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論文名稱 Title |
中國21世紀東南亞海上絲路的潛在風險 The Potential Risks of China's 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in Southeast Asia |
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系所名稱 Department |
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畢業學年期 Year, semester |
語文別 Language |
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學位類別 Degree |
頁數 Number of pages |
147 |
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研究生 Author |
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指導教授 Advisor |
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召集委員 Convenor |
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口試委員 Advisory Committee |
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口試日期 Date of Exam |
2019-06-24 |
繳交日期 Date of Submission |
2019-08-21 |
關鍵字 Keywords |
中國、東盟、一帶一路 (OBOR)、潛在風險、MSRI、未來關係 MSRI, OBOR, China, Potential Risk, ASEAN, Future Relationship |
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統計 Statistics |
本論文已被瀏覽 5800 次,被下載 252 次 The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5800 times, has been downloaded 252 times. |
中文摘要 |
“一帶一路”(OBOR)倡議代表中國意欲在國際舞台上提升其形象的雄心。作為一帶一部分,海上絲綢之路倡議(MSRI)需要東南亞國家的參與,以透過馬六甲海峽將中國海上船隻與世界其他地區進行連接。本研究將通過對書籍,學術期刊文章,官方文件,雜誌和網站的二手數據進行質化分析。 研究目標是找出中國海上絲路在東南亞的潛在風險及其如何影響兩個實體未來的關係,最後認定哪些國家有可能或不太可能支持“一帶一路”倡議,特別是在加入21世紀海上絲綢之路的倡議上。 |
Abstract |
One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is representing China’s ambitious goal to raise its profile in the international arena. Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) as a part of OBOR, require the participation of Southeast Asian countries in order to connect the Chinese maritime vessel with the rest of the world through the Strait of Malacca. This research will utilize the qualitative methods by applying document analysis on secondary data from the books, academic journal articles, official documents, magazines, and websites. The research objectives are to identify the potential risk of China’s MSRI in Southeast Asia and to analyze how it could affect the future relationship of both entities, and lastly to determine which countries likely and unlikely to support the One Belt One Road initiative, particularly on joining 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative. |
目次 Table of Contents |
Thesis Validation Letter .................................................................................................. i Thesis Authorization Letter ............................................................................................ ii Acknowledgement .......................................................................................................... iii 摘要 ............................................................................................................................... iv Abstract ........................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ vi Table of Maps ................................................................................................................. viii Table of Tables and Charts .............................................................................................. ix Abbreviation ................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Literature Review ..................................................................................... 2 1.2 Thesis Questions ....................................................................................... 17 1.3 Thesis Statement ....................................................................................... 17 1.4 Theoretical framework ............................................................................. 19 1.5 Methodology ............................................................................................ 26 1.6 Research Coverages ................................................................................. 28 Chapter 2 China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative Overview ..................... 29 2.1 China’s One Belt One Road Initiative....................................................... 29 2.2 Ancient Maritime Silk Road vs 21st Century Maritime Silk Road ........... 40 2.3 The Importance of Maritime in Southeast Asia ....................................... 47 2.4 Retrospect of the Territorial Dispute in the South China Sea .................. 49 Chapter 3 China’s Regionalism and Multilateralism: ASEAN Perspective ................... 58 3.1 Retrospect of China and ASEAN relations .............................................. 58 3.2 China’s role in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) ............................... 73 Chapter 4 Opportunities and Challenges toward the Initiative ...................................... 81 4.1 Opportunities ............................................................................................ 81 4.1.1 Economic and Maritime Cooperation Enhancement .................... 81 4.1.2 The Improvement of China-Southeast Asia Basic Connectivity .. 83 vii 4.1.3 Southeast Asian Countries Infrastructure Development .............. 84 4.1.4 Facilitation of ASEAN Economic Community ............................ 85 4.1.5 The Upgrade Version of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area ............ 86 4.1.6 Lessen the Tension of South China Sea Territorial Disputes ........ 87 4.2 Challenges ................................................................................................ 88 4.2.1 Mutual Strategic Distrust between China-Southeast Asian Countries ...................................................................................... 89 4.2.2 The doubt on China True Intention behind the Project ................. 90 4.2.3 Trade barrier and Restriction in Various Countries ...................... 91 4.2.4 Everchanging Domestic Politics ................................................... 92 4.2.5 Non-Traditional Security Issue .................................................... 94 4.2.6 Geopolitical Competition .............................................................. 95 4.3 An analysis on the Participant of the Maritime Silk Road Initiative ......... 97 Chapter 5 Potential Risks and Future Development .......................................................125 5.1 Economic Overdependence ......................................................................125 5.2 Violation against National Sovereignty ...................................................131 5.3 Trade War and Economic Crisis ..............................................................136 5.4 A Lack of Funding and Investment ..........................................................144 5.5 Non-Traditional Security Issues ...............................................................148 Chapter 6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................151 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................155 Books ...............................................................................................................155 Journal Articles ................................................................................................156 Master Thesis ...................................................................................................160 Conference Papers ...........................................................................................160 Government Press Release ...............................................................................161 Reports ..............................................................................................................163 Magazines ........................................................................................................164 Websites ...........................................................................................................165 |
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