執政者為連任及爭取選票支持，可能利用執政時握有之
權力和政策施行，來塑造出選前經濟繁榮之現象，產生
政治景氣循環或總體政策循環現象。本文採用考慮變數
同期影響之向量自我回歸(VAR)進行統計估計，選擇
對政策制訂和政績表現有較大影響力之立法委員選舉
為實證對象，進行「政治景氣循環」與「總體政策循環」
之實證研究。結果發現台灣並沒有存在「政治景氣循環」
和「總體政策循環」現象，只觀測到選前貨幣供給減少。
為了探討背後原因，在台灣沒存在選前操控經濟之前提，
假設:(a).候選人利用賄選，贏得選票支持;(b).賄選造成
資金需求上漲;(c1)央行以維持經濟成長和物價穩定為
目標執行其貨幣政策; (c2)候選人在競選期間現金貨幣
需求大增。在上述假設下，推論(一):央行會擔心選前
賄選資金浮濫而可能採取選前緊縮貨幣政策。此外(二):
候選人在競選期間需要大量現金從事賄選活動，
將原本計算在貨幣供給餘額下之貨幣資產轉換成現金
持有，透過賄選方式將這些現金發放至選民(或樁腳)
手上，而候選人競選經費可能是以流動性較高之貨幣
資產存放在金融機構中，發放至選民(或樁腳)手上之
賄選資金，將使得金融機構之貨幣資產減少，造成貨幣
市場中之貨幣供給餘額減少。以上兩點提供「為何觀測
到選前貨幣供給減少」的一種可能解釋。

none

第一章 緒論...................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的.........................1
第二節 本文結構...............................2

第二章 政治景氣循環之理論依據.................3
第一節 政治景氣循環...........................3
第二節 總體政策循環...........................5
第三節 黨觀性理論.............................6
第四節 台灣政治景氣循環之研究方向.............8

第三章 政治景氣循環在現實中存在嗎？..........10
第一節 實證研究文獻之回顧....................10
第二節 台灣存在政治景氣循環嗎？..............13

第四章 總體經濟變數之初步分析................15

第五章 實證研究方法..........................22
第一節 VAR模型之設定.........................23
第二節 單根檢定..............................25
第三節 共整合檢定............................28

第六章 實證結果之分析........................33
第一節 變數選取與資料來源....................33
第二節 單根檢定之結果........................33
第三節 共整合檢定之結果......................38
第四節 台灣政治景氣循環之估計結果............39

第七章 為何台灣不存在政治景氣循環?...........44

第八章 結論..................................49

附錄...........................................51
資料來源說明..................................51
統計軟體說明..................................51
資料之時間趨勢................................52

參考文獻.......................................54

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