本文採用動態要素需求模型的架構，並假設廠商以極小化預期未來成本貼現值為目標，並將國際聯繫管道途徑變數:進口技術(IT)、資訊科技(ICT)、外人直接投資(FDI)、貿易(TR)以及經由FDI所產生的外溢效果(FS)引入產業生產技術中，探討分析台灣製造業之產出成長受全球化國際聯繫因素的影響以及動態最適行為之調整過程。實證分析期間與對象為1993~2005年台灣製造業20個產業之產業別資料，並利用一般動差估計法作為計量分析的基礎。其實證結果如下:(1) 台灣製造業整體產出水準，電力電子業占主要的比重，顯示了台灣製造業的重心在電力電子業，也反映出台灣是全世界電子產品的主要代工國家，在R&D支出存量方面，電力電子產業在R&D研發投入方面有較高的能量與技術創新能力，且遠超過製造業其他產業。(2) 在產出成長方面，台灣製造業各產業中之外生技術變動與產出成長間皆存在正向相關。在三個國際聯繫管道與FDI外溢變數對於產出成長貢獻方面:進口技術與產出成長之間互為正相關，然而其力道不如廠商自行從事R&D的研發工作所帶來的產出成長貢獻來得強。在外人直接投資效果對產出成長的影響裡，除石油及煤製造業外，台灣製造業各產業對產出成長的影響幾乎為負向的關係，而FDI所帶來的外溢效果則對產出成長有正向的影響。

The purpose of this research is to analyze the dynamics of innovation and technological diffusion from the channels of international linkage at the microeconomic level. We specify and want to learn about the effects of sectoral innovation and technology transfer with international linkages: Imported technology, Information and Communication Technology, Foreign direct investment and its spillovers and trade. We apply a dynamic factor demand model to analyze the relationship between four channels of international technology transfer and diffusion, allowing for heterogeneous international linkages and their contribution to productive performance on Taiwan’s manufacturing industries. We adopt the econometric method of the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) to estimate the parameters of related equations. Throughout the empirical analysis, we hope to understand how degree of effects the four channels of technology transfer have on firm’s productivity performance and the adjustment process of quasi-fixed input, capital, because of technology transfers. We found that:(1) It has the highest output level in Electrical and Electronic Manufacturing in Taiwan’s manufacturing industry.(2) The exogenous technical change has a positive effect on output growth. As for the channels of international linkage, imported technology and R&D all have positive contribution to productivity. FDI has a negative impact on output growth except for Petroleum & Coal Products Manufacturing, but the effect of the FDI spillover has a positive contribution in the Taiwan’s manufacturing industry.

第一章 緒論....................................................................3
第一節 研究背景與動機.............................................3
第二節 研究方法與全文架構.....................................4
第二章 全球化下國際聯繫對台灣產業的影響現況....6
第三章 文獻回顧............................................................15
第一節 進口技術與生產力之間的關係.....................15
第二節 資訊科技與生產力之間的關係.....................18
第三節 外人直接投資、外溢效果與貿易對生產力之間的關係...21
第四章 動態要素需求模型............................................28
第五章 實證分析............................................................37
第一節 資料來源與變數設定.....................................37
第二節 參數估計及實證結果分析.............................40
第六章 結論與未來研究方向........................................48
參考文獻..........................................................................51
圖表..................................................................................59

行政院國家科學委員會
2005 中華民國科學技術統計要覽
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