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博碩士論文 etd-0726107-094253 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0726107-094253
論文名稱
Title
高頻資料累積波動估計的研究
Studies on the Estimation of Integrated Volatility for High Frequency Data
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
42
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2007-06-20
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2007-07-26
關鍵字
Keywords
真實價格的累積波動、高頻資料、微結構噪音、漸進效率、收斂速率
Asymptotic efficiency, Convergence rate, Microstructure noise, High frequency data, Realized integrated volatility
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5712 次,被下載 1162
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5712 times, has been downloaded 1162 times.
中文摘要
在微結構理論的研究中,如何估計高頻資料中真實價格的累積波動是一個重
要的問題。Bandi 和 Russell (2006) 提出如何求最佳取樣頻率的方法,而Zhang
等人 (2005) 則提出了一個「兩個尺度」的統計量來解決這個問題。在這篇論文
中,我們提出了一個建立在訊干比統計量的累積波動估計值,其收斂速率是
Op (n^(−1/ 4) )。這個方法可以應用在常數及隨機波動模型,且改善了Zhang 等人 (2005)
估計值為Op (n^(−1/ 6) ) 的收斂速度。此外在常數波動模型下,我們證明了此統計量達
到與最大概似估計值相同的漸近效率。另外,我們分別對微結構噪音的變異數與
真實對數報酬率的四階動差提出了不偏估計量,其結果有助於累積波動的估計。
對本篇提出的估計值,我們將探討其理論的漸近性質與效率性,並藉由模擬的方
法進行驗證。
Abstract
Estimating the integrated volatility of high frequency realized prices is an important
issue in microstructure literature. Bandi and Russell (2006) derived the optimal-sampling
frequency, and Zhang et al. (2005) proposed a "two-scales estimator" to solve the problem.
In this study, we propose a new estimator based on a signal to noise ratio statistic with
convergence rate of Op (n^(−1/ 4) ). The method is applicable to both constant and stochastic
volatility models and modi‾es the Op (n^(−1/ 6) ) convergence rate of Zhang et al. (2005). The
proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotic e±cient as the maximum likelihood estimate
for the constant volatility case. Furthermore, unbiased estimators of the two elements, the
variance of the microstructure noise and the fourth moment of the realized log returns, are
also proposed to facilitate the estimation of integrated volatility. The asymptotic prop-
erties and e®ectiveness of the proposed estimators are investigated both theoretically and
via simulation study.
目次 Table of Contents
1 Introduction 1
2 Literature review 3
3 An estimator based on Snr 5
3.1 Covariance matrix of the estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.2 Modified estimator of E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.3 Modified unbiased estimators of Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
4 Approximate solutions and asymptotic efficiency 13
4.1 Approximate solutions to µi's . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4.2 Asymptotic efficiency of the proposed estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
5 Simulation results 14
5.1 Q and M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5.2 Integrated volatility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
6 Conclusion 16
Appendix A 17
Appendix B 22
Appendix C 27
References 36
參考文獻 References
[1] Aijt-Sahalia, Y., Mykland, P. A., and Zhang, L. (2005), "How Often to Sample a Continuous-
Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies,
18, 351-416.
[2] Bandi, F.M., Russell, J.R. (2004), "Microstructure Noise, Realized Variance, and Optimal
Sampling," Unpublished working paper, University of Chicago.
[3] Bandi, F.M., Russell, J.R.,(2006), "Separating Microstructure Noise from Volatility, Journal
of Financial Economics, 79, 655-692.
[4] Barndor®-Nielsen, O.E., Shephard, N. (2002), "Econometric Analysis of Realized Volatility
and Its Use in Estimating Stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical
Society, Series B, 64, 253-280.
[5] Cox, J. C., J. E. Ingersoll, and S. A. Ross, 1985, "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest
Rates," Econometrica, 53, 385-408.
[6] Kelley, W.G. and Peterson, A.C. (2000), "Di®erence Equations: An Introduction with Appli-
cations," 2nd edition. Academic press, New York.
[7] Zhang, L., Mykland, P., Aijt-Sahalia, Y. (2005), "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining
Integrated Volatility with Noisy High-frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical
Association, 100, 1394-1411.
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