隨著全球化及知識經濟的到來，組織已面臨高度競爭的經營環境，在資源有限的情況下，如何有效地配置組織資源，聚焦於有潛力的專案，選出高附加價值的專案，並找出最適合的專案組合，目前已經成為重要議題。本研究主要目的是探究國軍專案組合管理決策模式與運作機制，了解其作業方式，並針對專案彼此間存在的特性及關係進行詳細分析。最後提出專案組合選擇決策模式及評量指標，發展一套決策系統提供溝通平台與資訊給決策者與專案管理者，以改善專案組合績效，降低資源排擠效應，強化投資專案與目標連結。

With the advent of globalization and knowledge economic era, organizations have to face an increasingly competitive business environment. With limited resources, it is imperative for organizations to allocate them effectively, to focus on potential projects, to choose high value-added projects, and to find out the proper project portfolio. The purpose of this research is to investigate the decision model and the operational mechanism of project portfolio selection for military investment and to analyze the characteristics of related projects. Finally, this research mainly proposes a decision model for project portfolio selection and the measurement of portfolio performance and develops a portfolio selection decision support system to provide a communicative platform and information for decision makers and project managers. This will improve portfolio performance, reduce the crowding out effect of organizational resources, and enhance the linkage of both project and organizational goals.

論文審定書 I
誌謝 II
中文摘要 III
Abstract IV
目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 VIII

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的與範圍 5
第三節 研究流程 5

第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節 發展脈絡 7
第二節 組合流程 10
第三節 組合方法 22
第四節 績效評量 37
第五節 文獻小結 40

第三章 研究設計 41
第一節 個案研究法 41
第二節 模式推導法 46

第四章 個案分析 49
第一節 個案描述 49
第二節 專案現況 52
第三節 專案組合 57
第四節 問題分析 61
第五章 模式建構 63
第一節 模式概觀 63
第二節 模式建構 70

第六章 模式驗證 87
第一節 情境描述 87
第二節 模式模擬 92
第三節 結果分析 125

第七章 結論與建議 135
第一節 結論 135
第二節 建議 137

參考文獻 139
中文部份 139
英文部份 139

附錄 146
附錄一、訪談大綱 146
附錄二、國軍軍事投資專案發展作業流程 147
附錄三、訪談資料部份逐字稿 150
附錄四、數學模式 153

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國防部，中華民國一○○年國防報告書，初版，國防部，2011

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