過去五十年來，人類的活動更加快速且廣泛的改變生態系統。目前全世界有近40%的人口，居住於距離海岸地區一百公里之內的地區，而海岸生態系統是非常脆弱的，隨著人口密度和資源使用率不斷的增加，海岸生態系統將會因此而受傷害。特別是珊瑚礁生態系統，目前，全世界的珊瑚礁生態系統逐漸遭到破壞，因此必需要改善目前生態系統的管理方法。過去最大化開採自然資源的目標，並符合永續發展的方式，我們需要的是一個調適性（adaptive）的生態系統管理工具。因此，生態系統模式即成為提供決策者作參考依據的重要工具，特別是可整合社會與經濟的生態管理模式。本研究提出一個整合模式架構，結合生態模式Ecopath with Ecosim（生物質量平衡與符合實際的生態系統描述）與容易建立和結合不同功能需求的系統動力學。本研究也提供了二個研究案例，展示如何運用此整合模式架構，擴充模式的功能、發展出評估生態系統永續發展性的動態指標、利用軟體PEST評估最佳參數組合、模式校正與利用網格，空間化模式的方法。

Over the past 50 years, human activity has altered ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history. Subject to rising population densities (40 % of the people in the world living within 100 kilometres of the coast) and resources exploitation rates, coastal ecosystems are among the most vulnerable. Particularly at risk are coral reefs ecosystems, whose recent decline worldwide calls for an urgent shift in management strategies. Maximizing short-term yield rather than securing long-term sustainability can no longer be the objective of natural resources agencies and adaptive ecosystem management imposes now itself as the most adequate tool. As a decision-making support, ecosystem models are becoming an essential part of it, especially when integrated with socio-economic systems. This study presents such an integrated modelling framework that combines the strengths of the Ecopath with Ecosim approach (mass-balance equilibrium and realistic ecosystem description) with the modular capability of the System Dynamics approach. Two cases studies are presented in order to demonstrate potential ways to expand the scope of the model by adding generic model structures, as well as the development of dynamic indicators of ecosystem sustainability, the use of the PEST software for parameter estimation/regularisation and model calibration, and the spatialization of the model over a grid of cells.

Abstract i
摘要 ii
Contents iii
List of figures v
List of tables vii
Chapter one: Introduction 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Ecosystem-Based Management 2
Chapter two: Literature review 5
2.1. Requirements for an Ecosystem-Based Management Model 5
2.2. Ecopath with Ecosim 6
2.3. System Dynamics 8
Chapter three: Methodology 9
3.1. Introduction to System Dynamics 9
3.2. Ecosystem sector 11
3.2.1. The Lotka-Volterra model 11
3.2.2. Enhancements to the Lotka-Volterra model 13
3.2.3. The Ecosim model 14
3.2.3.1. Primary production in Ecosim 14
3.2.3.2. Consumption in Ecosim 16
3.3. Socioeconomic sector 21
Chapter four: Case studies 24
4.1. Tapong bay 24
4.1.1. Introduction 24
4.1.2. Model formulation 26
4.1.2.1. Base run 26
4.1.2.2. Removal simulation 30
4.1.3. Model modification 32
4.1.4. Model calibration 34
4.1.4.1. Parameter estimation 34
4.1.4.2. Parameter regularisation 35
4.1.5. Results 39
4.1.6. Conclusion 43
4.2. Nanwan bay 45
4.2.1. Introduction 45
4.2.2. Model spatialization 47
4.2.2.1. Spatial movements 48
4.2.2.2. Other spatial considerations 50
4.2.2.3. Initial maps and spatial equilibrium 50
4.2.3. Model modification 59
4.2.3.1. Tourism subsector 60
4.2.3.2. Coral subsector 63
4.2.4. Model results 64
4.2.5. Conclusion 68
Chapter five: Conclusions and future work 70
References 71

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