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博碩士論文 etd-0724109-131547 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0724109-131547
論文名稱
Title
東亞國家之區域風險分攤
Regional Risk Sharing for East Asian Countries
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
46
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2009-06-24
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2009-07-24
關鍵字
Keywords
貿易整合、風險分攤、區域實體資本、東亞國家
risk sharing, trade integration, regional physical capital, East Asia
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5656 次,被下載 1748
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5656 times, has been downloaded 1748 times.
中文摘要
本研究首先提出區域實體資本概念對風險分攤的重要性。文中將東亞十國所面臨的風險分成國際資本市場、區域實體資本與國際貿易市場這三種管道來分攤,並使用分解國內生產毛額變異數方法來衡量上述三種風險分攤管道的能力。
實證結果顯示:1.東亞地區區域實體資本對於吸收衝擊能力相當大;2.國際資本市場在風險分攤扮演了非常小的角色,這與Asdrubali, Sørensen and Yosha (1996)及Asdrubali and Kim (2004)在已開發國家所進行的實證結果不同,以上學者都一致指出資本市場在歐美國家是主要分攤風險管道;3.日益整合的國際貿易市場卻會降低風險分攤能力;4.東亞地區不可分散風險比例高達80%,但此現象在亞洲金融風暴後已逐漸遞減,其不可分散風險已經有類似OECD國家僅60%的水準。
本研究也為國際貿易市場會降低風險分攤的原因提出解釋:1.進口商與出口商透過信用約定方式,將商品價格及數量已經透過買賣合約預先決定,所以造成風險無法分攤的情況;2.央行積極的沖銷移入資本使得國貿市場不但降低風險分攤能力,而且會加重風險情形。
Abstract
In this paper, we first proposed the regional physical capital, and the regional physical capital of the importance of risk sharing. The ten countries of East Asia face the risk into international capital markets, regional physical capital, and international trade of these three risk sharing channels, and use of GDP variance decomposition method to measure the three channels risk sharing situation.
The empirical results show that:1.East Asia regional physical capital to absorb the impact of GDP for very large. 2.International capital markets played a very small role. 3.The increasing integration of the international trade market will reduce the risk sharing. 4.The East Asian region can not spread the risks as high as 80%, but this phenomenon after the Asian financial crisis has gradually reduced its risk can not be assessed, there have been similar OECD countries only 60% of the standard.
This study also explains the international trade market will result in reducing the risk of trade of the reasons for risk sharing: 1. Importers and exporters through the credit agreement will be the number of commodity prices and the sale and purchase agreement has been through pre-determined, so risk can not be assessed the situation. 2. Trade flows do not contribute to cross-country consumption smoothing, is that central bank attempt to neutralize the impact of foreign capital inflows on domestic credit market.
目次 Table of Contents
第一章 緒論 - 1 -
第一節 研究動機 - 1 -
第二節 研究目的 - 2 -
第三節 研究架構與流程 - 4 -
第二章 文獻回顧 - 6 -
第一節 各區域風險分攤文獻回顧 - 6 -
第二節 各區域實證文獻比較 - 11 -
第三章 實證研究方法與模型的建立 - 13 -
第一節 追蹤資料單根檢定(PANEL DATA UNIT ROOT TEST) - 13 -
第二節 追蹤資料分析方法(PANEL DATA METHODS) - 16 -
第三節 模型的建立 - 20 -
第四章 實證分析 - 25 -
第一節 資料來源與處理 - 25 -
第二節 實證結果分析 - 25 -
第五章 結論 - 31 -
參考文獻 - 32 -
附錄一 - 36 -
附錄二 - 38 -
參考文獻 References
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