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論文名稱 Title |
高頻資料累積波動估計的研究 Studies on the Estimation of Integrated Volatility for High Frequency Data |
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系所名稱 Department |
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畢業學年期 Year, semester |
語文別 Language |
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學位類別 Degree |
頁數 Number of pages |
42 |
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研究生 Author |
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指導教授 Advisor |
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召集委員 Convenor |
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口試委員 Advisory Committee |
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口試日期 Date of Exam |
2007-06-20 |
繳交日期 Date of Submission |
2007-07-26 |
關鍵字 Keywords |
真實價格的累積波動、高頻資料、微結構噪音、漸進效率、收斂速率 Asymptotic efficiency, Convergence rate, Microstructure noise, High frequency data, Realized integrated volatility |
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統計 Statistics |
本論文已被瀏覽 5712 次,被下載 1162 次 The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5712 times, has been downloaded 1162 times. |
中文摘要 |
在微結構理論的研究中,如何估計高頻資料中真實價格的累積波動是一個重 要的問題。Bandi 和 Russell (2006) 提出如何求最佳取樣頻率的方法,而Zhang 等人 (2005) 則提出了一個「兩個尺度」的統計量來解決這個問題。在這篇論文 中,我們提出了一個建立在訊干比統計量的累積波動估計值,其收斂速率是 Op (n^(−1/ 4) )。這個方法可以應用在常數及隨機波動模型,且改善了Zhang 等人 (2005) 估計值為Op (n^(−1/ 6) ) 的收斂速度。此外在常數波動模型下,我們證明了此統計量達 到與最大概似估計值相同的漸近效率。另外,我們分別對微結構噪音的變異數與 真實對數報酬率的四階動差提出了不偏估計量,其結果有助於累積波動的估計。 對本篇提出的估計值,我們將探討其理論的漸近性質與效率性,並藉由模擬的方 法進行驗證。 |
Abstract |
Estimating the integrated volatility of high frequency realized prices is an important issue in microstructure literature. Bandi and Russell (2006) derived the optimal-sampling frequency, and Zhang et al. (2005) proposed a "two-scales estimator" to solve the problem. In this study, we propose a new estimator based on a signal to noise ratio statistic with convergence rate of Op (n^(−1/ 4) ). The method is applicable to both constant and stochastic volatility models and modi‾es the Op (n^(−1/ 6) ) convergence rate of Zhang et al. (2005). The proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotic e±cient as the maximum likelihood estimate for the constant volatility case. Furthermore, unbiased estimators of the two elements, the variance of the microstructure noise and the fourth moment of the realized log returns, are also proposed to facilitate the estimation of integrated volatility. The asymptotic prop- erties and e®ectiveness of the proposed estimators are investigated both theoretically and via simulation study. |
目次 Table of Contents |
1 Introduction 1 2 Literature review 3 3 An estimator based on Snr 5 3.1 Covariance matrix of the estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.2 Modified estimator of E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.3 Modified unbiased estimators of Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4 Approximate solutions and asymptotic efficiency 13 4.1 Approximate solutions to µi's . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.2 Asymptotic efficiency of the proposed estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 5 Simulation results 14 5.1 Q and M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 5.2 Integrated volatility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 6 Conclusion 16 Appendix A 17 Appendix B 22 Appendix C 27 References 36 |
參考文獻 References |
[1] Aijt-Sahalia, Y., Mykland, P. A., and Zhang, L. (2005), "How Often to Sample a Continuous- Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies, 18, 351-416. [2] Bandi, F.M., Russell, J.R. (2004), "Microstructure Noise, Realized Variance, and Optimal Sampling," Unpublished working paper, University of Chicago. [3] Bandi, F.M., Russell, J.R.,(2006), "Separating Microstructure Noise from Volatility, Journal of Financial Economics, 79, 655-692. [4] Barndor®-Nielsen, O.E., Shephard, N. (2002), "Econometric Analysis of Realized Volatility and Its Use in Estimating Stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 64, 253-280. [5] Cox, J. C., J. E. Ingersoll, and S. A. Ross, 1985, "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, 53, 385-408. [6] Kelley, W.G. and Peterson, A.C. (2000), "Di®erence Equations: An Introduction with Appli- cations," 2nd edition. Academic press, New York. [7] Zhang, L., Mykland, P., Aijt-Sahalia, Y. (2005), "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High-frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 100, 1394-1411. |
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