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博碩士論文 etd-0727110-115033 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0727110-115033
論文名稱
Title
區隔或整合?台灣股票市場與不動產市場之互動
Segmented or Integrated? The Interaction between Taiwan Stock Market and Real Estate Market
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
94
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2010-07-19
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2010-07-27
關鍵字
Keywords
股票市場、市場不完美、門檻誤差修正模型、不動產市場
stock market, market imperfection, threshold vector error correction model, real estate market
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5698 次,被下載 1723
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5698 times, has been downloaded 1723 times.
中文摘要
做為家戶投資組合中最重要的兩類資產,股票市場與不動產市場之間的關連性特別受到普羅大眾的重視,但相關的文獻卻呈現出衝突的結果。早期的文獻如Goodman (1981)、Ibbotson and Siegel (1984) 與Liu et al. (1990)等,認為美國股市跟不動產市場之間因為間接性障礙的存在而產生了區隔(segmentation);然而許多後續實證如Liu and Mei (1992)、Li and Wang (1995) 與Ling and Naranjo (1999)等卻指出不動產與股票市場之間存在整合關係(integration),因為兩者的報酬都會受到共同因子的影響。
面對過往文獻的不一致,本文認為這可能是受到市場不完美的影響。後續即以台灣股票市場與不動產市場作為研究對象,進行門檻誤差修正模型之配置。實證結果支持本文的論點:當股票與不動產市場之間長期均衡偏離較大時,這兩個市場都會朝整合關係收斂,;但是當兩者之間的偏離較小時,因為不動產市場潛在的交易成本較高,使其價格無法收斂,此時僅股票市場會進行調整,不動產市場並沒有反應,因而呈現市場區隔的現象。本文後續亦使用不同的房價代理變數,也考慮納入外生的總體變數,實證結果仍具穩健性。
Abstract
As the two main components of household portfolios, stocks and real estate are likely to catch people’s attention. Although the number of extant studies on the interaction between the stock and real estate markets is large, the views and empirical evidence in those studies show inconsistent results. This dissertation provides an explanation for the inconsistent results: market imperfection. Employing the threshold vector error correction model to examine the interaction between Taiwan’s stock and real estate markets during the period from 1973Q2 to 2009Q4, the empirical results support this explanation. When the transaction benefit from the disequilibrium between the stock and real estate markets can cover the potential cost resulting from market imperfection, the relationship between the stock and real estate markets is integrated; but when there is slight disequilibrium, the price of real estate will not converge since the arbitrage benefit cannot cover the cost of transaction. As a result, the relationship is segmented. The empirical results of the study are very robust as similar conclusions result when different proxies for housing prices are used. The interactions between the stock and the sub-region housing markets also show similar results. Finally, when macroeconomic factors are considered, the asymmetric dynamic relationship is still significant.
目次 Table of Contents
Table of Contents


Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………iii
Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………iv
List of Figures………………………………………………………………………vi
List of Tables………………………………………………………………………vii


Chapter 1 Introduction …………………………………………………………1

1.1 Motivation and Introduction………………………………………………1
1.2 Contribution……………………………………………………………………3


Chapter 2 Literature Review ………………………………………………………5

2.1 The Relationship between Stock and Real Estate Market……………………5
2.2 The Results of Past Empirical Examinations…………………………………7
2.2.1 Literature with Segmented Conclusions
2.2.2 Literature with Integrated Conclusions
2.2.3 Literature with Mixed Results
2.2.4 Literature with International Samples
2.2.5 Comparison and Summary
2.3 Related Studies of Taiwan……………………………………………………23
2.4 A Possible Explanation for the Inconsistent Results…………………………27


Chapter 3 Empirical Model and Econometric Methodology……………………………29

3.1 Stochastic Processes of Stock and Real Estate Returns ……………………29
3.2 Model of the Interactive Relationship between Stock and Real Estate Returns ……30
3.3 Empirical Model: TVECM …………………………………………………32


Chapter 4 Taiwan’s Stock and Real Estate Markets………………………………37

4.1 Related Background …………………………………………………………………37
4.2 Peculiarities of Using Taiwan Data ……………………………………………40


Chapter 5 Empirical Results and Analysis …………………………………………42

5.1 Empirical Data ………………………………………………………………………42
5.2 Preliminary Tests……………………………………………………………………43
5.3 Empirical Results of TVECM…………………………………………………………45
5.4 An Alternative Proxy: the Sinyi Housing Price Index (Existing Housing)……52
5.5 Indirect Support from the Real Estate Stock Index………………………………57


Chapter 6 Robustness ……………………………………………………………………63

6.1 The Stock Market and the Sub-region Housing Markets………………………63
6.2 Macroeconomic Factors………………………………………………………………70


Chapter 7 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………74


Reference……………………………………………………………………………………76




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