道路交通安全事故在世界各國皆造成莫大傷害與損失，全世界每年約超過一百萬人死於交通事故，且約有一千萬人於交通事故中受傷或死亡，而當中又以開發中國家之事故比率最高。根據美國國道交通安全管理局(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration，簡稱NHTSA)一項初步評估顯示，美國2006年因為酒醉駕駛而導致的死亡人數則上升至14年以來的新高。
Ruthm(1996)與Wilkinson(1987)指出，交通事故死亡是美國所有年齡層的民眾的意外死亡的主要原因。Phelp(1988)發現，1980年代美國因嚴重的車禍事故奪走了五千一百多條人命，而這些車禍事件幾乎有一半以上是由飲酒所造成的。以上現象正顯示酒後駕車的嚴重性與其應探討的必要性。
過去酒後駕車的相關研究，資料的種類為橫斷面資料（cross-section）、時間序列資料（time series）或追蹤資料（panel data）。這些資料傳統的計量經濟研究估計方法有二：第一為普通最小平方法（Ordinary Least Square，OLS）；第二種為最小絕對離差法（Least absolute deviation，LAD），其共同的特色為將資料作全面性的探討，而無法就其致死率高低依各分位數進行討論，因此本文乃應用分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)模型，研究美國各郡2005年間酒後駕車致死率和各項變數之間的相關性。
由本文實證結果可以發現，要有效降低酒後駕車致死率，應該因地制宜，也就是針對不同地區的狀況採取不同的政策措施，在低分量地區，所應採取的方式應為有效減少酗酒者，因此應加強戒酒教育、酒後駕車危害宣導等；在中以及中高分量地區，應採取研擬較嚴格的防治酒駕法令、加強警察臨檢等；在高分量區，則應從小培養守法觀念、法令宣導等方面著手。

The traffic accident all causes the greatest damage and the loss of the world. There are approximate million people to die and about 10 million people to be injured every year of the traffic accident of the world, but middle develops countries have the highest ratio of accident. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration a preliminary appraisal shows that number of death of drunk driving is highest for 14 years of the United States., 2006.
Ruthm(1996) and Wilkinson(1987) indicate that the main reason of all age’s populace is the traffic accident fatality on the United States. Phelp(1988) found that there are 5,100 people death for the serious traffic accident in 1980’s of the United States. Above show drunk driving is serious and necessary of discussion.
In the past, the research about drunk driving, the kinds of data are cross-section、time series and panel data. The tradition econometrics data have two estimate methods：First is the Ordinary Least Square; second is the Least Absolute Deviation. The two way’s common characteristic is comprehensive discussion. Therefore the study draw on Quantile Regression and that is analysis of drunk driving of the United States.
By the research, we can find that in different rats of fatality must be to take the different policy measure to improve the fatality of drunk driving. Not like other research only provide the concise suggestion.

美國酒駕成因分析

目次
第一章 緒論.............................................................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的....................................................................2
第二節 研究架構................................................................................4
第二章 文獻回顧.....................................................................5
第三章 研究方法與模型.......................................................15
第一節 研究流程..............................................................................16
第二節 OLS與QR模型的差異.........................................................17
第三節 概述複迴歸模......................................................................18
第四節 概述QR模.............................................................................20
第四章 研究結果與分析................................................................28
第一節 資料選擇與說明..................................................................28
第二節 資料處理..............................................................................31
第三節 實證分析..............................................................................34
第五章 結論與建議...............................................................42
第一節 結論......................................................................................42
第二節 研究發現與建議..................................................................45

參考文獻..................................................................................................48

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