摘 要
台灣地區因能源蘊藏量有限，約有97%初級能源仰賴進口，工業是台灣經濟發展的動力，而石油又是其主要生產能源，所以國際油價的波動，可能造成我國國內景氣循環的波動。另外台灣的經濟長久以來高度依賴出口帶動經濟成長，所以國際的景氣循環亦可能造成國內景氣循環的波動。又台灣的貿易佔台灣國際收支很大的比例，所以貿易的變動相對會對台灣經濟有所影響。
所以本文針對以上因素作一研究。以小型開放體系之SVAR模型分析，模型所用的變數包含北美洲、歐洲、亞洲三區域之生產工業指數、國際油價、台灣生產工業指數及台灣貿易平衡，藉由這些變數了解台灣產出受其他變數衝擊的結果。我們分二期作分析：1974:01~1984:01和1985:01~2002:04。研究結果台灣景氣循環受自己本身衝擊因素較大；另外亦可知其非因名目變數或實質變數而造成衝擊。台灣雖然能源有限，且依賴進口，但因政府會作油價的管制，所以在本文研究期間得出國際油價對台灣的衝擊是不大的。另外，從研究期間中發現亞洲對台灣的衝擊可能逐漸大於其他地區。

Abstract:
Taiwan has limited resources graphically, so 97% of primary energy source is dependent on import. Industrial sectors are the main sources to Taiwanese economic development since the 1970s, and the oil is the base of the industries, therefore, the fluctuation of world oil price will lead to the fluctuation of domestic business cycles. Besides, Taiwanese economy has highly depended on international trade; therefore the international business cycles also have influence on the domestic business cycles. Furthermore, the international trade accounts for substantial percentage of balance of international payment. Thus, the change in the international trade will also have impact on Taiwanese economy.
This paper investigates the influence of international business cycles to the Taiwanese economy. Using a structural vector-autoregressive model (SVAR model) of a small open economy (OE), our SVAR model includes industry product index (IP) of three regions (Asia, Europe, and North America), world oil price, the Taiwanese industry product index and the Taiwanese trade balance. We try to understand how these factors and their variance decompositions explain Taiwanese business cycles. We chose two periods to do the analysis：1974:01-1984:01 and 1985:01-2002:04. To summarize, Taiwanese business cycles were much more impacted by the factors from itself. Besides, we can also say that the impact is neither from nominal nor from real variables. Domestic shocks will be more important in explaining Taiwanese economy. Taiwan has limited resource and depends on import; however, the government will control the oil price. Therefore, we conclude that the world oil price does not have huge impact on Taiwanese economy during our studying period. Asian shocks maybe have more influence than other regions on Taiwanese economy gradually during our studying period.

Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 4
2. Literature Reviews 8
3. Data and Preliminary Tests 10
3.1 The Unit Root Tests 13
3.2 Co-Integration Rank Test-Three Regions 15
4. An Illustrative Model
4.1 The Identification of Structural VAR-Models 17
4.2 Identification of Estimation Strategy 20
5. Impulse Responses Functions and Variance Decomposition
5.1 Structural Vector-Autoregressive (SVAR) Models Test 23
5.2 Identifies the Impulse Responses of the Variables on Taiwanese Economy 24
5.3 Variance Decomposition of Taiwanese Business Cycles 33
6. Conclusion and Suggestion 37
Appendix A 40
References 41

References
ABEYSINGHE, T.,Lu, D., (2003). China as an economic powerhouse： Implications on its neighbors. China Economic Review, 14, 164-185.
Ambler, S., Cardia, E., Zimmermann, C., International business cycles：What are the facts? Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, 257-276.
Backus, D.K., Crucini, M. J., (2000). Oil prices and the terms of trade. Journal of International Economics, 50, 185-213.
Berument, H., & Zubeyir, K., (2004). The effect of foreign income on economic performance of a small-open economy: evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 11, 483-488.
Burnside, A. C., Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S. T., (1996). Sectoral Solow residuals. European Economic Review, 40, 861-869.
Canova, F., Dellas, H., (1993). Trade interdependence and international business cycle. Journal of International Economics, 34, 23-49.
Chang, K., Filer, L., Ying, Y.H., (2002). A structural decomposition of business cycles in Taiwan. China Economic Review, 13, 53-64.
Choe, J., (2001). An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries, Journal of Asian Economics. 12, 569–586.
Cooley, T. F., Dwyer, M., (1998). Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs. Journal of Econometrics, 83, 57-88.
Crosby, M., (2003). Business cycle correlation in Asia-Pacific. Economics Letters, 80, 35-44.
Daniel, B. C., (1997). International interdependence of national growth rates:
A structural trends analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 40, 73-96.
Ellis, C. J., Thoma, M.A., (1995). The implications for an open economy of partisan political business cycles：Theory and evidence. European Journal of Political Economy, 11, 635-651.
Hamilton, J. D., (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics , 113, 363-398.
Hess, G. D., Shin, K., (1998). International business cycles in the United States. Journal of International Economics, 44, 289-313.
Honda, Y., (2000). Some tests on the effects of inflation targeting in New Zealand, Canada, and the UK. Economics Letters 66, 1-6.
Hsiao, F. T., Hsiao, M. C., Yamashita, A. (2003). The impact of the US economy on the Asia-Pacific region：Does it matter? Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 219-241.
Kose, M. A., Yi , K. M., (2001). International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link? The American Economic Review, 91, 371-375.
Lee, H. H., Huh, H. S.; Harris, D., (2003). The relative impact of the US and Japanese business cycles on the Australian economy. Japan and the World economy, 15, 111-129.
Long, J., Bradford , D., (1999). Introduction to the Symposium on Business Cycles. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13, 19-22.
Moshirian, F., (1998). The Asia-Pacific financial axis：challenges for further financial integration. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 8, 103–112.
Perez de Gracia, F., Cunado, J., (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation：Evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45, 65-83.
Prasad, E. S., (1999). International Trade and the Business Cycle. The Economic Journal, 109, 588-606.
Ravn, M. O., (1997). International business cycles in theory and in practice. Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 255-283.
Selover, D. D., (1999). International Interdependence and Business Cycle
Transmission in ASEAN. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 13, 230–253.
Selover, D. D., (1997). Business cycle transmission between the United States and Japan：A vector error correction approach. Japan and the World Economy, 9, 385-411.
Shin, K., Wang, Y., (2004). Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries. Japan and the World Economy, 16, 213-230.
Song, Z., Chiou, W., Zhu, Z., (2002). Sources of export fluctuations：Empirical evidence from Taiwan and South Korea, 1981-2000. Journal of Asian Economics 13, 105-118.
Stein, S. H., Song, F. M., (2002). Vector autoregression and the dynamic multiplier：a historical review. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, 283-300.
Williamson, S. D., (1996). Real business cycle research comes of age：A review essay. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 161-170.
Yoon, G., (2005). Has the U.S. economy really become less correlated with that of the rest of the world? Economic Modeling, 22, 147-158.
Zha, T., (1999). Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions. Journal of Econometrics, 90, 291-316.