摘要
隨著行動通訊和網際網路兩大通訊領域的快速發展，再加上行動電子商務方
面與寬頻多媒體逐步展現其市場潛力，第三代行動通信(3G)正是結合這四項市場
於一身的明日之星通訊產業。
3G 是在延伸既有第二代行動電話(2G)到網際網路，到目前為止只有日本的
i-Mode 有成效，行動電子商務也只在起步嚐試。行動多媒體則還僅停在理想的
階段， 3G 並非如2G，一推出就是爆發性成長，而是充滿變數，整個3G 的市
場到目前為止叫好不叫座。
本文針對這種高度不確定性的市場，打破傳統以預測為研究重點的方式，改
以不確定性市場競爭策略(Strategy Uncertainty)為理論基礎，擬定市場經營策略，
並且引用發現導向規劃(Discovery Driver Planning)，進行風險管控，使龐大的巨
額投資，在高度不確定性市場環境下，即可搶市場之機先，又可在最低風險下，
開發市場。

Abstract
With the tremendous growing of mobile communication and internet market in
the 90s decade, electronic commence (EC) and broadband multimedia also begin to
demonstrate their market potential in next few years. We can almost be sure that a
combination of these markets equals success. The 3G system, created to meet the
requirements mentioned above, undoubtedly to be the star of future.
Basically, the 3G system is an extension of the 2G system. There is no question
that, to date, Japan has been the mobile Internet success story with its legendary
i-mode service. But in much of the world, mobile internet market has generally not
materialized quite as quick as anticipated, due to a number of factors. Mobile EC and
multimedia markets are facing the same situation. It reveals that 3G market, unlike the
explosively growing 2G market, will be full of uncertainty.
This thesis focuses on the uncertain 3G market. Base on the theory of
“Strategy under Uncertainty” , we will provide some competition strategies for
telecom operators. We also provide a risk–analysis model, with the theory of ”
Discovery Driver Planning”, for the operator to evaluate the high risk in such an
uncertain market.

目錄
致謝詞...................................................................................................................ii
論文提要............................................................................................................. iii
摘要.......................................................................................................................iv
Abstract.................................................................................................................. v
1. 緒論.....................................................................................................................1
1.1 研究背景與動機................................................................................................... 1
1.2 研究目的............................................................................................................... 2
1.3 研究對象和範圍................................................................................................... 4
1.4 研究流程與論文架構........................................................................................... 5
2. 文獻回顧與探討..............................................................................................7
2.1 行動通訊技術演進概述....................................................................................... 7
2.1.1 類比式第一代行動通訊系統.....................................................................................7
2.1.2 第二代數位行動通訊系統.........................................................................................8
2.1.3 行動數據需求的成長與服務提供...........................................................................10
2.2 第三代行動通訊系統......................................................................................... 12
2.3 競爭理論............................................................................................................. 15
2.4 行動通訊服務產業分析..................................................................................... 17
2.5 策略的制定......................................................................................................... 21
2.6 擾亂式科技：掌握未來市場走向..................................................................... 23
2.7 發現導向規劃..................................................................................................... 24
vi
3. 市場策略擬定流程..........................................................................................27
3.1 全球各大市場發展現況................................................................................... 29
3.1.1 歐洲.........................................................................................................................29
3.1.2 北美.........................................................................................................................30
3.1.3 日本...........................................................................................................................30
3.1.4 亞太地區...................................................................................................................34
3.2 市場發展的展望................................................................................................. 35
3.2.1 市場發展的前景........................................................................................................36
3.3 不確定性環境下的市場分析........................................................................... 40
3.3.1 3G 系統什麼時候能開始營運?..............................................................................42
3.3.2 那種技術是3G 市場的領導者？ .........................................................................42
3.3.3 2.5G vs. 3G..............................................................................................................43
3.3.4 手機vs. 筆記型電腦or PDA ..............................................................................44
3.3.5 政府法令與營運執照.............................................................................................45
3.3.6 消費者對行動多媒體加值服務接受的程度.........................................................46
3.4 不確定性因素的性質與程度(等級) ................................................................... 48
3.4.1 3G 市場的不確定性等級確認...............................................................................48
3.5 3G 市場情境分析................................................................................................ 50
3.5.1 3G 情境的建構過程方塊圖...................................................................................50
3.6 策略擬定............................................................................................................. 64
3.6.1 策略的構思...............................................................................................................64
3.6.2 策略的擬定...............................................................................................................69
4. 策略評估與應用............................................................................................72
4.1 策略評估............................................................................................................. 73
4.1.1 以i-Mode 為例..........................................................................................................73
4.1.2 以WAP 為例.............................................................................................................75
4.2 策略應用............................................................................................................. 76
4.2.1 投資與建設...............................................................................................................76
4.2.2 風險管理...................................................................................................................78
4.2.3 風險管理模型...........................................................................................................80
5. 結論與建議....................................................................................................82
5.1 結論..................................................................................................................... 82
5.2 建議..................................................................................................................... 83
6. 參考文獻..........................................................................................................86
圖表目錄
表1-1 台灣主要電話業務營運收入比例...........................................................3
表1-2 國內3G 團隊股東及資本額結構對照表................................................5
圖2-1 行動通訊技術演進圖...............................................................................7
圖2-2 全球行動電話用戶數.............................................................................9
圖2-3 全球行動電話2000 年底市場占有率( 依技術別區分) ......................10
圖2-4 3G 系統涵蓋面概念圖.........................................................................13
圖2-5 3G 系統全世界主要國家的頻譜配置圖.............................................15
圖2-6 波五力分析圖..........................................................................................16
圖2-7 七力分析圖.............................................................................................18
圖2-8 Integrated approach to strategy under uncertainty ................................21
圖3-1 市場策略制定流程.................................................................................28
圖3-2 全球行動數據市場預測.........................................................................29
圖3-3 日本NTT DoCoMo I-Mode 服務用戶數成長圖..................................32
圖3-4 日本行動通訊總用戶與行動數據用戶數.............................................33
圖3-5 用戶使用I-mode 服務原因分析...........................................................33
圖3-6 全球行動電話用戶數（依區域別區分）...........................................36
圖3-7 歐洲及北美主要國家行動電話滲透率...............................................37
圖3-8 亞太主要國家行動電話滲透率...........................................................38
圖3-9 世界各主要市場無線通訊成長狀況.....................................................39
ix
圖3-10 全球行動通訊用戶與3G 用戶成長圖................................................40
圖3-11 不同等級不確定環境的情境演變.......................................................41
圖3-12 行動、長途、市話費率趨勢比較.......................................................47
圖3-13 行動、固網數據費率趨勢比較...........................................................47
圖3-14 第三級不確定環境下的決策工具........................................................50
圖3-15 3G 情境的建構過程方塊圖..................................................................51
圖3-16 3G 應用服務涵蓋概念圖.....................................................................52
圖3-17 2G 與3G 行動電話在電力上的需求比較........................................54
圖3-18 行動通訊手機市場預估.......................................................................55
圖3-19 行動通訊Infrastructure 市場預估......................................................55
圖3-20 歐洲UMTS-Forum 對於全球3G 市場成長的預估.......................56
表3-21 美林研究機構對3G 市場報告整理出來的資料................................57
圖3-22 產品生命週期.......................................................................................58
表3-23 3G 應用及市場區隔...........................................................................61
圖3-24 從服務應用看3G 市場情境................................................................62
圖3-25 3G 市場情境演變..................................................................................64
圖4-1 3G 的市場發展障礙................................................................................77
圖4-2 3G 發展建設時程...................................................................................78
圖4-3 風險管理模型.........................................................................................80

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