電壓閃爍的現象主要是由中、高電壓系統供電的大型電弧爐所造成，另外隨著風力發電機裝設數量及機組容量的增加，在不穩定的風速情形下，產生波動的輸出電力，也會造成電力系統發生程度不一的電壓閃爍現象，影響鄰近匯流排照明及電子設備等之性能。電弧爐主要被來熔解鐵料，由於工作過程中之負載變化，呈現動態的現象，這些動態變化的現象，具有長期持續性的特性，可以顯示特殊碎形維度的結構，藉由碎形結構的鑑別可以理解時間序列背後所隱藏的動態行為與結構。
本論文應用非線性預測模式於電弧爐產生電壓閃爍之預測，良好的電壓閃爍預測能力將有助於用戶管理決策及電力公司使用，協助電弧爐廠改善電壓閃爍問題。本研究利用多台電壓閃爍分析儀器，至擁有電弧爐的工廠，進行實地的同步量測，來探討電壓閃爍時間序列隨機變化行為，透過相空間重建原理，並利用里亞普諾夫指數，建立三種不同的預測模型。本論文以實測之電弧爐電壓閃爍資料研究測試結果顯示，短期的電壓閃爍值的預測是可行的。
亞洲部份國家採用∆V10電壓閃爍標準，由於IEEE及多國管制規範準則鼓勵採用IEC電壓閃爍標準，如何建立不同電壓閃爍標準之間合理的轉換比率以做為電壓閃爍規範，本文利用於電弧爐廠內同步紀錄Pst及∆V10評估標準之量測數值，透過統計方法之演算，歸納研究出兩類標準之間合理的轉換比率關係。本文也以實際運轉資料來歸納整理出不同電壓等級間實用的電壓閃爍轉移因數，此有助於電壓閃爍之規範。

Voltage (lighting) flicker is mainly caused by the electric arc furnaces (EAF) facility supplied by the medium and high voltage power network. In addition to that, because of the increase of wind power generation in both quantity and capacity, intermittent power output of wind turbines under wind speed variation could also cause voltage flickers that affect the performance of lighting and electronics devices in the neighboring feeder buses. Successful voltage flicker prediction and propagation estimation would help both utility and customers in dealing with the problem. This dissertation presents a nonlinear model for the short term prediction of voltage flicker due to EAF operations.
In this study, synchronized voltage flicker measurement was conducted at several EAF facilities to understand the stochastic behavior of voltage flicker. The electric loading condition during EAF melting process shows a long term qualitative behavior of a dynamic system and illustrates a special structure of a fractal system. With the fractal structure identification, the behavior hidden behind the voltage flicker time series measurement could be grasped. Using a phase space reconstruction technique and Lyapunov exponent (LE) of state trajectory in the phase space, based on actual voltage flicker measurements, it is proved that the voltage flicker time series is chaos. By using LE, three formulations are adopted to build the prediction models and illustrate the feasibility of short term EAF voltage flicker prediction.
Currently, some Asian countries are using the Japanese ΔV10 flicker voltage standard. Due to the adoption of IEC standard by IEEE and European countries, a rational conversion of flicker planning limits between different standards would help utilities consider revising or changing their voltage flicker standards and planning limits. Statistical analyses of Pst and ΔV10 measurement are conducted in this study. Under different EAF types and operation conditions, reasonable conversion factors between Pst and ΔV10 standards are derived, and the flicker transfer factor between different voltage levels of the power supply system are presented.

中文摘要 II
英文摘要 III
誌謝 V
目錄 VI
圖目錄 IX
表目錄 XII
名詞及符號參數解釋 XIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 文獻回顧 3
1.3 研究目的及內容 9
1.4 主要成果 10
1.5 論文架構 10
第二章 電弧爐與電壓閃爍介紹 12
2.1 交流電弧爐 13
2.2 直流電弧爐 14
2.3 電壓閃爍之涵義 15
2.4 UIE/IEC標準之電壓閃爍評估指標 16
2.5 等效10Hz標準之電壓閃爍評估指標 22
2.6 電壓閃爍管制要點 24
2.7 電壓閃爍轉移現象 28
第三章 混沌理論 32
3.1 混沌現象與特性 33
3.1.1 非線性動態行為 35
3.1.2 對初始條件的敏感性 36
3.1.3 奇異吸子的存在 37
3.2 碎形 39
3.3 混沌時間序列的鑑別 40
3.3.1 里亞普諾夫指數 40
3.3.2 相關維度 45
第四章 以相空間為基礎之時間序列預測 46
4.1 相空間之建構 46
4.2 以自相關函數決定延遲時間 49
4.3 以G-P演算法決定相關維度 50
4.4 以C-C法決定相關維度與延遲時間 53
4.5 時間序列預測方法 58
4.6 預測流程與誤差統計指標 70
第五章 電壓閃爍序列分析與預測 73
5.1 電壓閃爍量測資料 73
5.2 電壓閃爍資料之量測與統計分析 77
5.3 相空間參數的決定 85
5.3.1 自相關函數與G-P演算法 85
5.3.2 C-C法 88
5.4 混沌時間序列的鑑別 90
5.4.1 里亞普諾夫指數分析 90
5.4.2 相關維度分析 90
5.5 電壓閃爍時間序列之預測 92
5.5.1 不同相空間參數建構方式下的預測比較 92
5.5.2 採用C-C演算對不同預測方法之準確性分析 94
5.5.3 不同的訓練資料長度測試 100
5.5.4 其他非線性預測法之比較 101
第六章 結論與未來研究方向 104
6.1結論 104
6.2未來研究方向 105
參考文獻 107

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