2008年2月，中國沿岸流異常入侵澎湖海域，造成大量珊瑚及魚類凍死，也因澎湖當地居民多以箱網養殖維生，故造成經濟巨大的損失，也讓海洋生態系統造成嚴重的災害，此事件稱為寒害事件，對於在未來極端天氣與氣候趨勢越頻繁之際，預報機制的發展實有其必要性。
為了解寒害發生的機制與過程並提供預測之方法，本研究分別以迴歸模式與數值模式進行探討。迴歸模式以澎湖過去幾天記錄之海溫以逐步迴歸方法建立澎湖海溫預測公式最佳，若以每日平均海溫來預測，如以2008年做為案例，其當日結果均方根誤差約為0.3度，預測後一日均方根誤差約為0.7度，而預測後兩日約為1.1度，若考慮日夜海溫變化改以每6小時海溫為平均，其結果較每日平均海溫預測之當日及後一日為佳，其均方根誤差分別為0.2度及0.5度。
數值模式以2008年及2011年寒潮其間作為案例，模擬結果顯示大陸沿岸低溫海水在較強之東北風影響下被帶至澎湖區域，造成海溫下降約3~4度，而2011年之案例模擬結果顯示，在風速較強大之情況下澎湖海域之海溫僅下降約2~3度，主因為台灣東北角之黑潮受東北季風影響而進入台灣海峽，故使海溫稍高於2008年之紀錄。
如利用HYCOM多年重分析資料利用迴歸模式導出預測公式，並模擬案例2008年及2011年之資料，修正供迴歸預測公式，其結果較原先數值模式為佳，且預測海溫與實測值差異較小。如能從數值模式的結果中預先得知中國沿岸流可能入侵澎湖海域之現象，再結合迴歸模式以預測海溫變化，則可能預先透過預測結果來提出預警之可能。

In February 2008, a lot of fishes were killed by cold water at Penghu, which was caused by the exceptional cold water intrusion of China Coastal Current. The event was called Cold Disaster, which brought huge losses to the local aquaculture and serious impact on the local marine ecosystem. According to statistics, Cold Disaster happened every 30 years from 1937 to 2011, which did great damage to the local economy and ecosystem at Penghu. Therefore, to study the process of Cold Disaster will help us to more understand the whole process of oceanic dynamics of the Taiwan Strait in winter and make a good disaster prevention.
In this study, a correlation analysis is chosen to predict the sea temperature. Analysis data come from stations at Penghu and at the western coast of Taiwan. The strong correlation factors are selected by Penghu SST, and these factors are such as sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind speed, air pressure, etc. However, this study only considers winter data from December to February. Regression is done by the Fourier or quadratic regression analysis. Predicted values are fed by the stepwise regression to build the predictive equation of sea surface temperature at Penghu.
Next, the numerical model of ocean is used to simulate the phenomenon of exception cold water intrusion in 2008. And then temperature and velocities from model are analyzed in order to understand the process of Cold Disaster.
By using the process of cold disasters in 2008 and in 2011 to testify the numerical models, the result shows that the low temperature of sea surface at Penghu was mainly due to the northeast monsoon. However, in 2011, the wind was still strong but there was no low temperature of sea surface at Penghu. The main cause was due to the northeast monsoon that brought the Kuroshio into the Taiwan Strait in the northeast of Taiwan, so that the sea surface temperature at Penghu in 2011 was not so low as usual.
By combining the numerical model and regression model to SST forecast, the root mean square error is about 1-2 degrees. Thus, the numerical models and regression models can be combined to do SST forecast.

論文審定書 i
論文公開授權書 ii
誌謝 iii
中文摘要 iv
ABSTRACT v
圖目錄 x
表目錄 xiv
第1章 緒論 1
1-1 前言 1
1-2 動機與目的 3
1-3 研究架構 5
第2章 文獻回顧 6
2-1 研究區域說明 6
2-1-1 台灣海峽地形分布 6
2-1-2 台灣海峽氣候變化 7
2-1-3 台灣海峽流場分布變化 8
2-2 澎湖寒害相關研究 11
2-2-1 歷年的寒害事件 11
2-2-2 事件成因 11
2-2-3 2008年寒害事件 13
2-2-4 小結 17
第3章 研究方法與材料 18
3-1 預測模式 18
3-1-1 迴歸模式 19
3-1-2 數值模式 19
3-1-3 小結 20
3-2 迴歸模式簡介 21
3-2-1 資料品管 21
3-2-2 建立相關因子擬合公式 21
3-2-3 建立預報模式 21
3-3 數值模式-SCHISM簡介 22
3-3-1 控制方程式 22
3-3-2 模式特性 25
3-4 區域背景資料 28
3-4-1 台灣海峽冬季測站海溫 29
3-4-2 台灣海峽冬季風速與風向 30
3-5 寒害期間資料分析 32
3-5-1 2008年基本資料分析 32
3-5-2 2011年基本資料分析 35
3-5-3 小結 38
第4章 迴歸模式 40
4-1 迴歸模式建置流程 40
4-2 擬合公式建立與測試 40
4-2-1 因子篩選準則 40
4-2-2 馬祖資料預測因子測試 44
4-2-3 澎湖海溫預測因子測試 46
4-2-4 澎湖移動平均海溫及每六小時平均因子測試 48
4-2-5 小結 53
第5章 數值模式 54
5-1 模式建置 54
5-1-1 網格設定 54
5-2 水動力模式潮汐率定 56
5-2-1 底床摩擦係數公式測試 57
5-2-2 邊界微調 59
5-3 潮汐結果與分析 60
5-3-1 各站時序比對 60
5-3-2 調和常數比對 63
5-4 寒害案例設計 64
5-4-1 案例氣象設定 64
5-4-2 模式設定 64
5-4-3 案例一：2008年結果分析 65
5-4-4 案例二：2011年結果分析 70
5-4-5 小結 74
5-5 綜合討論-迴歸模式與數值模式 77
第6章 結論與建議 79
6-1 總結 79
6-2 建議 80
參考文獻 81
附錄 一 各年迴歸預測結果(每日) 87
附錄 二 各年迴歸預測結果(每6小時) 91
附錄 三 調和分析圖 93
附錄 四 調和分析圖(調整過後) 101
附錄 五 各測站潮汐圖 109

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