從世界的角度來看，經濟全球化的正面結果是技術與科技的交流更為頻繁，以及讓國際分工更明顯並讓資源發揮最高效用。然而，全球經濟整合、貿易壁壘的逐漸廢除、和資本流動性的提升，在幾個區域中產生了一些關於總體經濟政策的嚴重問題。也就是說這種放任主義（laissez faire）是造成當代世界性經濟停滯和大批失業的主要原因之一。上述問題在開發中國家特別容易發生，由於大部分開發中國家的經濟處於發展階段，許多經濟建設與產業發展都尚未成熟，若貿然開放經濟，在沒有任何有效配套措施的情況下，該區域的經濟發展確實有可能因無法承受強大外部壓力與衝擊而受到阻礙，更嚴重的話，還會導致可怕的金融危機。

西元1964年至1988年期間，巴西實行二十幾年的軍事統治。直到1989年高羅(Fernando Collor de Mello)依新憲法，當選直接民選總統，才恢復文人執政。在實行二十幾年的軍事統治期間，雖然經過歷高度經濟成長階段，然而自西元1974年之後，通貨膨脹開始不斷累積，財政及經常帳赤字也日益嚴重，巴西政府為了解決問題，自西元1980年起，實施限制資本流入的政策，結果不但沒有解決問題，反而讓經濟成長更為遲緩，通貨膨脹問題更為嚴重。所以結束軍事統治後，在民選總統高羅的執政期間，自西元1990年起，決定重返國際資本市場。雖然經濟情況稍微好轉，不過因為開放政策的結果，導致匯率的升值、外部負債累積、以及持續的貿易與經常帳赤字，使得巴西的經濟因為開放政策，再度面臨到外部的壓力與衝擊。西元1994年起，巴西由新總統由卡多索(Fernando Henrique Cardoso)執政，有鑑於過去的經驗，巴西政府不再重新採取封閉政策，反而在西元1999年，正式取消緊盯美元的固定匯率制度，改採浮動匯率制度，從此巴西的匯率交由市場決定。

雖然巴西因為經濟全球化的衝擊，長期間面臨龐大的外部壓力，不過外界對於巴西未來的經濟發展依然十分看好。原因有以下兩點：第一，巴西國內的各項天然資源十分豐富，在未來原物料短缺的情況下，足以扮演資源供應站的角色；第二、巴西人口眾多，高達一億八千萬左右，內需市場龐大吸引世界各國前來從事各類貿易及商業行為。無論從過去的經濟發展或者對於未來的經濟預測，巴西的經濟成長表現皆與開放經濟政策息息相關，換句話說，巴西的進出口以及資本流動主導了巴西的經濟成長表現。是故，在實證分析上，吾人採用Thirlwall（1979）的國際收支平衡條件限制下的經濟成長模型（Balance-of-payments constrained growth rate model,簡稱BPCG model）作為分析巴西經濟成長表現的研究模型。

吾人針對巴西的實際狀況建立修正後的BPCG模型，經過共整合技術，估算出巴西的進出口行為函數式，再算出原始BPCG模型與修正後的BPCG模型。結果指出，修正後BPCG模型所估算出來的經濟成長率比原始BPCG模型所估算出來的經濟成長率更接近巴西實際經濟成長率，表示原始BPCG模型所做的前提假設有些並不符合巴西的實際狀況。例如長期而言，相對購買力平價（comparative purchasing power parity）並不成立；又檢測的結果也顯示出，當進出口面對不同產品或地區的價格時，會對應出不同的價格彈性或替代彈性，所以在巴西的案例中，單一價格與單一彈性的假設並不成立。

總體而言，各BPCG模型所估算出來的經濟成長率的長期波動皆大致與巴西的長期實際經濟成長率波動一致，此結果顯示出，用BPCG模型來分析出口導向型經濟成長（export-led economic growth）確實有效，此研究結果也支持巴西確實是一個出口導向型經濟成長國家。

