海岸地區的資源豐富卻造成了人類的過度使用與開發，導致海岸地區原有自然景觀及沿海資源遭受嚴重的破壞。為避免海岸地區土地不當開發利用繼續蔓延，需就海岸地區土地之特性、利用工程、生態體系、經濟價值、環境保護等面向整合考量，以引導其合理利用，不會危及到海岸地區的永續發展。因此本研究使用整合性海岸地區管理(Integrated Coastal Zone Management, ICZM)的概念整合考量海岸地區管理的各種面向，並利用整合性評估(Integrated Assessment, IA)的概念，以DPSIR的指標架構與生產、生態與生活環境指標為核心，結合使用系統動力學(System Dynamic, SD)與細胞自動機(Cellular Automata, CA)，建構一套海岸地區整合管理的概念性模式。
本研究以彰濱工業區對於週遭海岸地區所造成的影響為例，包括線西鄉、和美鎮與鹿港鎮，模擬從民國80年至110年之間，該區域的三生指標與其它重要變數的變化型態，並觀察土地使用變遷的中長期趨勢。透過設定三類方案，包括單一策略、多重策略以及逐步調整策略的方案進行情境分析，而根據研究結果發現，三類方案中以多重策略的方案對於三生指標的表現最好，單一策略則最差。至於逐步調整策略的方案會因在不同時間加入不同的策略而造成不同的結果，因此成效可能比多重策略好，也可能較差，但比單一策略來得好，但此類方案的特點在於可以根據變化趨勢採取不同的策略，以因應層出不窮的新問題。因此本研究所建構的系統可以有效模擬海岸工業區造成週遭地區變化的趨勢，提供決策或規劃人員進行情境分析、政策模擬與風險評估，以利進行海岸管理更周延的規劃與建議，落實整合性海岸地區管理的概念，建立海岸地區永續發展之藍圖。

The overuse of the coastal resources and overdevelopment on coastal areas led to the result of serious destruction of nature landscape and coastal resources due to the abundance of coastal resources. To avoid the improper development on the coastal areas, it is necessary to have an integrated consideration over the engineering, ecosystem, economics, environmental protection and sustainable development based on the character of coastal land. Therefore, the main conception of this study is to apply the concept of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) to take all aspects which might affect the coastal management into integrated consideration, and to accomplish the concept of ICZM by Integrated Assessment (IA). Furthermore, the study constructed a indicator structure of assess coastal management by Driving forces–Pressures–States–Impacts–Responses (DPSIR), which takes the production, ecosystem and living environment as three core assessment indicators. Finally, the conceptual model of integrated coastal management is constructed with the help of System Dynamic (SD) and Cellular Automata (CA).
This study simulates the influence of the existence of Chang Hua Coastal Industrial Park on the nearby areas such as Hsienhsi county, Hemei town and Lukang town from 1991 to 2021. The main consideration is on the time-series variation of three core indicators and some critical variables as well as the mid-term to long-term tendency on the land use. Three kinds of actions are set for the scenario analysis, including single strategy, multi strategies and progressively varying strategies. According to the simulation results, the action of multi strategies results in the best performance on three core indicators, and the action of single strategy is the worst on the contrary. On seeing the blooming problems over simulation period, the progressively varying strategies are applied in specific time points, and result in better or worse performances depending on different restrictions and resources. The conceptual model constructed in this research is adaptive to simulate the varying tendency on the nearby areas due to the existence of coastal industrial park, and is an efficient and effective assessing measure for the decision persons or the paper worker to understand the influences on different scenarios or strategies applied. Thus better formulations or suggestions over destination areas will be made to help fulfill the concept of ICZM.

第一章 前言 1-1
1.1 研究動機 1-1
1.2 研究目的 1-2
1.3 研究流程 1-3
1.4 研究範圍 1-5
第二章 文獻回顧 2-1
2.1 整合性海岸地區管理 2-1
2.2 土地使用變遷模式 2-24
2.2 整合性評估的相關應用 2-35
第三章 研究方法 3-1
3.1 整合性評估 3-1
3.2 系統動力學 3-19
3.3 細胞自動機 3-35
第四章 系統架構與模式建置 4-1
4.1 系統架構 4-1
4.2 影響因子的選擇 4-7
4.3 系統動力模式的建置 4-23
4.4 中層微觀空間尺度與底層資料的建置 4-45
4.5 模式驗證 4-57

第五章 情境模擬與策略分析 5-1
5.1 情境模擬 5-1
5.2 策略分析 5-5
第六章 結論與建議 6-1
6.1 結論 6-1
6.2 建議 6-5
參考文獻 7-1

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