42
5.結論與建議 45
5.1研究結論 45
5.2研究建議與未來方向 47
參考文獻 49

1. 中文文獻
周華泰, & 杜富燕. (1997). 零售管理. 公平交易季刊第五卷第四期: 頁, 147-148.
林建甫. (2008). 存活分析. 雙葉書廊.
胡政源. (2008). 現代零售管理新論. 新文京開發.
郭中慶. (1993). 臺灣會計師事務所之組織型態:獨資、合夥及內部升遷之實證分析. 逢甲大學經濟研究所碩士論文.
陳婉琦. (2012). 商圈輔導關鍵成功因素之研究-以臺北市商圈為例. 臺北大學公共行政暨政策學系學位論文, 1-80.
曾光華. (2006). 行銷學: 探索原理與體驗實務. 前程文化.
黃鵬達. (2011). 選址作業模式之研究-以連鎖早餐店為例. 臺北大學企業管理學系學位論文, 1-70.
蕭立夫. (2002). 商圈休閒活動需求之研究-以日月潭形象商圈為例. 國立台北科技大學商業自動化與管理研究所, 台北.
謝賢進. (2012). 形象商圈經營之關鍵成功因素--以基隆廟口形象商圈為例.
2. 英文文獻
Carroll, G. R., & Hannan, M. T. (1989). Density delay in the evolution of organizational populations: A model and five empirical tests. Administrative Science Quarterly, 411-430.
Carroll, G. R., & Hannan, M. T. (1989). Density dependence in the evolution of populations of newspaper organizations. American Sociological Review, 524-541.
Edmunds, S. W. (1979). Differing perceptions of small business problems. American Journal of Small Business, 3(4), 1-14.
Hannan, M. T., & Freeman, J. (1977). The population ecology of organizations. American journal of sociology, 82(5), 929-964.
Kalnins, A., & Mayer, K. J. (2004). Franchising, ownership, and experience: A study of pizza restaurant survival. Management Science, 50(12), 1716-1728.
Mason, J. B, Mayer, M. L., & Ezell, H. F. (1988). Buyer Behavior Section. Retailing (3rd ed.), Plano, TX: Business Publications Inc.
O’Neill, H. M., & Duker, J. (1986). Survival and failure in small business. Journal of Small Business Management, 24(1), 30-37.
Park, K., & Khan, M. A. (2006). An exploratory study to identify the site selection factors for US franchise restaurants. Journal of Foodservice Business Research, 8(1), 97-114.
Parsa, H. G., Gregory, A., & Terry, M. (2011). Why do restaurants fail? Part III: An analysis of macro and micro factors.
Parsa, H. G., Self, J. T., Njite, D., & King, T. (2005). Why restaurants fail. Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 46(3), 304-322.
Parsa, H. G., Self, J., Sydnor-Busso, S., & Yoon, H. J. (2011). Why restaurants fail? Part II-The impact of affiliation, location, and size on restaurant failures: Results from a survival analysis. Journal of Foodservice Business Research, 14(4), 360-379.
Parsa, H. G., van der Rest, J. P. I., Smith, S. R., Parsa, R. A., & Bujisic, M. (2015). Why restaurants fail? Part IV: The relationship between restaurant failures and demographic factors. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 56(1), 80-90.
Powers, T. (1997). Chapters 1–3. Marketing Hospitality (2nd ed.). New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Rumelt, R. P. (1991). How much does industry matter?. Strategic management journal, 12(3), 167-185.
Watson, J., & Everett, J. E. (1996). Do small businesses have high failure rates?. Journal of small business management, 34(4), 45.
Weitzel, W., & Jonsson, E. (1989). Decline in organizations: A literature integration and extension. Administrative Science Quarterly, 91-109.
3. 相關網站
102年度商業發展政策施政計畫(2013). Website: http://gcis.nat.gov.tw/main/subclassAction.do?method=getFile&pk=599
Course Hero. (2009, May). Discrete Time Duration Models : BTSCS. Matt Golder. Retrieved July 1, 2014 from the World Wide Web: http://www.coursehero.com/file/1958545/btscs
台中市經濟發展局(2017). Website:http://www.economic.taichung.gov.tw
台北市特色生活商圈發展自治條例草案說明.Website:
http://www.napcu.org.tw/album/task/5643141bef3f7.pdf
台南市商圈輔導辦法Website: http://law01.tainan.gov.tw/glrsnewsout/NewsContent.aspx?id=1773
台南市經濟發展局(2017). Website:http://www.tainan.gov.tw/economic
行政院主計處普查統計(2017). Website: http://www.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=543&CtUnit=379&BaseDSD=7&mp=4
行政院主計處薪資與生產力統計年報(2017). Website: https://www.dgbas.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=3103&CtUnit=366&BaseDSD=7&mp=1
美國行銷學會AMA. Website:https://www.ama.org/Pages/default.aspx
財團法人國家政策研究基金會(2015). 國政研究報告─點亮商圈品牌力，打造文創新風潮. Website: http://www.npf.org.tw/2/15604

高雄市經濟發展局(2017).Website: http://edbkcg.kcg.gov.tw/style/front001/bexfront.php
高雄市商店街區管理輔導自治條例.Website:
http://www.rootlaw.com.tw/LawArticle.aspx?LawID=B180050000008800-1011222
新北市經濟發展局(2017). Website: http://www.economic.ntpc.gov.tw/main/index.aspx
經濟部(2013). 創新·樂活電子報(NO.13). Website: https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/populace/news/EpaperContent.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=5498
經濟部(2015). 商圈競爭力提升四年計畫. Website: https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/populace/news/wHandEpaper_File.ashx?ec_id=13
經濟部商業司(2007). 創新台灣品牌四年計畫(審定本).Website: http://ciis.cdri.org.tw/dl_file.aspx?unit=4&sid=0E272520579725494200
經濟部商業司(2013). 商業服務業發展研究能量建置計畫期末報告. Website: http://ciis.cdri.org.tw/files/attachment/0E272520579725494200/創新能量擦亮商圈.pdf
經濟部統計處(2016). Website: http://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/content/ContentLink.aspx?menu_id=9425 http://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/content/ContentLink.aspx?menu_id=9431