Responsive image
博碩士論文 etd-0716108-200854 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0716108-200854
論文名稱
Title
小型開放經濟的貨幣政策與信念驅動的景氣波動
Monetary Policy and Belief-driven Fluctuation in a Small Open Economy
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
72
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2008-05-27
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2008-07-16
關鍵字
Keywords
通貨膨脹率指標、小型開放經濟、內生成長、貨幣進入生產函數、信念驅動的景氣波動、名目貨幣供給成長率指標、太陽黑子說、均衡不確定性
money in the production function, small open economy, belief-driven fluctuation, endogenous growth, indeterminacy, money growth rate targeting, inflation targeting, sunspots
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5787 次,被下載 2404
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5787 times, has been downloaded 2404 times.
中文摘要
本文利用貨幣直接進入生產函數的方式,將貨幣引進經濟體系,藉以建構一個勞動供給內生化的小型開放貨幣內生成長模型。據此,探討在不同的貨幣政策下「意念驅動的景氣波動」是否存在,分析該現象如何進行運作,並且討論貨幣政策的有效性。我們發現當央行以名目貨幣成長率指標作為貨幣政策時,若經濟體系的規模報酬遞增程度較小,則民眾根據非經濟基本面所形成的信念將足以撼動經濟體系,促使景氣波動;反之,若規模報酬遞增程度較大,則民眾根據非經濟基本面所形成的信念將無力驅動景氣波動,這樣的結果與Benhabib and Farmer (1994)恰巧相反,卻進一步符合實證上對於規模報酬遞增程度較小的要求。然而,在規模報酬遞增程度較大的情況下,央行增加名目貨幣供給成長率將短暫的提升本國短期產出成長率,但是長期經濟體系仍具有均衡成長路徑上的貨幣超中立性特質。此外,當央行以通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時,不論規模報酬遞增程度大小,民眾根據非經濟基本面所形成的信念皆無力驅動景氣波動,而且央行的貨幣政策無法對長、短期產出成長率產生任何影響。準此,我們發現通貨膨脹率指標較名目貨幣成長率指標的貨幣政策能夠有效的避免景氣的大幅波動,但是卻同時失去貨幣政策影響短期產出成長率的有效性。
Abstract
This thesis analyzes the connection between monetary policies and belief-driven fluctuation, and discusses the effects of monetary policies in a small open economy. We construct an endogenous growth model that introduces the role of money into the production function and allows elastic labor supply. In departing from the findings proposed by Benhabib and Farmer (1994), we find that belief-driven fluctuation can be easily encouraged, as long as there is lower increasing return to scale under money growth rate targeting. However, if there is a higher level of increasing return to scale, the increase of the growth rate of nominal money supply will only increase the economic growth rate temporarily, and money is super-neutral in the long run. More importantly, we show that under inflation rate targeting, the central bank will eliminate possibilities of belief-driven fluctuation in the small open economy, but lose the efficacy of monetary policy on the short-term economic growth at the same time.
目次 Table of Contents
目錄
第一章 緒論 ……………………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機 …………………………………………………… 1
第二節 文獻回顧 …………………………………………………… 3
第三節 本文架構 …………………………………………………… 6

第二章 基本模型 ………………………………………………………… 7
第一節 代表性個人 ………………………………………………… 7
第二節 政府與中央銀行 …………………………………………… 10
第三節 總體模型 …………………………………………………… 10

第三章 名目貨幣供給成長率指標 ……………………………………… 14
第一節 動態與均衡 ………………………………………………… 14
第二節 均衡不確定性與景氣波動 ………………………………… 23
第三節 均衡確定性與預料到的貨幣政策 ………………………… 33

第四章 通貨膨漲率指標 ………………………………………………… 50
第一節 動態與均衡 ………………………………………………… 50
第二節 均衡確定性 ………………………………………………… 54
第三節 貨幣政策 …………………………………………………… 55

