供應鏈體系中的時間延遲導致訂單資訊被擴大或扭曲的現象稱為「長鞭效應」，如此的資訊失真造成上游存貨的擴大、生產計畫的不穩定，進而使得整體供應鏈必須承擔這些因素所造成的成本增加、效率低落，雖然下游廠商在長邊效應現象中似乎影響，然而，上游所產生的成本增加將導致下游的採購成本提高，單純只考量單一企業效益的自私心態已經無法在這個時代生存。供應鏈協同運作就是針對全鏈利益考量、共存共榮的目標而產生的。
本研究以供應鏈整體觀的角度，探討供應鏈協同運作的運作模式，藉由資訊分享的基礎來探討協同預測對於供應鏈長鞭效應的效益。本研究以我國TFT-LCD產業供應鏈為研究標的，藉由系統動力學的分析建構系統動態模式，係用STELLA模擬軟體進行分析，了解在不同需求情形變化下，對於現況以及應用協同預測模式之供應鏈績效的影響，其結果可以提供我國TFT-LCD產業未來應用協同運作模式的參考依據。

Bullwhip effect is the situation that the order information distortion resulted from time delay and expectation of the demand. Through the order information distortion, the inventory of upstream suppliers raised and fluctuated, thus the operation cost of suppliers increased. Although the down stream customer seems to exempts from such disaster, but the cost increase in the upstream supplier will cause the raising of the purchasing cost of those downstream customers. The raising cost and inefficiency will be the burden of whole supply chain and not single party can exempts such result. Supply chain collaboration is aimed to solve such problems.
This study explode the operations of supply chain collaboration from a integration perspective to understand the value of collaborative forecasting for the supply chain operations. Taiwan TFT-LCD industry will be the platform of this study, base on the platform, system dynamics models will be build up and simulated to analyze the effectiveness of collaborative forecasting model under different demand patterns. The result of this study can be the reference when adopting collaboration in Taiwan TFT-LCD industry.

ABSTRACT III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS V
LIST OF FIGURES VII
LIST OF TABLES X
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1 SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT 7
2.1.1 Definition of Supply Chain 7
2.1.2 Introduction to supply chain management 7
2.1.3 Challenges 11
2.1.4 Overview of SCOR 13
2.1.5 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment 18
2.1.6 Performance Measurement 20
2.2 INDUSTRIAL BACKGROUND 25
2.2.1 Overview of TFT-LCD Industry 25
2.2.2 Introduction to Taiwan TFT-LCD Industry 28
2.2.3 Issues and Challenges 32
2.3 Vertical Integration 33
2.3.2 The Benefit and Motivation of Vertical Integration 34
2.3.3 The Risk and Cost of Vertical Integration 36
2.3.4 The Type of vertical integration 37
2.4 VERTICAL PARTITION 39
2.4.1 Definition of Vertical Partition 39
2.4.2 The Benefit and Risk of Vertical Partition 40
2.4.3 Vertical Partition in Taiwan 41
2.4 SYSTEM DYNAMICS 42
2.4.1 Definitions of System Dynamics 42
2.4.2 Fundamentals of System Dynamics 42
2.4.3 System Dynamics Models 43
2.4 FORECAST 44
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN 46
3.1 FRAMEWORK OF ASSESSING COLLABORATIVE FORECASTIN MODEL FOR TFT-LCD INDUSTRY 46
3.2.1 TFT-LCD SCM operations 47
3.2.2 Problems encounters in present scm operations 51
3.3 COLLABORATIVE PLANNING, FORECASTING AND REPLENISHMENT 54
3.4 COLLABORATIVE AND COORDINATIVE UNIT 59
3.5 SYSTEM DYNAMICS IMPLEMENTATION PROCEDURES 64
3.6 BRIEF OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS 66
3.7 SUPPLY CHAIN DYNAMICS 71
3.7.1 Bullwhip Effect 71
3.7.2 The Beer Game 72
3.7.3 Supply Chain Models with system dynamics 74
CHAPTER FOUR CASE ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION 76
4.1 INTRODUCTION OF H COMPANY 76
4.2 MODEL CONSTRUCTION 78
4.2.1 Conceptual Model Design 78
4.2.2 Classical Model Structure 81
4.2.3 CPFR Model Structure 85
4.2.4 CCU Model 86
4.3 MODEL VALIDATION 88
4.3 SIMULATION 91
4.3.1 Scenario Design 92
4.3.2 Base Run 93
4.3.3 Step Demand 95
4.3.4 Sin Wave Demand 98
4.3.5 Ramp Demand 101
4.3.6 Pulse Demand 104
4.4 CONCLUSION 107
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION 109
REFERENCE 111
APPENDIX A MODELS & EQUATIONS 116
A-1 CLASSICAL MODEL DESIGN 116
A-2 CPFR MODEL DESIGN 124
A-3 CCU MODEL DESIGN 132

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