本研究利用1997年1月至2008年12月間雲林離島式基礎工業區整體環境資源管理評估計畫當中漁業經濟所收集之資料，分析蝦拖網漁業所捕獲經濟性對蝦之種類組成與群聚狀態，並結合環境因子進行分析，以探討雲林沿海海域對蝦類之群聚結構以及其相對豐度的變動模式。研究結果發現雲林地區蝦拖網漁獲主要以：哈氏仿對蝦、刀額新對蝦以及長毛對蝦所組成，三種蝦類之盛漁期分別在12月至隔年5月、3至8月以及7月至隔年3月。經濟性對蝦漁獲組成可以分為三個類型，分別為：冬季(Dec ─ Feb)、春─夏(Mar ─ Jul)、夏末─秋(Aug ─ Nov)。而且對蝦類相對豐度(CPUE: kg / trip)的變動具有明顯的短期自相關性與季節週期特性，對蝦類相對豐度自廻歸至前1個月以及12個月之前的相對豐度，為一個ARIMA(1,0,0)x(1,0,0)12的序列，同時濁水溪流量對經濟性對蝦類的相對豐度也顯現出負影響，且此影響有5個月的延遲，如此可得到一個河川流量與對蝦相對豐度的自回歸方程式。

The variation of the composition of assemblages and the relative abundance of commercial prawns collected from the coastal waters of Yunlin was studied. The data of shrimp fishery was collected from Jan 1997 to Dec 2008 through the program of Integrated Assessment and Management of Environmental Resources for the Industrial District on the Outer-Bank of Yunlin Islands. The dominant species landed in this area are Parapenaeopsis hardwickii, Metapenaeus ensis, and Penaeus penicillatus. Their peak catch seasons are November to May, March to August, and July to March, respectively. The composition of the assemblages of commercial shrimps belonged to three groups according to the seasons: winter (December to February), spring to summer (March to July), and late summer to autumn (August to November). According to time series analysis, the relative abundance is auto-regressed to that of the previous month and the same month one year age. In addition, Jhuo-Shuei river runoff ware correlated to a significant decrease of the shrimp abundance five months later. Based on this information, we obtained a seasonal and factored ARIMA time series equation of the relative abundance of commercial shrimps.

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 III
謝辭 V
目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
圖目錄 IX
1.前言…………………………………………………………………….1
2. 材料與方法 6
2.1. 資料來源 6
2.1.1. 蝦拖網漁業 6
2.1.2. 環境資料 6
2.2. 資料處理 7
2.3. 數據分析 7
2.3.1 樣本船漁獲狀態比較 7
2.3.2 群聚分析 7
2.3.3 時間序列分析 9
3. 結果 12
3.1. 經濟性對蝦相對豐度月別變化情形 12
3.2. 樣本船漁獲狀態比較 13
3.3. 群聚分析 13
3.4. 濁水溪流量月別變動情形 14
3.5. 時間序列分析 14
4. 討論 16
4.1. 雲林蝦拖網漁業狀態 16
4.2. 樣本船漁獲狀態比較 16
4.3. 雲林沿海經濟性對蝦漁獲組成 17
4.4. 經濟性對蝦漁獲組成季節變化 18
4.5. 濁水溪逕流量 20
4.6. 時間序列分析 20
4.7 總結 22
5. 參考文獻 23

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