第五章 結論 ………………………………………………………… 58
附錄 ………………………………………………………………… 59
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………… 62
參考文獻 References
參考文獻
Alina, C. and Stone, M. R. (2006), “Inflation Targeting Regimes,” European Economic Review 50: 1297-1315.
Azariadis, C. (1981), “Self-Fulfilling Prophecies,” Journal of Economic Theory 25: 380-396.
Basu, S. and Fernald, J. G. (1997), “Returns to Scale in US Production: Estimates and Implications,” Journal of Political Economy 105: 249-283.
Benhabib, J. and Farmer, R. E. (1994), “Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns,” Journal of Economic Theory 63: 19-41.
Benhabib, J. and Farmer, R. E. (1996), “Indeterminacy and Sector Specific Externalities,” Journal of Monetary Economics 37: 397-419.
Benhabib, J. and Farmer, R. E. (1999), “Indeterminacy and Sunspots in Macroeconomics,” in Taylor, J. B. and Woodford, M. Editors, Handbook of Macroeconomics 1A: 387–448, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Bernanke, B. S. and Mishkin, F. S. (1997), “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 11: 97-116.
Burnside, C. (1996), “Production Function Regressions, Returns to Scale, and Externalities,” Journal of Monetary Economics 37: 177-201.
Calvo, G. A. (1978), “On Indeterminacy of Interest Rates and Wages with Perfect Foresight,” Journal of Economic Theory 19: 321-337.
Cass, D. and Shell, K. (1983), “Do Sunspots Matter?,” Journal of Political Economy 91: 193-227.
Chang, W. Y. and Lai, C. C. (2000), “Anticipated Inflation in a Monetary Economy with Endogenous Growth,” Economica 67: 399-417.
Chauvet, M. and Guo, J. T. (2003), “Sunspots, Animal Spirits and Economic Fluctuations,” Macroeconomic Dynamics 7: 140-169.
Chin, C. T., Guo, J. T. and Lai, C. C. (2007), “Monetary Policy Rules and Endogenous Growth in an Open Monetary Economy,” Working Papers.
Dornbusch, R. and Frenkel, J. A. (1973), “Inflation and Growth: Alternative Approaches,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 5: 141-156.
Farmer, R. E. and Guo, J. T. (1994), “Real Business Cycles and The Animal Spirits Hypothesis,” Journal of Economic Theory 63: 42-73.
Fischer, S. (1974), “Money and the Production Function,” Economic Inquiry 12: 517-533.
Friedman, M. (1969), The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays. Aldine, Chicago, Ill.

Fukuda, S. (1996), ”Money and Economic Growth with Increasing Returns to Scale,” Discussion Paper No.320, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
Gale, D. (1974), ”Pure Exchange Equilibrium in Dynamic Economic Models,” Journal of Economic Theory 6: 1-36.
Guo, J. T. and Lansing, K. J. (2007), “Maintenance Expenditures and Indeterminacy under Increasing Returns to Scale,” International Journal of Economic Theory 3: 147-158.
Harrison, S. G. (2001), “Indeterminacy in a Model with Sector-Specific Externalities,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 25: 747-764.
Harrison, S. G. (2005), “Do Sunspots Reflect Consumer Confidence? An Empirical Investigation,” Eastern Economic Journal 31: 55-73
Howitt, E. and McAfee, R. P. (1992), “Animal Spirits,” American Economic Review 82: 493-507.
Itaya, J. and Mino, K. (2003), “Inflation, Transactions Costs and Indeterminacy in Monetary Economies with Endogenous Growth,” Economica 70: 451-470.
Itaya, J. and Mino, K. (2004) “Interest Rate Rule and Multiple Equilibria with Endogenous Growth,” Economics Bulletin 6: 1-8.
Kehoe, T. J. and Levine, D. K. (1985), “Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies,” Econometrica 53: 433-453.
Khan, A. H. and Mushtaq, A. (1985), “Real Money Balances in the Production Function of a Developing Country,” The Review of Economics and Statistics 67: 336-340.
Lai, C. C. and Chin, C. T. (2007), “Monetary Rules and Endogenous Growth in an Open Monetary Economy,” Working Papers.
Levhari, D. and Patinkin, D. (1968), “The Role of Money in a Simple Growth Model,” American Economic Review 58: 713-753.
Lucas, R. E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics 22: 3-42.
Marquis, M. H. and Reffett, K. L. (1991), “Real Interest Rates and Endogenous Growth in a Monetary Economy,” Economics Letters 37: 105-109.
Marquis, M. H. and Reffett, K. L. (1995) “The Inflation Tax in a Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth,” Economica 62: 109-21.
Matsusaka, J. and Sbordone, A. (1995), “Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations,” Economic Inquiry 33: 296-318.
Meng, Q. and Velasco, A. (2004), “Market Imperfections and the Instability of Open Economies,” Journal of International Economics 64: 503-519.

