隨著氣候變遷、全球暖化加劇，永續發展已然成為全球最關注的焦點，永續
發展的範圍，涵蓋了社會、經濟、環境等面向，各個面向環環相扣，牽一髮而動
全身。高雄市以重工業為經濟發展主軸，在追求經濟成長的同時，卻忽略了環境
的自淨作用已無法負荷人類所帶來的迫害，幸而高雄市政府已積極改善環境品
質，包含了河川整治以及空氣汙染監測，開啟了高雄市邁向永續發展的步伐。
本研究參考國內外相關文獻，並依據高雄市之自然環境與人文發展特色，挑
選出適合評量高雄市永續發展之量化指標，基於政府統計資料收集之考量，進而
挑選出高雄市目標規劃之量化永續發展指標系統，並利用迴歸分析尋求各面向之
發展趨勢及整體解釋度，接著利用目標規劃加以情境分析，探究不同導向之施政
方向，將會引領高雄市邁向永續發展或是與永續發展背道而馳。研究結果顯示，
無論何種施政導向，皆須要考量整個大環境，不能獨厚或偏廢任何一個面向，此
結果正好呼應了永續發展必須兼顧各個領域之精神。

As the climate change and global warming getting worse, the sustainable
development has become the most important issue around the world. There are
multiple and interrelated aspects of the sustainable development, including society,
economy, and environment. The development of Kaohsiung’s economy was based on
heavy industry. However, the high economic growth has severely degraded the
environment, such as the environmental capacities have been over the limits due to
human pollution. Fortunately, Kaohsiung city government has strived hard to make
progress toward sustainable development. For example, the environmental quality has
been improved by conducting river renovations and air pollution monitoring.
In order to achieve the goal of sustainability in Kaohsiung, the current study has
developed the goal programming model which is based on the performances of some
key indicators. Such indicator set was carefully selected by referring many domestic
and foreign literatures. Meanwhile, the unique natural environment and society of
Kaohsiung and statistic data were also considered when selecting the indicator set.
Once the indicator set was ready, the regression analysis has been conducted to
describe the future trends of each aspect in relation to the indicators. Finally the goal
programming model was formulated and the scenario analyses were performed to
explore the outcomes under various policies. The results echo the spirit of sustainable
development, that is, the administrative policies have to take into account of all
aspects, such that the sustainability is achievable.

第一章 前言.................................................................................................................1
1.1 研究動機.............................................................................................................1
1.2 研究目的.............................................................................................................2
1.3 研究範圍.............................................................................................................2
1.4 研究流程.............................................................................................................4
第二章 文獻回顧.........................................................................................................6
2.1 永續發展之歷程—以聯合國為例......................................................................6
2.2 永續發展研究與都市永續指標.........................................................................8
2.3 迴歸分析與目標規劃應用之文獻回顧...........................................................22
第三章 研究方法.......................................................................................................25
3.1 指標選取...........................................................................................................25
3.2 迴歸分析...........................................................................................................28
3.3 目標規劃...........................................................................................................31
第四章 系統建置.......................................................................................................34
4.1 模式建置流程...................................................................................................34
4.2 高雄市永續發展之量化指標...........................................................................35
4.3 高雄市目標規劃之量化永續發展指標...........................................................36
4.4 目標規劃與情境分析.......................................................................................40
第五章 模式結果分析...............................................................................................66
5.1 社會健康導向結果分析...................................................................................66
5.2 經濟產值導向結果分析...................................................................................68
5.3 水域品質導向結果分析...................................................................................69
5.4 氣域品質導向結果分析...................................................................................70
第六章 結論與建議...................................................................................................72
6.1 結論...................................................................................................................72
6.2 建議...................................................................................................................73
參考文獻.....................................................................................................................74

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