1999年歐元出現後，亞洲共同貨幣成了一個重要的的研究議題，而區域內國家要採用共同貨幣最重要的前提是其景氣循環是否一致。本研究分析亞洲國家面臨共同衝擊時，是否受相同程度的影響與是否有相似的反應。
本研究實證結果發現，第一：亞洲國家除了泰國與印尼以外，其他樣本國家明顯受日本的影響較美國大。第二：馬來西亞與菲律賓明顯受泰國影響，顯見亞洲經濟圈已逐漸成型。本研究同時也發現日本與南韓的景氣循環有一定程度的同步性，與Hazel (2001)的部分研究結果相符；泰國、馬來西亞與菲律賓的景氣循環也有相當高程度的同步性。

Since the Euro has founded in 1999, the Asian Currency has become an important issue. The most important prerequisite for adopting common currency for the countries in the area is the synchronization of business cycle. This paper analyses the degree and responses of business cycles for Asian countries when they face to the common shocks. The empirical findings from this paper can be summarized as follows. First, the shocks of Japanese economy are more important to Asian countries than the shocks from the United States, except for Thailand and Indonesia. Second, Malaysia and the Philippine are substantially influenced by the Thailand. Therefore, the Asian economy is evidently forming its regional (or bloc) economy continually. The findings from this paper are in the same line with the result from Hazel (2001), who concludes the business cycles of Japan and Korea are commoved. The degree of synchronization of business cycles for Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippine are quite high as well.

第一章 前言……………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究目的與架構………………………………… 2
第二章 文獻回顧………………………………………… 4
第一節 共同貨幣理論…………………………………… 4
第二節 景氣循環………………………………………… 6
第三章 研究方法與模型…………………………………10
第一節 穩定數列…………………………………………10
第二節 單根檢定…………………………………………10
第三節 向量自我迴歸……………………………………12
第四節 衝擊反應函數……………………………………14
第五節 變異數分解………………………………………16
第六節 最適落後期數的判定……………………………17
第四章 實證結果與分析…………………………………19
第一節 實證模型、變數與資料來源……………………20
第二節 單根檢定…………………………………………22
第三節 VAR 實證結果與分析……………………………24
第五章 結論與建議………………………………………41
第一節 結論………………………………………………41
第二節 建議………………………………………………43
參考文獻…………………………………………………46

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