Keynes (1936)首先提出了消費與國民所得之間的關係，然而Kuznets以美國七十年間的實證研究卻不支持凱氏所提的消費函數形式，所以往後有了種種解釋消費與所得間長期下成比例關係的總體經濟理論。
本文依循Campbell (1987)所發展出來的檢定方法，以臺灣的資料檢定Friedman所提的恆常所得假說。由於傳統的共整合檢定，對於誤差項的要求皆必須要是線性且同質變異，這樣的假設似乎太過強烈而可能不符實際資料，所以本文採用了Harris, McCabe, and Leybourne (2002)三人所提出之隨機共整合，進一步探究消費與國民所得之間的關係，並與傳統的、非隨機的Johansen (1991)最大概似法相比較，結果發現，兩種方法下所做的恆常所得假說檢定皆不能成立。

Keynes (1936) first brought up the relationship between consumption and national income, but Kuznets’observation about the U.S. data was not supported by the Keynes consumption function form. So there are many macroeconomic theories trying to explain the phenomenon observed by Kuznets.
This paper uses the way developed by Campbell (1987) to test the permanent income hypothesis suggested by Friedman with Taiwan data. In addition, this paper uses the stochastic cointegration developed by Harris, McCabe, and Leybourne (2002) to re-examine the relationship between consum-ption and national income because the traditional non-stochastic cointegration assumes that the error term is linear and homogeneous, which may be too strong to fit the real world. Besides, this paper compares the nonstochastic cointegration with the stochastic cointegration, and the evidence founded is that the permanent income hypothesis is not supported by Taiwan data with these two methods.

目錄
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機
第二節 本文架構
第二章 文獻回顧
第三章 研究方法
第一節 恆常所得假說檢定
第二節 單根檢定
一、 Dickey-Fuller 單根檢定(DF單根檢定)
二、 Augmented Dickey-Fuller 單根檢定(ADF單根檢定)
三、 Phillips-Perron 單根檢定(PP單根檢定)
四、 Ng-Perron 單根檢定(N-P單根檢定)
第三節 共整合方法介紹
一、 Engle-Granger二階段估計法
二、 Johansen最大概似估計法
三、 隨機共整合
第四章 實證結果
第一節 單根檢定
第二節 Johansen共整合檢定
第三節 依Johansen共整合結果檢定恆常所得假說
第四節 隨機共整合檢定
第五節 依隨機共整合結果檢定恆常所得假說
第五章 結論
附錄A 資料處理
附錄B PIH非正式檢定
附錄C 理論儲蓄與實際儲蓄的圖形比較
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