Meng, Q. and Yip, C. K. (2004), “Investment, Interest Rate Rules, and Equilibrium Indeterminacy,” Economic Theory 23: 863-878.
Mino, K. and Shibata, A. (1995), “Monetary Policy, Overlapping Generations, and Patterns of Growth,” Economica 62: 179-194.
Mishkin, F. S. (2000), “Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries,” American Economic Review 90: 105-109.
Mishkin, F. S. (2001), “Issues in Inflation Targeting.” In Price Stability and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy, (Bank of Canada: Ottawa, Canada, 2001) 203-222
Moroney, J. R. (1972), “The Current State of Money and Production Theory,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 62: 335-43.
Oh, S. and Waldman, M. (1990), “The Macroeconomic Effects of False Announcements,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105: 1017-1034.
Orphanidesa, A. and Solow, R. M. (1990), “Money, Inflation, and Growth,” In Friedman, B. M. and Hahn, F. H. Editors, Handbook of Monetary Economics 1: 223-61, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Palokangas, T. (1997), “Inflation and Growth in an Open Economy,” Economica 64: 509-518.
Pecorino, P. (1995), “Inflation, Human Capital Accumulation, and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Macroeconomics 17: 533-542.
Perli, R. (1998), “Indeterminacy, Home Production, and the Business Cycle: A Calibrated Analysis,” Journal of Monetary Economics 41: 105-125.
Romer, P. M. (1986), “Increasing Returns And Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Political Economy 94: 1002-37.
Shaw, M. F., Lai, C. C. and Chang, W. Y. (2005), “Anticipated Policy and Endogenous Growth in a Small Open Monetary Economy,” Journal of International Money and Finance 24: 719-743.
Shell, K. (1977), “Monnaie et Allocation Intertemporelle,” Seminaire d'Econometrie Roy-Malinvaud, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, Mimeograph (title and abstract in French, text in English).
Short, E. D. (1979), “A New Look at Real Money Balances as a Variable in the Production Function,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11: 326-39.
Sinai, A. and Houston H. S. (1972), “Real Money Balances: An Omitted Variable from the Production Function?,” Review of Economics and Statistics 54: 290-96.
Sinai, A. and Houston H. S. (1989), “Money Balance in Production Function: A Retrospective Look,” Eastern Economic journal 15: 349-363.

Solow, R. M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 70: 65-94.
Van der Ploeg, F. and Alogoskoufis, G. S. (1994), “Money and Endogenous Growth,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 26: 771-791.
Wang, P. and Yip, C. K. (1991), “Real Effects of Money and Welfare Costs of Inflation in an Endogenously Growing Economy with Transactions Costs,” Working papers.
Wang, P. and Yip, C. K. (1992), “Examining the Long-Run Effect of Money on Economic Growth,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 14: 359-369.
Weder, M. (2000), “Animal Spirits, Technology Shocks and the Business Cycle,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 24: 273-295.
Weder, M. (2001), “Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model,” Journal of Economic Theory 98: 339-356.
Wen, Y. (1998), “Capacity Utilization Under Increasing Returns to Scale,” Journal of Economic Theory 81: 7-36.
Woodford, M. (1986), “Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Finance Constrained Economy,” Journal of Economic Theory 40:128-137.
Woodford, M. (1988), “Expectations, Finance and Aggregate Instability,” in Kohn, M. and Tsiang, S. C. Editors, Finance Constraints, Expectations and Macroeconomics 230-261, Oxford University, New York.
Zhang, J. (2000), “Inflation and Growth: Pecuniary Transaction Costs and Qualitative Equivalence,” Journal of Money Credit and Banking 32: 1-12.
電子全文 Fulltext
本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。
論文使用權限 Thesis access permission:校內校外完全公開 unrestricted
開放時間 Available:
校內 Campus: 已公開 available
校外 Off-campus: 已公開 available


紙本論文 Printed copies
紙本論文的公開資訊在102學年度以後相對較為完整。如果需要查詢101學年度以前的紙本論文公開資訊,請聯繫圖資處紙本論文服務櫃台。如有不便之處敬請見諒。
開放時間 available 已公開 available

QR Code