From the point of view of world, the positive results of the economic globalization are: more frequent scientific and technological exchange, more obvious international division, resource reach supreme utility. But, global economy integration, the abolition of the trade barrier, and improvement of capital mobility, have produced the serious economic problem in several areas. That is to say that this kind of laissez faire causes the international economic growth rate to be slow and large quantities of unemployment. Above-mentioned problems are very apt to happen in developing countries. A lot of economic construction of most developing countries has not been ripe yet .If they open trade and capital inflow rashly, in a situation that there is not any supplementary measure effectively, the economic development of this area is hindered because of being unable to bear the strong external pressure with assault probably .If more serious, it will also cause the terrible financial crisis.

From 1964 to 1988, Brazil implemented 20 several years governance of military affairs. During 20 several years governance of military affairs, Brazil had gone through the high economic growth rate. However, since 1974, the inflation of Brazil began to be accumulating constantly, the finance and account deficit frequently were serious day by day. The Brazilian government, in order to solve the problem, since 1980, limited the capital inflow. This policy made the development in economy slower, and the inflation problem was more serious. During elected president Fernando Collor de Mello was in power, from 1990, Brazilian government determined to return to the international capital market, and then economic became better. The open policy let the exchange rate appreciate, trade that accumulate, and lasting in debt of external and account deficit frequently. Brazil faced external pressure and impact once again. From 1994, Brazil was in power by new president Fernando Henrique Cardoso. In 1999, Brazilian government canceled the fixed exchange rate system of staring at U.S. dollar, and changed to adopt the floating exchange rate system. The exchange rate of Brazil was decided by market from then on.

Brazil faces the huge external pressure for a long time because of the impact of the economic globalization. A lot of countries have an optimistic view of the economic development in the future of Brazil very much. The reasons are: First, natural resources of Brazil are very abundant and enough to supply with the demand of the world; Second, Brazilian population reaches 180 millions, the huge market attracts various countries to be engaged in all kinds of trade and conduct of business. No matter from the past economic development or to the economic forecasting in the future, the economy of Brazil is closely linked with open economic policy. In other words, the imports, exports and capital mobility of Brazil have dominated the development in economy of Brazil. So, I use Balance-of-payments constrained growth rate model (BPCG model) of Thirlwall (1979) to analyze Brazilian economy. I set up adjusted BPCG model according to actual state of Brazil. I use cointegration test and estimate out the Brazilian imports and exports behavior equation, and then calculate primitive BPCG model and adjusted BPCG model.

Pointed out finally, the economic growth rate estimated out from the adjusted BPCG model is closer to Brazil's actual economic growth rate than the economic growth rate estimated out from the primitive BPCG model. This shows that some assumptions of primitive BPCG model do not accord with the real state of Brazil. Such as on long terms, comparative purchasing power parity is not to be hold. Imports and exports will correspond to out different price elasticity or substitution elasticity, if face different products or the price from the different areas. Thus, in the case of Brazil, the assumption of single price and single elasticity is not to be hold.

In general, the long-term economic growth rate estimated out in BPCG model roughly keeps the same with long-term real economic growth rate of Brazil. This result demonstrates that BPCG model is useful for analyzing export-led economic, and the result also supports Brazil to be an export-led economic growth country.

第一章 緒論............................................................................................1
第二章 文獻回顧....................................................................................3
第一節 BPCG模型理論回顧...............................................................3
第二節 巴西經貿發展回顧..................................................................6
第三章 模型建構與研究方法..............................................................11
第一節 國際收支平衡條件之經濟成長模型.........................................11
第二節 實證研究方法........................................................................20
第四章 實證結果分析..........................................................................24
第一節 資料與變數的處理.................................................................24
第二節 單根檢定...............................................................................25
第三節 Johansen共整合檢定..............................................................29
第五章 結論..........................................................................................44
第一節 巴西進出口行為之分析..........................................................44
第二節 BPCG模型結果分析..............................................................48
參考文獻.....................................................................................................51

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