本文針對新台幣對美國、日本、英國、南韓、等四個工業國之名目匯率、實質匯率、產出缺口差、通貨膨帳率差，利用Dickey and Fuller(1979 and 1981)檢定方法，檢定時間序列資料是否為定態後，再以Clarida，Gali，and Gertler（1998）模型後續研究的Engel and West(2005)泰勒法則修正模型與運用線性迴歸方式，進一步檢視其運用於新台幣對其他主要工業國家的匯率變化的預測能力。
實證結果顯示，以Engel and West(2005) 泰勒法則修正模型對於1982 年1 月至2008 年6 月台幣對其他四個工業國家之名目匯率變動進行預測時，發現「工業生產指數缺口差變動率」在百分之五的顯著水準下，在大部份預測期間上皆無法拒絕係數為零之虛無假設，然其
他變數如「實質匯率」及「通貨膨脹缺口差」之變動率則拒絕估計係數為零的虛無假設。因此估計結果顯示名目匯率具樣本內之可預測性，而此亦顯示泰勒法則在匯率之樣本內預測上之實用性。

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第一章、 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的............................. 1
第二節 本文架構................................... 2
第二章、 文獻回顧
第一節 購買力平價匯率決定理論...................... 6
第二節 價格伸縮模型－貨幣學派理論.................. 9
第三節 價格固定模型－Dornbusch 的過度調整貨幣模型. 10
第四節 資產組合平衡模型.......................... 14
第五節 Taylor 匯率決定模型........................ 17
第三章、 研究方法
第一節 資料來源及說明............................. 24
第二節 模型建立.................................. 27
第三節 計量方法.................................. 29
第四章、 實證研究結果分析
第一節 單根結果.................................. 33
第二節 迴歸模型之實證結果........................ 36
第五章、 結論與建議.................................. 43
參考文獻............................................... 45

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