沿海環境是一極複雜敏感地區，每當洩油事件發生，對於海洋生態環境、臨海工業區及休憩遊樂區將造成嚴重影響，若未能即時處理，傷害程度將難以回復。目前國內對於周圍海域發生洩油事件並無完整之風險評估，致使空有除油設施卻無法即時有效發揮功效。若能在洩油初期有效掌握其擴散位置，方能讓災害降到最低。現今洩油防制仍有許多不足處，雖無法立即阻止事件發生，但若能推估洩油事件發生時之油團走向，即可在傷害擴大前即早處理。據此為能掌握洩油擴散情況，本研究採用歐盟（European Union, EU）所研發的洩油模式，依據台灣海域海氣象條件，發展本土化洩油應用模式，以了解當洩油事件發生時，台灣沿海生態敏感區、工業區、卸油平台等所受之衝擊影響。
本研究目的在於依據可能發生事件之地點、影響之區域，輸入當地之海洋環境來模擬油團移動路徑，預估油團抵達敏感區所需時間。因此將分析探討台灣東、西、南、北以及澎湖等海域在季風期可能發生洩油污染之原因，進而根據航道交會處、卸油平台及歷史事件來訂定洩油風險區域，以當地風速、風向、海溫、流場等作為參數，輸入模式中模擬洩油的軌跡，針對可能發生洩油事件之海域進行風險評估分析。在研究期間，蘇澳外海曾發生吉尼號洩油事件，實際污染範圍大約在蘇澳港以南至南澳之間，與本模式模擬情形大致相符，可證明本模式模擬具有實際應用價值。
由於本研究所採用的風場資料是以定量定向方式去模擬油團移動情形，此方法不足以完整描述區域風場對油團移動之影響，故期望未來可對風場預測加入機率之概念，將風場歷史資料區分成不同風速及風向情況進行統計分析，以便了解不同時期之風場分佈，進而了解油團可能移動範圍，進而能更加快速且準確處理洩油災害，讓環境破壞降至最輕。
本研究希冀在洩油事件發生時，可即早掌握油團移動位置，一方面提供相關單位加強管理及建置預警系統，一方面提供洩油事件發生後的應變諮詢，讓現場指揮者有多項訊息來指揮調度並啟動其應變機制，將洩油發生的衝擊降至最低。

Coastal environment is extremely sensitive area. The presence of oil and petroleum residues in the marine environment results from abusive spillages by ships and boats to the detriment of marine ecosystems navigation, and commercial actives such as fisheries, coastal industry development, and tourism; as well as to coastal resources when the oil reaches land. Up to now, there still isn’t a complete evaluation and solution for the oil-spill risks in Taiwan. It is very important to organize and prepare an operational response for coastal oil pollution accidents. The use of computer models to predict the movement of oil helps to make best use of the various measures and equipment that can be employed in case of an oil spill accident.
In this study, the numerical model MEDSLIK is used to directly model the transport of oil for the coast sea around Taiwan. MEDSLIK is a 3D oil spill model designed to predict the transport, fate and weathering of an oil spill. The MEDSLIK oil spill model in pre-operational mode was first developed in 1997 (Lardner et al. 1998) to assist the objectives of the EU LIFE project “Subregional contingency Plan for Preparedness and response to Major Pollution Incidents in the Eastern Mediterranean-Levantine”. The software consists of three parts, a graphical input interface through which the user enters data concerning the spill and environmental conditions, a run module that performs the computations that simulate the spill behaviors and a graphical output interface by means of which the user can examine the predictions of the model.
The aim of this study is to adopt MEDSLIK model to predict the expected state of the oil when it arrives at a given location around Taiwan. The input data includes the type of oil and its characteristics, forecasts of wind direction and strength, sea temperature, currents and conditions at sea. By using MEDSLIK oil spill model to simulate the Tzini oil-spill accident, the oil disperses between the south part of Suao Harbor and Naao. The modeling results compare well with the actual situation.
The main result is the MEDSLIK model provides the oil-spill movement pattern around Taiwan Sea and answers questions such as how much will evaporate, how much will be dispersed as fine droplets in the water, where the oil spill is most likely move to, and how soon it will get there. However, the wind input data is quantitative in this study. Future tasks must fully account the impact of regional wind field to oil movement and emphasize on anticipating likely impacts on the coast and provide an early warming and mitigation tool to plan an effective response to keep oil away from key coastal resources.

中文摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VIII
表目錄 XII
第一章 緒論 1-1
1-1 前言 1-1
1-2 研究動機 1-2
1-3 研究目的 1-4
1-4 研究方法 1-5
1-5 研究架構 1-6
第二章 國內外海洋油污染事件回顧與台灣海氣象條件 2-1
2-1 國內外海洋油污染事件回顧 2-1
2-1-1 國際間重大海洋油污染事件回顧 2-1
2-1-2 國際間重大海洋污染分析 2-4
2-1-3 台灣海域重大海洋油污染事件回顧 2-7
2-1-4 台灣海域油污染事件分析 2-8
2-2 台灣的海氣象條件 2-10
2-2-1 季節風 2-10
2-2-2 颱風 2-14
2-2-3 海流 2-16
2-2-4 潮汐 2-18
2-2-5 波浪 2-22
2-2-6 海水溫度 2-25
2-3 台灣沿海敏感區 2-28
2-3-1 生態敏感區 2-28
2-3-2 台灣五大國際商港 2-30
2-3-3 台灣沿岸的電力設施 2-32
2-3-4 台灣附近海域之航道 2-34
2-4 數值模式對於洩油污染事件之探討 2-36
第三章 洩油模式介紹與應用 3-1
3-1 MEDSLIK 3-3
3-2 MEDSLIK理論基礎（Lardner et al., 1998） 3-5
3-2-1海岸線邊界條件 3-7
3-3油團宿命 3-8
3-3-1 蒸發作用 3-9
3-3-2 乳化作用 3-13
3-3-3 擴散作用： 3-13
3-4 Mackay’s延展規則 3-18
3-5 MEDSLIK之案例應用（吉尼號） 3-19
第四章 台灣周圍海域洩油風險評估與分析 4-1
4-1 洩油風險區域設定 4-1
4-2 洩油量之制訂 4-8
4-3 洩漏油品之制訂 4-9
4-4 台灣海域環境資料之訂定 4-11
4-4.1 基本潮汐流場 4-11
4-4.2 易發生洩油風險之風場設定 4-12
4-5 模擬結果與探討 4-15
4-5.1 東部海域洩油風險模擬 4-16
4-5.2 西部海域洩油風險模擬 4-24
4-5.3 南部海域洩油風險模擬 4-31
4-5.4 北部海域洩油風險模擬 4-40
4-5.5 澎湖海域洩油風險模擬 4-47
第五章 結論與建議 5-1
5-1 結論 5-1
5-2 未來研究及建議 5-3
參考文獻
附件一 2001-2007年海污事件統計表
附件二 蒲福風級

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